US and Iran still far from each other before nuclear talks

Donald Trump is a hurry man.

In a few short months he held the post, the US president sought and did not bring peace to Gaza and Ukraine. He bombed Yemen. He launched a global trade war. Now he draws his attention so that he is in Iran.

It has always been on the presidential job list. For Trump, Iran is an unfinished business from its first term.

The question remains as then: what can I be stopped by looking for nuclear weapons?

Iran denies that he has such ambitions. But other countries believe that the Islamic Republic wants at least the ability to create a nuclear combat part, a desire for some fears to ignite weapons race or even war in the Middle East.

In 2015, Iran agreed with the transaction with the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and China. It was called a joint comprehensive action plan (JCpoa).

According to its provisions, Iran limits its nuclear ambitions – and in international inspectors – in return for lifting economic sanctions.

But Trump pulled the US from the transaction in 2018, saying he had awarded terrorism by financing Iran’s proxy, such as Hamas and Hezbollah. The US has returned sanctions.

Subsequently, Iran ignored some transaction restrictions and enriched more and more uranium fuel.

Analysts fear that Iran may have enough uranium to make a nuclear warhead.

Atomic Energy International Agency (IAEA) estimates, Iran’s 60% reserve can make about six bombs if it was enriched to the next and final level.

Within a few days after his inauguration, Trump resumed his former policy of the so -called “maximum pressure” on Iran.

On February 4, with his Fat Feel-Tip Pen trademark, he signed a memorandum with the order of the US Treasury to impose further sanctions on Iran and punish the countries that violate existing sanctions, especially those who buy Iran’s oil.

Now the White House hopes to comply with this economic pressure with diplomacy.

Last month, Trump sent a letter to Iran’s High leader Ali Khamenei.

The president suggested starting the negotiations and asked for a transaction for months.

Now he agreed Direct discussions between us and Iranian officials in Oman on weekends.

The US threat to Iran is obvious: agree with the transaction or threaten military action.

“If the negotiations are not successful with Iran, I think Iran will be a great danger,” Trump said on Monday.

So how can Iran answer?

Some politicians in Tehran seem to seek to agree with a transaction that can lift sanctions.

Iran’s economy is in a difficult position, with increasing inflation and immersed currency.

But any such transaction can compromise that some hard lines can be difficult.

In recent months, Iran has survived huge lapels, seeing that his proxy-opponents had greatly weakened the war with Israel and his regional ally, Syrian President Bashar Assad. Some in Tehran claim that it may now be the time to create nuclear deterrence.

Both the US and Iran seem far from each other. Their negotiation positions are not obvious.

But the United States made it clear that I wanted a complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, including the full end of any further enrichment of uranium, as well as no further support for “Hezbolla” in Lebanon and Hussit in Yemen.

It can be too much for Iran to take.

A complete ban on any nuclear enrichment – even for civil purposes – has long been considered as an absolute red line for Tehran.

There is also the problem of Iranian technological examination: its scientists just know more about how to make nuclear weapons than 10 years ago.

As for Israel, it made it clear that only the full end of any Iranian nuclear capacity is to take. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he will agree to “how it was done in Libya.”

This is a link to the decision of the late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi to dismantle his entire nuclear program in 2003 in return for lifting sanctions.

But Iran is unlikely to follow this precedent.

What if the negotiations fail?

Israel has long been considering military options to try to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities. But many are buried deep in underground bins.

Military analysts say Israel will not only need us to help bomb Iran, but also need special forces on the ground to guarantee the destruction of its nuclear facilities.

This means that the hostilities would be risky, and its success is by no means guaranteed.

Trump also came to the post, promising not to start the so -called “forever”, and a regional conflict involving Iran can become one of them.

This did not prevent the US president from reported, giving Israel more air and placing more bombers in the region.

Therefore, Trump seems to be looking for a diplomatic decision – one Israel may have to be made as a factory, regardless of its provisions.

But if there is no arrangement, it reserves the right to use force, the consequences of which can be devastating.

At the same time, the president allows two months for both parties to agree with the agreement.

He may have forgotten that it took two years to agree with JCPOA. Transverse diplomacy is not always a successful diplomacy.