US reinforce the application for the end of Ukraine’s war

The pace of diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine is acceleration.

Negotiations are held in London between officials from the UK, Germany, France, Ukraine and the United States. Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witcoof goes to Moscow for a fourth meeting with President Putin.

And yet there is little clarity in where these efforts go, or they will be successful.

Not long ago, the American plan to stop fighting in Ukraine was clear.

It would be a direct, unconditional 30-day ceasefire, after which long-term negotiations on the creation of a permanent settlement of the war continue.

Ukraine agreed to this and – under pressure from the US – made a huge concession; This no longer requires the promise of long -term safety guarantees before stopping hostilities.

But Russia refused to play the ball, insisting until a whole range of conditions is fulfilled.

In particular, Vladimir Putin said that the “root cause” of the war had to be resolved, namely his fears of the NATO’s extended alliance and the very existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state, somehow posing a threat to Russia’s security.

The US has accepted the prerequisite of this Russian argument and is now deeply in the weed of a potential ceasefire.

In recent days, there have been various leaks about the latest US ideas, the status and truth of which are challenged among diplomats.

But it seems that in the following lines there is a basis: Russia will stop its invasion of current lines, and abandon its ambitions to control the remaining parts of four regions of Eastern Ukraine, which it still occupied, namely Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaparitzia and Kherson.

In return, the United States would accept four occupied territories actually as Russian.

He also recognizes Crimea – which in 2014 was illegally annexed by Russia – as the Russian territory de -ur. The US also guarantees that Ukraine has turned off to join NATO.

As part of this plan, the United States can also take control of the controversial nuclear power plant Zaporizhia – now in Russian hands – and feed electricity in both parts of the Ukrainian territory.

This proposal will then be backed up by the US threat – both Trump and Secretary of State Mark Rubio rehearsed – that she will refuse the negotiations unless there is an immediate agreement.

At first glance, this proposal seems to be unlikely to succeed.

President Zelensky has already made it clear that Ukraine never admits that Crimea is Russian sovereignty.

Even if he wanted to do it, he couldn’t, because at first he would need a referendum in the Ukrainian people.

European states have made it clear that they would not bring Russian sovereignty over Crimea, what would violate post -war international legal norms that should not change military force.

Legal experts say there are even technical issues that recognize Crimea from certain laws adopted by the US Congress.

But despite this, Western diplomats do not abandon the plan. “There is a place for planting,” one told me. “This is just a question of whether there is enough trust between the parties to move forward.”

They say that because the proposed transaction that is still traced contains huge gaps.

There is no link to the ban on Western countries that continue to overcome Ukraine, what was a red line for Russia in the past.

There is also no reference to Russia’s demands for Ukraine to be “demilitarized”, in other words, that its army is massively reduced in size, again another long -term Moscow demand.

According to the transaction, Ukraine may not allow NATO to join, but it may join the European Union.

There are no obvious objections against the European “soothing force”, which unfolds with Western Ukraine after the ceasefire to restrain the future Russian aggression.

But it is still unclear whether the US is ready to provide the “back platform” of this power. There is also an uncertainty in what economic sanctions against Russia will be lifted when and under what circumstances.

In other words, the huge number of details are unclear and still need to be discussed.

And all sides seem far from each other.

Ukraine still wants the immediate conditional ceasefire and then talks. The United States wants a quick victory. And Russia wants to delve into the details of a peaceful deal, similar, as usual, requires months, if not years to decide.

There is an old Russian, saying that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.” Now we seem to be far from it.