Will India shy trading get the preference in the tariff slowdown?

India is the fifth largest and a rapidly developing large economy in the world.

However, the recent heritage of protectionism and trade policy, oriented inward, held back its global competitiveness.

Him Tariffs are high And the share of global exports remains less than 2%. The huge domestic market of India has fueled its growth – many others are superior, economists claim, largely because the rest of the world is slowing down. But in a tumultuous, increasing protectionist era, India’s instinct to independence can serve as a short shield.

As the countries are fighting the list in response to a change in the US trade policy, the last 90-day Trump pause after the growing weeks gathered and the Indian squad may have helped to shoot the weather that took more economies depending on the trade.

“The decrease in exposure in India on trade in global goods can work for our favor. If the economy managed by export, slow down under pressure tariffs, and we continue to grow by 6%, we will start to look stronger than our big domestic market to retreat,” says Raiszvar Sengopta Scientific research of research development.

“The shy trading advantage has turned into an advantage – but we cannot afford self -resort.

This can be not easy, given the long and complex relationships of India with trade barriers and tariffs.

In his book, the trading policy of India: 1990 and abroad, economist in Colombia and noted that trading expert Arvinda Paniary traces the complex and often contradictory evolution of India’s approach to trade.

In the interwar years, industries such as textiles, and iron and steel, lobbying – and received – a high level of protection. The chronic Second World War deficit led to even more severe control over imports through a complex licensing system.

While Asian peers, such as Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore, have moved to the strategies led by exports in the 1960s – and began to place an impressive growth rate of 8-10% annually – India decided to double replacement. As a result, imports as a GDP share decreased from 10% in 1957-58 to 4% to 1969-70.

By the mid-1960s, India banned the import of folk goods. This not only removed the pressure on domestic manufacturers to improve quality, but also refused access to world -class entrances and technologies.

As a result, Indian products lost competitiveness in world markets and exports stagnated. As a result, the currency deficit led to even more severe control over imports, creating a vicious cycle that stifled growth. Between 1951 and 1981, the per capita income rose at a sluggish rate of only 1.5% a year.

The turning point came in 1991. Faced with the balance of payments crisis, India disassembled many elements of import control and allowed Rupees to be depreciated, which gave a very necessary impetus to exporters and home manufacturers that fight the import. Licensing of imports to consumer goods ended only in 2001 after the World Trade Organization (WTO) brought against it.

The influence was strange: from 2002–03 to 2011–12 exports of goods and services of India rose six times, flying from $ 75 billion to more than $ 400 billion.

With the liberalization of trade and other reforms, India’s income per capita increased in the first 17 years of the 21st century than it was throughout the 20th century, notes. Panagariya.

But the deviation to the trade did not end.

According to prof. Panagariya.

“In many postcolonial states, such as India, there is deeply rooted suspicion that international commerce and trade are just new forms of colonization. Unfortunately, this thinking is still delayed among some politicians,” says Vivek Dehey, Professor of Economics at Carlensky University.

Many economists claim that the decade protectionist policy undermines Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s initiative in India, which was focused on the capital and technological sectors, while postponing work in time-consuming fields as textiles. As a result, the program fought to achieve significant profits in production and export.

“If foreigners cannot sell their goods, they will not pay for the goods they buy from us. If we reduce their goods, they will have to cut ours,” Prof. wrote. Pannaria.

Such protectionism also led to allegations of maple.

“Tariffs have created protectionism in a number of Indian industries, without giving investments to the efficiency of cozy executives and allowing them to receive a steady market power, creating concentrated positions,” according to Vigoria, Professor at the Business School in New York.

If the US, which turns inside and pressure, are the countries belonging to the European Union, seek reliable trading partners – and India can become one of them. To capture this moment, economists believe that India should reduce its tariffs, increase export competitiveness and signal its openness to global trade.

Sectors such as clothing, textiles and toys are a golden opportunity, especially for the middle and large -scale sector. But after a decade of stagnation, the main question: can they scale – and the government will return them?

If Trump is following his tariff plans after the current pause, India can see $ 7.76 billion – either 6.4% – the US Export Fall this year, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) estimate, an analytical center founded in Delhi. (In 2024, India exported $ 89 billion to the US market.) To the US market.)

“Trump tariffs are expected to strike on India’s exports to the US,” says GTRI.

It emphasizes India’s need to expand its trading base after providing a balanced transaction with the United States. This includes rapid tracking agreements with the EU, the UK and Canada, while deepening its ties with China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN.

In home Excessive tax on goods and services (GST)The best trading processes and fair implementation of quality control. Without this, India risks missing the world moment.

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