US join

Oil markets come to a new uncertainty phase after the US has entered the war between Iran and Israel, and experts warn about triple prices.

Investors closely monitor Iran’s reaction after the US strikes at its nuclear facilities, with Iran’s Foreign Minister warned that his country was given “all options” to protect his sovereignty.

Oil futures increased by 2% for early hours in Asia. US WTI is rough grew more than 2% to $ 75.22 a barrel and global landmark Brent It amounted to almost 2% at $ 78.53 a barrel.

“There is a real risk when the market experiences unprecedented supply violations over the coming weeks, much more severe than in 2022 on oil in 2022, opposite the war of Ukraine,” said Senior Energy analyst MST Marquee Saul Kavonich.

While the market reaction after the US strike was less aggressive, relatively a little more than a week ago when Israel has launched air strikes against IranGalina observers believe that the latest developments lead to a new era volatility for oil markets, especially since they expect potential Iranian countermers.

The threats to block the Strait of Mountainuz, after the Iranian parliament approved, closing it in accordance with the state media, added to the market chills.

The Strait connecting the Gulf with the Arabian Sea is a critical artery for global oil trade with about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products that pass through it a day. This is almost a fifth of global oil supplies.

When Iran will close the Strait of the Highus, the western forces are likely to “go into the fight” and try to open it again, Kavonich said CNBC, adding that oil prices could approach $ 100 a barrel and repeat highs observed in 2022 when the closure goes beyond more than a few weeks.

“Even the degree of pursuit of passing through the Strait, which has no complete closure, can still see a serious increase in oil prices,” said the senior energy analyst.

Kavonik’s view is repeated by other industry experts.

The United States and the Union military would eventually open again, but if Iran worked all its military means, the conflict could “last longer than the last two wars in the Gulf,” said Bob McNali, president of the Rapidan Energy Group.

And when Iran decides to attack the energy production or flow, it has the ability to violate oil and SPG delivery, which leads to high oil and SPG prices.

“The prolonged closure or destruction of the key energy infrastructure of the Persian Gulf can push prices for rough to $ 100,” he said.

A Index of instability of CBOE’s oil“

Although there is a certain level of uncertainty against how development in the Middle East can play for oil supplies, Lipow Associates’ Endy Lipow noted that current developments are of different weight.

“This time it is felt in mind, given the flurry of missiles that have been released for more than a week, and now the US participation is directly involved,” he said, adding that oil could suffer $ 100 a barrel if the chorus is shed.

While attempting to block the waterway hormus between Iran and Amanan may have deep consequences for the broad economy, the threats of the strait lock were mostly rhetorical, with experts with experts saying it is physically impossible to do it.

“So the picture is a little mixed, and I think traders are mistaken on the side of caution, not panic if there is no more real evidence,” said Vandana Hari, founder and CEO Vanda Insights.

In 2018, Iran threatened to close Hormus Strait against the backdrop of heavy tension after the US came out of the nuclear transaction and resumed sanctions. A similar threat was issued in 2011 and 2012, when senior Iranian officials are their-president Vice Mohammad-Raham- warned of possible closure When Western countries have imposed more sanctions on oil exports in Iran from its nuclear activity.

In addition, it should be noted that the Iranian energy infrastructure has not yet been the purpose of even in recent ingots, said Rebecca Babin, the senior trader of CIBC Private Wealth.

“It turns out that both sides have an incentive to avoid oil from the fire line, at least,” she said.