Why Trump focuses on Brazil

US President Donald Trump’s message on Wednesday landed like a pomegranate in Brazil, led to relations between the two countries to the low time.

Trump pledged to impose tariffs on Brazil at a speed of up to 50%. He accused the country of “attacks” on US technology campaigns and a “witch hunt” against the extreme right -wing former President Jiri Bolsonar, a long -standing ally who is persecuted for his allegedly role in the plot to cancel the Brazil elections in 2022.

This step stems with the fresh round of political sparring between Trump and the current President of Brazilian Luis Inazio Lula to Silva. This is even more strained by the relationship that was already tense.

Earlier, Trump threatened the members of the BRICS group – which involves Brazil – with tariffs, accusing these countries of anti -American positions.

The block includes India, Russia and China and grew to Iran. It was designed to resist US exposure in the world.

Lula responded to Trump’s tariff threat in the post of X, writing that “Brazil is a sovereign nation with independent institutions and does not take any form of care.”

Trump has unleashed a wide tariff program – or import taxes – since he returned to the post in January. He claims to increase US production and protect jobs, although he also used them to achieve political goals.

This seems to be in the case of Brazil.

The Lula government said he would respond in response – he means tariffs for American products. But it is unclear how this will happen, whether Brazil has an economic impact to face the consequences of escalation.

At the same time, many Brazilians ask why Trump sent his country and how this new saga could play.

Brazil is one of the relatively few countries that buy more in the United States than sells – a setting that is theoretically suited to Trump’s trade program.

Given this imbalance, the tariff threat was considered by many Brazilian analysts and politicians as a clear gesture of support for Jiro Bolsonar, a former president.

This was emphasized by a letter from Trump, which strongly criticized the Brazilian government and the current Balsanar trial in the Supreme Court, which focused on the intended attempted coup two years ago.

Brzilian politicians were already waiting for some help from Trump – but not on this scale.

On January 8, 2023, hundreds of Bolsonar supporters invaded the Brazilian Congress, the Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace – in a clear attempt to cancel the elections defeated by Lula several months earlier.

Balsanar denies any connection with this event, which many viewed as the Brazilian version of the US Capitol’s building by Trump’s supporters two years earlier. Trump was also investigated after the US riots – and condemned those who tried to prosecute him.

Bolsonar’s supporters have asked Trump for several months. His son Eduarda took a vacation in Congress of Brazil, where he acts as a representative and moved to the United States. Its purpose was to combine the support of his father from Trump’s inner circle and his broader movement (to make America great).

In another intervention, which was regarded as a pro-bolsonar, Trump also accused the Brazilian government of “insidious attacks on free elections, as well as fundamental rights to the Americans”, including the censorship of “social media platforms”.

As part of a constant investigation into the distribution of misinformation in the country, the Supreme Court of Brazil has in recent years ordered several accounts in social media – many of them belong to Bolsonar supporters.

Brazil’s authorities and businesses seek to calculate the economic influence of potential tariffs, but political consequences can also be huge.

The words used by Trump indicate that Bolsonar has political closeness to the US president, as few Brazilian and Latin American politicians can dream.

This will be considered as a powerful approval for Bolsonar, who wants to run for the president again – despite the ban on it by 2030.

Bolsonar’s supporters made the political capital tariffs, believing that the guilt is firmly in the current president.

“Loul put the ideology ahead of the economy, and this is the result. The responsibility is that in power. The stories do not solve the problems,” said Governor San -Paul Tarcii de Freitas, an unwavering ally.

Despite the obvious positive consequences for the Balsanar, some analysts and politicians say Trump’s gesture may abandon him.

The US is the second most important trading partner in Brazil, behind China.

And some sectors that can most affect the new round of US tariffs are the ones that are closely aligned with Bolsonar’s political base – especially agribusiness. Concerns about the potential exposure to Brazilian exports of oranges, coffee and beef to the United States are growing.

Instead of playing the hands of Bolsonar, Trump’s tariff threat can serve as a lifeline for a lulp that fights the fall of popularity and difficulty in combating Congress.

A poll, published in May, suggested that 55% of Brazilians did not approve of Trump. And a new wave of tariffs is unlikely to change these moods.

Immediately after the announcement of Trump, Lula and other members of the Brazilian left coating, they reacted, playing the nationalist tune – talking about sovereignty and trying to blame the Balsanar of the possible economic consequences of tariffs.

Even among the central politicians, the reaction to Trump’s threats was largely negative.

“No citizen, especially representatives elected by the people, can tolerate foreign aggression against Brazil, regardless of allegedly justification. The time of true patriotism,” Alessandro Vieira wrote, the Central Senator who usually has a critical position against Lula.

Some analysts claim that this can create a place for a place for Lula in Brazil’s political disputes.

“Even the critics of Lula can take Trump’s step as an attack on the national sovereignty and independence of the judicial system,” said Oliver Stunkel, Professor of the Getúlio Vargas (FGV) and a researcher in the trust of international thought in Washington.

The presidential election in Brazil in October 2026 is still disconnected, but some analysts are already comparing with Canada, where this year’s right candidate has lost a more opponent who openly agitated against Trump.

Bolsonar cannot run for president from his conviction of the Supreme Court, and the allies are already challenged by the candidate to represent the Brazilian right in the elections.

In social media – where most of the political discussion takes place – the memes of Bolsonar’s allies share thousands, often with the words of criticism. One of them shows the likely Tarcísio candidate who wears Trump’s hat.

With the threat of Trump’s tariffs, a potential storm not only in the Brazilian economy but also its political future.