Why Somalis are excited about Donald Trump

Many Somaliland residents are convinced that the United States, under the incoming presidency of Donald Trump, is ready to become the first country in the world to recognize the self-proclaimed republic.

The territory declared independence 33 years ago after civil war broke out in Somalia – and has largely functioned as a de facto nation-state ever since.

“Donald is our savior. He is a wise and practical man. God bless America,” says university student Aisha Ismail, her voice shaking at the prospect.

She is speaking to me from Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland – a city 850 km (530 miles) north of Mogadishu, the seat of Somalia’s government.

For those in Mogadishu, Somaliland is an indivisible part of Somalia.

“I doubt Donald Trump knows what Somaliland is, it doesn’t matter where it is,” says Abdi Mohamud, a data analyst in Mogadishu, whose voice is starting to shake.

“I spit fire.”

He is so angry because Ms. Ismail’s high expectations are not necessarily a pipe dream, at least in the long run.

Powerful and influential Republicans are pushing for the same, including Congressman Scott Perry, who last month introduced a bill offering formal US recognition of Somaliland.

This was after publication in April 2023 Project 2025a road map for Trump’s second presidency, compiled by the prominent right-wing Heritage Foundation and more than 100 other conservative organizations

The document mentions only two African territories in sub-Saharan Africa – Somaliland and Djibouti – and proposes “recognition of Somaliland’s statehood as a safeguard against a deterioration of the US position in Djibouti”.

However, the fact that sub-Saharan Africa occupies less than two pages in the 900-plus page plan suggests that the continent is very low on the priority list.

Also, there is no guarantee that the next administration will stick with the plan, some of which Trump has already disavowed.

But one thing is clear. The US has already begun to change its position on Somaliland, moving away from the Mogadishu-centric approach known as the “one track” policy in Somalia.

Somalia has cost the US dearly in financial, resource and human terms since the early 1990s, when the bodies of 18 US servicemen were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu after US helicopters were shot down by Somali clan fighters.

The battle, known as “The Fall of Black Hawk,” was America’s worst in terms of casualties since the Vietnam War.

“Any move to recognize Somalia’s independence will not only contradict Somalia’s sovereignty, but also destabilize the region, setting a dangerous precedent,” said Somalia’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Ali Omar Balkad.

The African Union and other world powers believe that territorial integrity is of paramount importance. Recognition of Somaliland could set off a chain reaction with separatist demands around the world for recognition of the territories they claim.

Balkad also highlighted concerns about a possible repeat of the Trump administration’s first decision to withdraw most US troops from Somalia, which have been fighting al-Shabaab, regularly described as al-Qaeda’s most successful affiliate.

During Joe Biden’s presidency, about 500 US troops were deployed to Somalia, conducting special operations and training the elite Somali “Danab” force, which has proven more effective than the regular Somali army in rooting out al-Shabaab.

The Americans have an air base in Baledogle, northwest of Mogadishu, and carry out regular airstrikes against Islamist rebels.

“Withdrawal will create a significant security vacuum, emboldening terrorist groups and threatening stability not only in Somalia but in the wider Horn of Africa region,” Balkad warned.

The minister’s remarks are similar, but more measured, than Somalia’s response to the Somaliland-Ethiopia deal in which recognition would be granted in exchange for access to the sea.

Late at night I got calls from Somalis who said they couldn’t sleep through the controversial proposal.

Somalia’s then Minister of the Environment, Aden Ibrahim Aw Hirsi, told me at the time: “In your reporting, you always talk about ‘political bombs’.

“People here are talking about a political earthquake. This is much more serious. It’s a tsunami.”

Turkey has since brokered an end to hostilities but the fact that Somalia recently signed a $600,000 (£492,000)-a-year deal with Washington’s top lobbying firm, BGR Group, suggests that Somalia is concerned about relations with the incoming Trump administration.

USA last month abstained from voting on the UN Security Council resolution to fund the latest incarnation of the African Union intervention force in Somalia.

A key architect of Republican Africa thinking, especially when it comes to Somali issues, is Joshua Meservey, who recently moved from the Heritage Foundation to the rights-oriented Hudson Institute.

“The Somaliland case from the US perspective is very compelling,” he argues. “I think the question of recognition will certainly be debated, although the guiding North Star is what, from a practical standpoint, is best in the national interest of the United States.”

Senior African officials under Trump, including former Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Tibor Nagy and Africa envoy Peter Pham, are strong supporters of Somaliland independence.

Like many American Republicans, Somaliland Foreign Minister Abdirahman Dahir Adan sees the relationship in transactional terms.

“If the deal is good for us, we will take it. If the US wants a military base here, we’ll give it to them.”

Proponents of recognition argue that Somaliland is in the zone of convergence of several US interests – economic, military and strategic.

Mr Meservi adds that the territory should be “rewarded” for adhering to democratic principles, not relying on foreign aid and having a small government.

Its long coastline runs along one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world.

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels may have replaced Somali pirates as the area’s main traffic disruptor, but the attacks remain a major threat to global trade and are pushing the region closer to war in the Middle East.

The scramble for foreign bases along the coast of the Horn of Africa is a concern for the US, which established its largest military facility on the continent in Djibouti in 2002.

Russia has its eyes on Port Sudan; The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has used Eritrea’s Asseb to fight the Houthis, while Djibouti is blocked from foreign forces, including the Chinese, who not only have a well-located military facility but also control a huge port.

Turkey’s largest foreign base stretches along Somalia’s coastline south of Mogadishu.

Dealing with a rising China is Trump’s top priority.

The US has accused the Chinese of interfering with its activities in Djibouti by shining lasers into the eyes of its air force pilots and wants to relocate.

He also wants to disrupt China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which is taking over most of Africa.

Whether you see it as part of Somaliland or Somalia, the Red Sea port of Berbera has a lot to offer as an alternative.

China is not there; indeed, he is outraged that Taiwan established diplomatic relations with the breakaway republic in 2020.

The UAE, a key US ally, operates the newly expanded port and hopes it will rival Djibouti’s.

During the Biden administration, top US officials, including the head of US Africa Command (Africom), visited Berbera, which has a 4km airstrip ironically built by the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

It was later identified by the US as a space shuttle crash landing site – interesting given Trump ally Elon Musk’s obsession with space.

In 2022, the US National Defense Authorization Act was amended to include Somaliland, increasing security cooperation and potentially paving the way for stronger diplomatic and economic ties.

Pro-recognition Republicans have presented Somaliland as a good business case, hoping to appeal to Trump’s deal-making approach. Project 2025 used the term “hedging”.

A Somaliland diplomat based in the US said: “It depends on how they sell it to him. They have to make it attractive; they have to entice him.”

Whether he means it or not, raising the explosive issue of recognition is likely to suit Trump the Destroyer.

It would definitely get him noticed and he could brag about being the first.

It would also enrage Somalia, a country he included on his report’s 2018 list of “shithole” countries and a place to which he wants to deport undocumented Somalis, failed asylum seekers and criminals.

Somaliland is already saying that the territory will be used as a “dumping ground” for such people in exchange for US recognition.

American academic Ken Menkhouse, who has followed Somalia’s problems for decades, brings much-needed balance to the debate.

“It is very likely that we will see a significant change in US policy towards Somaliland and Somalia,” he says.

“Mr. Trump is deeply suspicious of foreign aid, skeptical of nation-building and a neo-isolationist.”

The Horn of Africa must be ready for change.

Mary Harper has written two books about Somalia, including Everything You Told Me Is True, a look at life under al-Shabab rule.