Turkish protests are much more than the fate of the mayor Istanbul

Under the caustic smell of tear gas in the night air in Istanbul there is a hint of something else – the breath of the long -standing Turkish leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

One of his competitors was put behind bars – so far, so familiar.

But in the prison, Imomoglu’s screen, a popular mayor of Istanbul, believes that President Erdogan Rumble – and he may have gone too far. The opposition Republican People’s Party of the mayor (CHP), which causes huge crowds on the street, probably hopes.

Ekrem Imamoglu – It has always been reasonable, even when it is preparing for detention – is the main competitor of the increasingly authoritarian leader of Turkey. He could well replace him in the presidential election, which should take place by 2028 – believing he was free to dispute them.

But this is much more than a number of the fate of the mayor of Istanbul – a charismatic, though it can be.

Freedom and democracy are steadily blurred in Erdogan’s era. Many see this as a chance to call and stop the descent into a full autocracy – if it’s not too late.

And they come out every night, sharing, as well as their tear gas and rubber bullets, ban on demonstrations, roads and bridge, as well as the risk of detention.

More than 1000 people have been detained so far – in just 5 days – and counting. This indicates how easy it is to arrest here.

Turkey claims to be a functional democracy – and in denomination. There is an election. Voter turnout is usually high – Turks keep their right to go to the polls and throw ballots. Voting is largely fair that day.

The problem is what comes from polling stations.

Opposition politicians can be imprisoned. Critics were intimidated. The participants of the rally arrested. The media is heavily controlled by the government. Twitter, making fun of the president, can land in the camera. By the time the survey day comes, there is a tsunami of lighting, and the opposition is fighting to see.

Ekrem Imamoglu is a type of politician that can cut it all out and reach voters. He was a smart media and was chosen by the mayor of Istanbul three times. He is now accused of stealing, bribery and criminal organization.

When convicted, he may be banned from standing in the presidential race. He has already appealed the previous conviction and sentence in two years of imprisonment for insults to officials.

Turkey insists that his courts are independent and simply adhered to the law. Activists are human rights activists here and independent analysts, brought to this idea.

The Human Rights Watch group noted that the mayor’s detention, as well as about 100 other municipal officials and politicians, is a “politically motivated step towards suppressing legitimate political activity.” In the past, he criticized the “politicized court decisions” in Turkey.

In a report on X, where he had 9.6 million followers, Imomoglu stated that the case against him was a “black spot on our democracy”, adding “I stand high. I will never bow”.

This is what Erdogan can be afraid, 71 -year -old – an enemy who is younger, at the age of 53, also resortes to conservative Turkish voters and is ready for a long struggle.

So, what’s going on now?

Protests can gain strength and continue to spread. This will present Erdogan a serious problem. How much time to his heavily armed forces is even stronger cracking? How long before someone loses life on protest? There is a rupture point for each strongman mode, and it can be treated with one bullet.

The opposition intends to maintain pressure and demonstrations.

But after two decades at the top, Erdogan still has many loyal fans. It controls virtually all the leverage and seems determined. Over time, he will be engaged in demonstrations.

The President and his ruling parties will hope that the participants of the action will be tired and will return to the concern for inflation (39% in February), as well as the reduction of the cost of the Turkish lyre, not the freedom of expression and democracy.

In the coming days and weeks, check for the strength of both sides. But if other authoritarian countries have lessons that can be learned from street protests, a quick breakthrough looks unlikely.