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US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a joint press conference in the eastern room of the White House in Washington, Colombia, February 13, 2025.
Andrew Cabalera-Rinold | AFP | Gets the image
Indian stock market showed a small sign of panic every other day after the US announced 50% tariff The goods from the country and threatened secondary sanctions on their long oil trade with Russia.
Sensks, an indicative index for Blue-Chip India, ended by 0.1% above August 7.
From bureaucrats to enterprises, in India, there is a wide consensus that the last escalation with the US is just a pressure rate for quick trade negotiations. However, the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi now has something he didn’t have, even a day earlier: the support of the Indian opposition to push off.
Rahul Gandhi, leader of the largest opposition party of India, the Indian National Congress, called the punishment for the purchase of Russian oil as “economic blackmail” Trump.
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Thus, the determination of the Indian negotiations can only be strengthened, especially in negotiations on areas that directly affect the country’s farmers.
“India will never compromise on the interests of farmers, fishermen and animal husbandry.
Economic influence
Most estimates, the cost of losing trading from the United States is important for India, but without depleting.
The most pessimistic assessment is from Morgan Stanley. It states that if all the goods are 50%, the effect on the gross domestic product of India is likely to be 60 basic points, approximately $ 23 billion in current courses.
On the other hand, the cost of dairy exports to India is one of the most controversial issues – it is expected that Rs 1.8 ($ 20 billion) in India, SBI Research reports, the country’s largest bank unit. SBA said that just over half of this severity would hit farmers directly in the form of a fall in retail prices if the government does not compensate for losses.
Indian exports to the USA
| Sector | Export to USA in 2024 | Share of India’s export to the US |
|---|---|---|
| Electronics | 11.1 billion dollars | 14.30% |
| Precious stones and jewelry | 9.9 billion dollars | 12.80% |
| Pharmaceutical drugs | 8.1 billion dollars | 10.40% |
| Nuclear reactors, details, cars | 6.2 billion dollars | 8% |
| Exquisite oil products | 5.8 billion dollars | 7.50% |
Source: Ministry of Trade of India
Additional tariffs can also be catastrophic for GEM and jewelry in India, spokeswoman for the branch lobby told CNBC-TV18 on Thursday, while Indian seafood exporters selling most of their products in the US can lose almost 3 billion dollars a year at 25%. Stanley.
Individual intensive textile industry in India, meanwhile, expects a $ 5 billion business to move away from India in the next few months due to tariffs.
According to ARVind Sanger from Geosphere Capital Management, in New York, US high duties will also affect India’s ability to attract direct foreign investment (FDI).
However, India’s position is underpinned by the fact that more than 60% of its GDP comes from internal consumption.
Indian Rupee will become a direct sacrificeAccording to Mahesh, he has been overseeing more than Rupees ($ 35 billion) of financial assets based in Mumbai, the Aditya Birla Mutual Fund as Chief Investment Director. However, Patl also noted that the Rupee, which settled at lower levels, against the US dollar could offset part of the hit on Indian exporters, and the impact may be seen with a few months.
Shooting of India’s trade with the US
| Total bilateral trade in 2024 | 212.3 billion dollars |
| Goods trade | 129 billion dollars |
| Trade | 83.4 billion dollars |
| US deficit in trading goods with India | 45.8 billion dollars |
| American surplus to trade services with India | 102 million dollars |
Source: US trade representative
About 40% of the total trade in India with the US is on services, which is not even a discussion point when the United States exports more services to India than imports. Trump also did not listen to the call on the curb Visa H1-Bwhich is a route that is mainly used by Indian citizens seeking to fill in the gaps in talent – especially in the technology sector – in the USA
The middle ground of India
Against the background of Trump’s threat from secondary sanctions in India, Modi has been planning his first visit to China since 2018. And, close to the heels of the US Messenger Steve Witco, the Indian national security advisers are visiting Russia, seeking to pursue India’s interests through diplomacy.
Meanwhile, the Indian Foreign Ministry impressed what calls us hypocrisy, ignoring our own trade with Russia, which continues through the war in Ukraine Trump dropped but did not deny. It is also important to note that Indian companies have shares in many Russian oil fields.
Trump Trade Advisor Peter Navaro also claimed that India uses trade dollars with America to pay Russian oil, however, most trade in India’s oil with Russia is decided in dirhoms, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), stated that NFA-TBS-TV18.
India was much more willingly than Brazil and China to find the middle ground with the US
The government has already reduced duties in the import of American motorcycles, bourbon, Ethernet switch, synthetic fragrant essences and fish hydrolysis. This also allowed Tesla Set up the shop in Mumbai and withdraw the collection from alignment on Internet giants, widely known as Google Tax.
Over the past six months, India has also increased oil purchases in the US by 120%, spring The Indian government reported CNBC-TV18, which was one of Trump’s main requirements when Modi visited the White House in February 2025.
However, Since then, Trump has moved out of the goal of reducing the US trade deficit with India to South Asian relations with Russia.
Watch and wait?
Trump said the procurement of Russian oil in India is why it is now facing a tariff of 50%, and this full rate should be imposed 21 days after Trump’s executive orders on Wednesday.
Despite this, the tone and rhetoric of New Delhi were softer than the statements coming from Beijing or Rio -da -Janeiro, but it also adheres to its red lines. India seeks to use 21 days to find a win-win situation, said the CNBC-TV18 government official.
While the Indian government has not hinted at any time at its end, some experts believe that India has several legal options.
“It is important for us to talk to our trading partners and like-minded people who have suffered from similar actions by the United States,” said Angely Prasad, a former Indian Ambassador of the World Trade Organization.
“Only if we are going to decide on the strategy, or is it possible that this is effective because there is a force in the amount.”
What Trump should meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin In the coming daysMeanwhile, the US priority is to end the war in Russia with Ukraine.
If there is a breakthrough in the negotiations between Trump, Putin and President of Ukraine Valodimir Zelensky, India’s oil purchases in Russia can no longer be a problem.
There is an incentive for India to watch and wait instead of hurrying with concessions.
-Parricshit Lutra, Head of the Delhi Bureau at CNBC-TV18, contributed to this report.
Sriram Iyer leads the digital team CNBC-TV18 as an executive editor. It has more than 18 years of work both in Indian and global outlets, ranging from Indian Express to Reuters and Business Insider India.
