Trump retains tariffs when the rest of the world plays a rigid ball

In the White House, Donald Trump was granted “90 transactions for 90 days” after partially stopping the recovery process that the US president called “mutual” tariffs.

In reality, on July 9, July 9 will not make nine transactions when we reach the first Trump cut date.

The fact is that poker “says”, if you like, it is an extension from Wednesday to 1 August, with the possibility of further expansion – or delay – ahead.

In terms of the United States, Finance Minister Scott Bavert says all attention was paid to 18 countries that are responsible for 95% trade deficit in America.

This week, bright letters sent from the US to their trading partners are just reincarnating this shameful White House “Blue Liberation Day”.

Tariffs are mostly the same as for the first time found on April 2. The shameful equation, which turned out, uses the measure of deficit as proxy for “the amount of all misleading trade” lives in shape.

This is all announced without market disturbances, which are observed earlier this year from this additional delay.

Financial markets believe in delays, in the idea of ​​Taco that Trump is always chickens – although they can reinforce the transition on all sides leading to a new crisis.

However, the real conclusion here was the inability of the Trump administration to conclude transactions. Letters are a recognition of failure.

The White House can play hard, but most other countries.

Japan and South Korea were allocated to the first two letters that effectively blew up their trade deals from the United States.

The Japanese did little to hide their rage on the approach to the US.

Its finance minister even hinted on the use of ownership of the world’s largest debt – mostly the largest banker of America – as a source of potential impact.

The dynamics since April has not changed.

Otherwise the world sees that the market punishes the US when the trade war looks real when American retailers warn the White House of higher prices and empty shelves.

And still there is a plausible court case that works through a system that can make tariffs illegal.

But the world now also begins to see the numerical influence of the world trading system.

The cost of the dollar this year decreased by 10% against a number of currencies.

At a hearing, he said he said the likely increase in the dollar value will help to mitigate any inflation.

On the contrary happened.

Trade numbers are also beginning to change. Massive reserves occurred before the tariffs, there were later significant falls.

Meanwhile, Chinese exports to the United States have fallen by 9.7%this year.

But China’s deliveries have grown by 6%. This includes export growth by 7.4% to the UK, an increase of 12.2% to 10 ASEAN -Alianci and 18.9% to Africa.

The numbers are changing, but according to what can be predicted.

Revenues from tariffs begin to infuse the US Treasury, and in May the receipt.

If the US is building a tariff wall around, the rest of the world will probably be more trading with each other – just look at the recent economic deals between the UK and India, the EU and Canada.

It is worth noting that the effective tariff rate imposed by the United States in the rest of the world is about 15%, reaching from 2% to 4% over the last 40 years. This is before further changes in these letters.

At the moment, the market reaction is calm. It may not remain like that.

Follow Trump’s second term with the weekly North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher Policy in the US is not caused Bulletin. Readers in the UK can Sign up here. Those outside the UK may Sign up here.