Why Trump Putin is unlikely to lead to the rapid end of the war of Ukraine

The war in Ukraine, caused by the full -scale invasion of Russia in February 2022, does not show signs of reduction.

In the east of Ukraine, Russia presses the grinding and bloody promotion. Death air strikes are at night across the country, while Russian refineries and energy premises fall under a regular attack by Kiev drone.

It was against this background that the Kremlin confirmed the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, and soon should take place. “I’m here to get (war),” said US leader on Wednesday.

Three rounds of conversations between Russia and Ukraine, which went on his will since May and July, could not approach both sides closer to peace, and Trump may hope to take the situation in his own hands.

But the bay between Kiev and Moscow is so large that even talks indirectly mediated by Trump can make it difficult to overcome.

In the memorandum presented to Russia by Ukraine, in June, Moscow outlined its maximalist requirements for the “final settlement” of the conflict. These include the recognition of Russian sovereignty over the Ukrainian regions of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson, as well as Ukraine, agreeing to demilitarization, neutrality, no foreign military participants and new elections.

“The Russian side can create this dozens of different ways, giving the impression that Moscow is open to concessions and serious negotiations,” wrote Russian political analyst Tatiana. “But the main position remains unchanged: Russia wants Kyiv to give up.”

Following the meeting between Putin and US Messenger Steve Witco, US Secretary of State Mark Rubio said Wednesday that Washington is better at understanding the conditions under which Russia will be ready to end the war.

We do not know if these conditions have changed. However, only last week, Putin, probably referring to the memorandum, said that Russia made its goals in June and that these goals remained the same.

Therefore, despite the fact that the Kremlin agrees to Trump-Purven’s meeting, there is no reason to believe that Moscow is ready to move to its tough prerequisites.

So why would Putin agree at the negotiations at this stage?

One of the opportunities is that he hopes that participation in the dialog may affect Secondary sanctions Trump threatened to impose Moscow’s trading partner As soon as Friday. The Kremlin may also feel that Trump can persuade the merits in his terms to stop the war.

At the beginning of his second term, Trump seemed to be more agreed with Russia than Ukraine, calling Zelensky a “dictator” and believing he was to blame for the war with Russia.

Although he has since signaled his impatience to Putin – “he just listened to me,” he said in April – Trump also refused to say whether he feels that the Russian leader was lying for his willingness to move towards the ceasefire.

Be from personal intimacy or aligned worldview, Trump reluctantly condemned Putin for his actions.

When they met in Helsinki in 2018 – during the first term Trump as president – many were He remained stunned by seeing Trump with Kremlin about allegations of Russian US elections 2016 and take responsibility for the intense state of US-Russia relations.

It may be partly breaking away from Trump to shake Putin that Kiev wants to participate in any ceasefire negotiations.

Through his messenger Steve Witco Trump also offered to spend a trilateral with Putin and Zelensky. But the Russian president canceled these proposals, saying that the conditions for the meeting were still far.

Now some in Ukraine are concerned about Trump-Purven meetings, the US president is supposed to be Putin’s demands.

The deputy of Ukraine Irina Gerashchenko said it becomes apparent that the requirements for territorial concessions by Ukraine will be made and add that the absence in the negotiating table will be “very dangerous” for Kiev.

“Ukraine is not afraid of meetings and is waiting for the same bold approach from the Russian side,” Zelensky said on Thursday.

But the bay between Russia and Ukraine remains.

And when the Kremlin eventually agrees to the trilateral meeting, Moscow’s demands for ceasefire were so insoluble that it is unclear that it could reach Zelen and Putin to face.