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US President Donald Trump appears on the Victory Race summit in Air in the Actual Hall of Andrew W. Mellon in Washington, Columbia District, July 23, 2025.
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Brussels is preparing for an unproductive scenario as uncertainty is maintained when and when the trade agreement between the European Union and the US is materialized.
As reported “Bazuka trade”.
Measures can start, as only a few days will remain a few days before August 1, after which EU imports in the US will be set up with 30% tariffs, and the EU is expected to respond.
Talk about a potential deal However, this week also warmed up, and sources report CNBC that the current base case scenario includes 15% EU import tariff in the US, which are still developed any possible exceptions, they note.
But the main thing is that much depends on US President Donald Trump who is known Changes at the last minute heart and rapid decision -making. Therefore, there is no guarantee in how a potential transaction may look.
Retaliation of tariffs
This week, the European Commission has combined two packages of the proposed duties in one list, which has $ 93 billion (109 billion dollars) of a wide range of goods: from food and beverage to clothing and machines.
The source reported CNBC earlier this week that tariffs can reach 30%, reflecting those from the US
State -member EU justify On Thursday, they voted for the approval of the combined list. The measures should only take effect a few days after the August 1 term.
Karsten Brzeska, Head of World Macro at Ing, said on Friday CNBC that he expects revenge on EU level tariffs in the absence of a transaction.
“In the unproductive scenario without another tariff delay, I see that the EU is approaching Tat-Tat, that is, imposing 30% of the tariffs on the selected US goods, not all goods, as well-known motorcycles, cars, clothing and alcohol,” he said in an email.
“Given that European countries are not fully aligned in how to respond, I do not see how the EU goes full, but trying to find a balance between the show that it reacts, but without going beyond the US,” Brzesk added.
“Trading Bazuka”
Another widely discussed variant is the so-called instrument against the EU EU, which was named “trade”.
The measure is intended to contain with the European Commission saying This “would be the most successful if you don’t need to use it.” But when the third country is forced, “the instrument allows the union to formally identify economic coercion and respond.”
The block views economic coercion as interference with non -EU countries in the region’s policy by threat or introducing measures that affect trade and investment.
While the European Commission notes that dialogue and interaction will be part of their compulsion response, such as ACI, also allows you to import and export curbs and restrictions on EU market access.
The EU may be able to impose restrictions on export, regardless of whether it deployed its tool against Corcion, said the Ing BRZ.
Alberta Ritzi, an employee of the European Foreign Relations Council, said on Friday, CNBC that, despite the fact that Asi is considered a “nuclear version”, “reality is possible for flexibility in its application, while revenge measures remain proportionate in harm.”
Roses suggested that despite the mood in the EU switching to become more confrontational and supporting “fast and significant” revenge in the non-donor, it is uncertain when ACI can be activated.
“EU retaliation is considered as a tool for negotiations, so ACI is likely to be activated only in the second stage, if the US does not have a response after the tariff packages will come into force – the EU would like to keep it as leverage, not to use it right away,” he said.
– Sylvia Omar CNBC contributed to this story.
