Will India, which suspends the Waters’ Indian Agreement affect Pakistan?

Will India be able to stop the Indo River and two of its tributaries go into Pakistan?

This is a question about numerous minds after India has suspended a major contract that regulates the exchange of six rivers in the Indo basin between the two countries, after Tuesday on Tuesday A terrible attack In the Indian released cashmere.

The 1960 water supply agreement (IWT) survived two wars between the nuclear rivals and was considered as an example of trans-border water management.

The suspension is one of the steps that India has taken against Pakistan, accusing him of supporting cross -border terrorism – Islamabad’s accusation strongly denies. He also abandoned mutual measures against Delhi, and stated that the cessation of water flow “would” be considered an act of war. ”

The contract has allocated three eastern rivers – Ravi, Bis and Settles – the India basin, and 80% of the three western ones, Jalum and Chenab – Pakistan.

In the past, the dispute has been flagged, and Pakistan objected to some of the hydropower and water infrastructure projects of India, claiming that they reduce the flows of the river and violate the contract. (More than 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and about a third of hydropower depend on the water pool.)

Meanwhile, India is pushing for consideration and changes in the contract, citing changing needs – from irrigation and drinking water to hydropower – in the light of factors such as climate change.

For many years, Pakistan and India have conducted competing legal ways under the World Bank a contract.

But this is the first time on both sides announced the suspension – and, especially, it is the country up, India, giving it a geographical advantage.

But what does the suspension mean? Can India restrain or distract the water pool by depriving Pakistan? And can even do it?

Experts say that in India it is almost impossible to contain tens of billions of cubic meters of water from Western rivers during high flow periods. There is not enough massive storage infrastructure and wide channels necessary for distraction.

“Infrastructure in India is mainly engaged in hydropower that does not need massive storage,” said Hemanacch Takar, regional water resources expert from the South Asia network, rivers and humans.

Such hydroelectric power plants use the power of running water for spin turbines and produce electricity without holding large volumes of water.

Indian experts point out that insufficient infrastructure contained India from full use of even 20% of Jhelum, Chenab and Indus Waters in the contract – a key reason for the construction of storage structures that Pakistan oppose the link to the contract.

Experts say India can change the existing infrastructure either create new ones to restrain or distract more water without reporting Pakistan.

“Unlike the past, India will not now have to share its design documents with Pakistan,” Mr. Takar said.

But problems such as heavy terrain and protests in India itself over some of its projects meant that the construction of water infrastructure in the Indus basin did not move quickly enough.

Following the attack of militants in Kashmir in 2016, located in the Indian department, in 2016 Representatives of the Ministry of Water Resources India reported BBC They would accelerate the construction of multiple boards and water storage projects in the Indus basin.

Although there is no official information about the status of such projects, the sources say that progress has been limited.

Some experts say that when India begins to control the flow with the existing and potential infrastructure, Pakistan may experience the effect in the arid period when the water is already at the lowest.

“The more urgent concern causes what is happening in the dry season – if the streams on the pool are lower, the storage matters more and the terms become more critical,” wrote Hassan F Khan, Associate Professor of the Department of Environmental Policy and Environmental Studies of the University Tap Dawn Newspaper.

“It is here that the lack of restrictions on the contract can start to feel more acute.”

The contract requires India to share hydrological data with Pakistan – it is important for predicting flooding and watering, hydropower and drinking water.

Prumn Kumar Saxen, former commissioner IWT India for six years, said India’s press agency that the country could stop sharing flood data with Pakistan

In the region there is devastating floods in the monsoon season, which begins in June and lasts until September. But the Pakistani authorities have said India is already sharing very limited hydrological data.

“India only shared about 40% of the data before it made the latest message,” said the BBC URDU, a former Pakistan Commissioner for the Indus Waters.

Another question that arises every time in the region there is a voltage associated with water, is when the country can “arm” the water against the country down the current.

This is often called a “water bomb” where the country can temporarily restrain the water and then suddenly release it without warning, causing great damage down.

Can India do this?

Experts say India first risks flooding its own territory because its dams are far from the Pakistani border. However, it can now throw out silt from its reservoirs without pre -warning – potentially harming Pakistan.

Himalayan rivers, like Indus, carry a high level of sludge, which quickly accumulates in platinum and glazing. Sudden washing of this sludge can lead to significant damage down.

There’s a big picture: India is down from China in the Brahmaputra pool, and Indus is like Tibet.

In 2016, after India warned that “blood and water could not flow” after the belligerent in Kashmir, China, China blocked the influx of laborer tsangpo – which becomes brachmaputra in the northeast of India – as part of the hydropower project.

After building multiple hydropower plants in Tibet in China, there is a green illuminated, which will be the largest dam in the lower achievements of the Tsangpo Jargon.

Beijing claims that the minimum impact on the environment, but India is afraid that it can give China significant control over the flow of the river.