US growth forecast has declined further OECD, as Trump tariffs are sour prospects

Economic growth forecasts for the United States and globally were reduced by the organization on economic cooperation and development when President Donald Trump’s tariff shock weighs on expectations.

This year’s growth prospect was revised by only 1.6% and 1.5% in 2026. In March, the OECD was still expected to expand 2.2% in 2025.

Trump’s tariff policy, increased uncertainty of economic policy, slowing pure immigration and a smaller federal labor were caused as a reasons for the latest decline.

Meanwhile, the global growth will also be lower than predicted, and the OECD states that “slowing is concentrated in the US, Canada and Mexico”, and in other economies, it is supposed to see less review of the decline.

“Global GDP growth is supposed to slow down from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year, and in 2026 … According to the technical assumption that the tariff rates in mid-May are maintained, despite constant legal problems,” the USSR said.

Previously, he predicted the global growth of 3.1% this year and 3% in 2026.

“The global forecast is becoming more complicated,” the report said. “A significant increase in trading barriers, tougher financial conditions, weaker business and consumer confidence and increased uncertainty policy will lead to negative impact on growth prospects when they are stored.”

Frequent changes regarding tariffs have continued in recent weeks, which has led to uncertainty in world markets and economies. Some of the latest events include mutual, specific Trump country strike In the US Court of International Trade, so far recover with an appeal court as well as Trump who says it will double Steel duties up to 50%.

The OECD has adjusted its inflation forecast, stating that “higher trade costs, especially in countries that raise tariffs, also push inflation, although their influence will be partially offset by weaker commodity prices.”

The influence of inflation tariffs was passionately discussed when many Central Bank politicians and world analysts believe that it remains unclear how the levies will affect prices, and it depends a lot on factors such as potential counteraction.

The OECD inflation forecast shows a marked difference between the US and some other large economies in the world. For example, while the G20 countries are expected to record 3.6% inflation in 2025 – compared to 3.8% in March – projection for the United States has increased to 3.2%, which is 2.8% compared to the previous ones.

Inflation in the US can even close by 4% by the end of 2025, the OECD said.