Why is India now turning to the Taliban

India’s latest diplomatic engagement with the Taliban government of Afghanistan marks a marked change in the way it sees the geopolitical reality in the region.

This comes more than three years after India dealt a major strategic and diplomatic blow Kabul fell into the hands of the Taliban.

Two decades of investment in Afghanistan’s democracy – through military training, scholarships and landmark projects such as the construction of a new parliament – were quickly undone. The collapse also paved the way for greater influence from regional rivals, particularly Pakistan and China, undermining India’s strategic position and raising new security concerns.

However, last week showed a shift. India’s top diplomat Vikram Misri met Taliban acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaki in Dubai – the highest level of engagement since the fall of Kabul. The Taliban have expressed interest in strengthening political and economic ties with India, calling it a “significant regional and economic power”.

The talks reportedly focused on expanding trade and using Iran’s Chabahar port, which India is developing to bypass the Pakistani ports of Karachi and Gwadar.

How important is this meeting? Delhi has now given the Taliban leadership the de facto legitimacy it sought from the international community after its return to power, Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, a US think tank, told me.

“The fact that this kind of treatment is coming from India, a country that has never had friendly relations with the Taliban before, makes it even more significant, as well as a diplomatic triumph for the Taliban,” he says.

Since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan, countries have taken different approaches to the regime, balancing diplomatic engagement with human rights and security concerns. China, for example, has come a long way: it has actively engaged with the Taliban, focusing on security and economic interests, and even an ambassador in the country.

No country has officially recognized the Taliban government, but up to 40 countries maintain diplomatic or informal relations with it in one form or another.

That is why experts like Jayant Prasad, former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, are more cautious about India’s activities.

According to him, India has been in contact with the Taliban through a foreign service diplomat for the past three years. India closed its consulates in Afghanistan during the civil war in the 1990s and reopened them in 2002 after the war ended. “We didn’t want that break to happen (again), so we wanted to interact. It’s just a step forward in the relationship,” he says.

India has “historical and civilizational connections“With Afghanistan, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar told Parliament in 2023. India has invested more than $3 billion (£2.46 billion) in more than 500 projects across Afghanistan, including roads, power lines, dams, hospitals and clinics.She trained Afghan officers, awarded thousands of scholarships to students and built a new parliament building.

This reflects an ongoing geopolitical reality. “Irrespective of the nature of the regime in Kabul – monarchical, communist or Islamist – there was a natural warmth between Delhi and Kabul,” writes The Indian Express newspaper. noted.

Mr. Kugelman echoes those sentiments. “India has an important legacy as a development and humanitarian donor in Afghanistan, which has translated into public goodwill with the Afghan public, which Delhi is keen not to lose,” he says.

Interestingly, relations with Delhi seem to be softening amid rising tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan claims that the militant Taliban in Pakistan (TTP) operates from sanctuaries in Afghanistan.

Last July, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif told the BBC that Pakistan would continue attacks on Afghanistan as part of the counter-terrorism operation. A few days before talks between India and the Taliban, Pakistani airstrikes have killed dozens of people in eastern Afghanistan, according to the Afghan government. The Taliban government condemned the strikes as a violation of its sovereignty.

It marks a sharp decline in relations since the fall of Kabul in 2021, when a senior Pakistani intelligence official was one of the first foreign visitors to meet the Taliban regime. At the time, many saw the fall of Kabul as a strategic setback for India.

“While Pakistan is not the only factor behind the intense coverage of India by the Taliban, it is true that Delhi stands to gain greatly in its evergreen rivalry with Pakistan by tapping into a key long-standing Pakistani asset that has now turned against its former patron,” says Mr. Kugelman.

There are other reasons that drive coverage. India seeks to strengthen connectivity and gain access to Central Asia, where it cannot reach directly by land due to Pakistan’s denial of transit rights. Experts say Afghanistan is the key to that goal. One strategy is to work with Iran to develop the Chabahar port to improve access to Central Asia via Afghanistan.

“It is easier for Delhi to focus on the Afghan component of this plan by engaging more closely with the Taliban leadership, which fully supports India’s plans as they will help strengthen Afghanistan’s trade and communications links,” says Mr. Kugelman.

Clearly, India’s recent actions advance its core interests in Taliban-led Afghanistan: countering India’s terrorist threats, deepening ties with Iran and Central Asia, and maintaining public goodwill through aid and opposition to a struggling Pakistan.

What can be said about the cons?

“The main risk of strengthening ties with the Taliban is the Taliban themselves. We’re talking about a violent and brutal actor with close ties to international — including Pakistani — terrorist groups that have done little to reform themselves compared to the 1990s. “, says Mr. Kugelman.

“India can hope that if it keeps the Taliban at bay, so to speak, the Taliban will have less chance of undermining India or its interests. And that may be true. But at the end of the day, can you really trust an actor as the Taliban? This will be a troubling question that will hang over India as it continues to cautiously maintain this difficult relationship.”

Mr. Prasad sees no downside to India’s current engagement with Afghanistan, despite concerns about the Taliban’s treatment of women. “The Taliban is in complete control of the situation. Allowing the Taliban to stew in their own juice will not help the Afghan people. Some interaction with the international community can force the government to improve its behavior.’

“Remember, the Taliban craves recognition,” says Mr. Prasad. “They know that this will happen only after internal reforms.” How to return women to public life and restore their rights to education, work and political participation.