What do the US and Iran further may be even more important

For decades, the United States and Iran have thoroughly avoided crossing the dangerous red line into a direct military confrontation.

One US president, after another, was holding back against the deployment of his military force against the Islamic Republic, fearing the US into the potentially most dangerous war in the Middle East.

Now the commander-in-chief, who promised to become the president of the world, has passed this rubicon with direct military strikes on the nuclear sections of the Tehran-so followed step in the second term of the president, who was proud of violating all the old rules.

This is an unprecedented moment that is anxious in capitals around the world.

The next step of Iran may be even more important. His 86-year-old Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Homena, who reportedly shelter in the bunker, spent almost four decades cautiously playing a long game against his most powerful enemy to protect his most important asset-Islamic Republic.

If he does too little he will lose his face; If he does too much, he could lose everything.

“The following steps of Khamenei will be the results not only for his own survival, but also for how he will do in history,” says San Vakil, the Director of the Middle East and North Africa in thenk Tank, Chatham House.

“His poisoned glass is potentially more powerful than the one that drank Khomeini in 1988,” she continues, citing the reluctant decision of the first revolutionary leader of Iran to take a bitter ceasefire in the devastating war of Iran-Irak.

In the last ten days, intensive Israeli strikes have caused greater damage to the Iranian and military equipment chain than its eight-year war with Iraq, which still throws a long shadow in Iranian society.

Israeli attacks have eliminated many in the top series of Iran’s security forces, along with leading nuclear scientists. The entry into America into this conflict has now increased the pressure.

The Islamic Revolutionary Corps of the Guard (IRGC), founded as a result of the Iranian Revolution of 1979, causes a warning against the US, which will leave it “strong regret”.

But in the acute war, there are urgent calculations to avoid the miscalculation.

“It’s not a war that Iran wants,” says Hamidrez Aziz from the Middle East Council. “But we already see the arguments of the regime supporters, which, regardless of the degree of actual damage that the United States can do, the image of Iran as a strong country (and) as a regional power was so sharply shaken (that) that requires an answer.”

However, each answer is risky. A direct attack on one of the 20 USA Bashes in the Middle East or any of the more than 40,000 US troops is likely to cause a major revenge in the United States.

The closure of the mountainus shed, the strategic waterway for the fifth of the world’s oil movement, can also retreat by upsetting Arab allies in the region, as well as China, the main customer of Iran’s own oil. Western Military Powers can also be attracted to protect this main “stifling point” and provide significant economic upheavals.

And the fact that Iran was regarded as its “forward protection”, its network of proxies and partners across the region was weakened or destroyed by Israeli attacks and murders over the last 20 months of the war.

It is unclear whether there is an acceptable threshold for Iran to return the fire without provoking the anger of America, which would allow both sides to get distracted from the border.

Such winding relationships were tested at least once before. Five years ago, when President Trump ordered the killing of IRGC commander Casem Saleimani when he hit Baghdad, many were afraid that it caused a vicious spiral. But Iran called counterattack through Iraqi officials, focusing on sections of US bases that avoided the murder of US staff or causing considerable damage.

But this moment is much greater.

President Trump, who repeatedly expressed the preference for “making a deal with Iran” rather than “bombarded from it” seems to be in an Israeli corner. He described Iran as a “bully in the Middle East”, leaning against the creation of a nuclear bomb – a conclusion that is not shared by previous US intelligence estimates.

Reinforcement groups now analyze the results of what the Pentagon says that “the biggest operational blow in the history of B-2 in the US History”. It caused “extremely serious damage and destruction” by the main nuclear plot of Iran in Natantha, Isfohan and Fordau.

But Bunker bombs could penetrate the Fordow object, buried deep down into the mountain.

President Trump now calls on Iran to “come to peace.”

But Iran is now considering the US diplomatic path as a surrender. In Geneva on Friday, when Foreign Minister Abbas Arakhchi met his European counterparts, a tough message was conveyed that Washington expected Tehran to reduce his nuclear enrichment to zero.

This requirement of Iran rejects as a violation of its sovereign right to enrich uranium as part of a civilian nuclear program.

He is now considering President Trump’s diplomatic efforts, including five rounds, mostly indirect negotiations held by his special messenger Steve Witco, is a complex deception.

Two days before the sixth round of talks in Muscovite, Israel unleashed his military campaign. The United States went into war two days after President Trump said he wanted to allow a two -week window to give diplomacy.

Now it is said that he will not return to the dining talks until Israeli and American bombs are still falling.

“It was not Iran, but the US, who betrayed diplomacy,” Arakhchi said at a press conference in Istanbul. During this, he met with the Foreign Ministers of the 57 member of the Islamic Conference, which condemned “Israel’s aggression” and expressed his “great concern to this dangerous escalation.”

Iran also tried to push the pressure on the UN Charter, as well as the prevention of the international nuclear energy agency that nuclear facilities should never attack, “regardless of context and circumstances.”

European leaders also call for urgent de -escalation and the way to stop Iran’s nuclear program through mediation, not rockets.

But they also say that Iran cannot be allowed to buy a nuclear bomb. They believe that 60 percent enrichment of Uranus Tehran within the 90 -percent weapon class as a sinister indication of his intention.

“Iran is likely to underestimate the damage to its site and insists that its nuclear program has experienced these unprecedented attacks,” says Eli Granma, Deputy Head of the Middle East and North Africa program in the European Foreign Relations.

“The United States can overcome the damage, so Trump can qualify for a military victory without dragging on further blows.”

President Trump will be extended one way to the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, whose own formidable forces will continue to attack Iran to cause even more damage, causing even more Iranian salons.

But the American leader is also being pressured at home by lawmakers who said he acted without permission in Congress, and the supporters who believe he violated his promise to avoid America from long wars.

And this point is supposed to concentrate the minds that make Iran’s decisions how to restore restraint when they seek to avoid targeting.

“It’s a great irony,” Ms Helanma warns. “Although Trump sought to exclude the nuclear threat from Iran, he made it much more likely that Iran would become a nuclear state.”

Leading image: The demonstrator has a portrait of Iran’s supreme leader. Credit Photos: Reuters

BBC Indepth is home to the site and application for better analysis, with fresh prospects that dispute assumptions and a deep report on the biggest issues of the day. And we demonstrate the contents that cause reasoning, from different BBC sounds, and iPlayer too. You can send us your reviews in the Indepth section by clicking the button below.