Trump Modi’s connection hit rock

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was one of the first world leaders to attend Washington a few weeks after US President Donald Trump started his second term.

He called Modi his “big friend” when two countries set ambitious purpose of doubling the trade Up to $ 500 billion by 2030.

But in less than six months, the relationship appears to be rock -day.

Now Trump has imposed a total of 50% tariffs on goods imported from IndiaAnd his former threat of recovering additional 10% for the country’s membership in the BRICS group, which includes China, Russia and South Africa, as the founders’ members, is still standing.

Initially, it made a 25% tariff, but on Wednesday announced an additional 25% as a punishment for the purchase of Russian oil in Delhi – a step that the Indian government called “Unjust, Unjustified.”

And just last week, Trump called India’s economy “dead”.

This is an extraordinary reversal in relations that have passed from strength to force over the last two decades, thanks to the efforts of consistent governments of both countries, two -party support and rapprochement of global problems.

Over the past few weeks, there have been positive signals from Washington and Delhi about a fast trading deal. Now it looks more difficult if not impossible.

So what went wrong?

A number of mistakes, big, geopolitics and internal political pressure seem to have smashed negotiations.

Delhi has been restrained in her response so far at Tirad Trump, hoping that diplomacy could eventually help secure a trading deal. But there is no guarantee in Trump’s White House.

Trump commented on many questions that Delhi considers red lines. The biggest among them – Trump repeatedly puts India and its competitor Pakistan on equal aspects.

A US President accepted the chief of the Pakistani Army Asim Munir In the White House, just a few weeks after the brutal conflict between two South Asia competitors.

He then signed a trade agreement with Pakistan, offering the country a preferential rate of 19%, as well as an agreement to study the country’s oil reserves. He went so far away, saying that if -Pakistan can sell oil to India.

Another constant Delhi’s constant stimulus is Trump’s repeated statement that the US has concluded a ceasefire between India and Pakistan.

India is considering its dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir as its internal affairs and has always rejected third mediation on the matter. Most of the world leaders were sensitive to Delhi’s position, including Trump in his first presidential position.

But this is not the case. The US president doubled his claim even after Modi told India’s Parliament that “no country was indirectly ceasefire.”

Modi did not name Trump or the US, but there is an internal political pressure on it, so as not to “worship” the White House.

“What is happening amid a heavy and high level of interaction with the US with Islamabad immediately after the conflict in India-Pakistan is even more fastened for Delhi and the general Indian public. All these those conquered in India cannot be trusted as a partner,” says South Asia Washington.

He adds that some wrath in Delhi can “be the luggage of the Cold War”, but “this time it is intensified in real time.”

The Modi government flourishes on nationalist issues, so its supporters are likely to expect a firm reaction to the US.

This is the situation in the Catch -22 -Delhi still wants to make a deal, but also does not want to face how Trump is bending.

And Delhi seems to gradually highlight restraint. In response to Washington’s wrath about the purchase of Russian oil in India, Delhi promised to take “all the necessary measures” to defend his “national interests and economic security”.

But the question is why Trump, who loved India’s hospitality and called it a great country earlier, went to the tirad against the trusted ally.

Some analysts see his insults as pressure tactics to provide a deal that he believes works for the United States.

“Trump is a real estate tycoon and a tough negotiator. His style may not be diplomatic, but he is looking for diplomats. So I think what he does is part of the negotiating strategy,” says Jitandra Missra, former Indian ambassador, and now Professor at OP Jindal Global University.

The Indian government source said Delhi gave a lot of concessions to Washington, including no tariffs for industrial goods, and a gradual decrease in car tariffs and alcohol. He also signed a deal to allow Elon Musk Starlink to start operations in India.

But Washington wanted to access agricultural and dairy sectors of India to reduce trade deficit by $ 45 billion he works with Delhi.

But these sectors are a red line for Modi, either, in this regard, any Indian Prime Minister. Agriculture and related sectors make up more than 45% of employment in India and Consistent governments fiercely guard farmers.

Mr. Kugelman believes that this Washington requirement is not an option for India.

“India first needs to give way to public anger and understand that it is not pressured. It is important for internal political reasons,” he says.

He also believes that Trump’s perseverance is to stop importing oil from Moscow, has more in common with it grows frustration Above Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“We see how Trump continues to strengthen the pressure tactics, trying to abandon Russia from the most important oil buyers, fined them for doing business with Moscow,” he says.

But Delhi cannot afford to stop importing oil from Russia overnight.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India is the third largest consumer in the world and may exceed China in higher position as its demand for energy will increase with the fast -grown middle class.

At present, Russia accounts for more than 30% of the total oil imports in India, which is 2021-22, which is less than 1%.

Many in the West view this as India indirectly finances Moscow’s war, but Delhi denies it, claiming that buying Russian oil at a discount provides energy security for millions of its citizens.

India also views Russia to its allies “all the weather”. Moscow has traditionally come to rescue Delhi during the past crises and still uses support among the general Indian public.

Moscow is also the largest weapon provider in Delhi, although its share in India has accelerated up to 36% from 2020-25 years from 55% between 2016 and 2020, the Stockholm International Peace Studies.

In many ways, this was due to the fact that Delhi increases domestic production and purchase more in the US, France and Israel.

But the role of Russia in the defense of India cannot be overstated. This is what the West understood and did not dispute – until Trump decided to abandon the established norms.

So far, India has been able to successfully undergo diplomatic sewage with the West overlooking its strong ties with Russia.

The United States has long viewed India as a Bulk against the dominance of China in the Indo-Pacific region, which provided Delhi’s two-party support in Washington.

And Moscow (though sometimes reluctant) did not respond to its allies, which are closely connected with Washington and other Western countries.

But now Trump has challenged this position. As Delhi reacts, it will decide the future of India and the United States relations.

India is measured in its response so far, but does not hold back completely. The statement said the US called for it to continue buying oil in Russia for the stability of the global energy market.

It also states that its orientation was unjustified because the EU continues to buy energy, fertilizer, mining and chemical products from Russia.

Although everything seems bad, some analysts say everything is not lost. India and the United States have close links in many sectors that cannot be eradicated overnight.

Both countries cooperate closely in space technologies, IT, education and protection.

Many large domestic IT firms have invested large funds in the US, and most large firms in the Silicone Valley operate in India.

“I believe The Indian Rocket directed jointly developed satellite into space– says Missra.

It will be interesting to see how India reacts to Trump’s sharp rhetoric.

“Trump is napologically transferred and commercial in his approach to foreign policy. He has no combination with the deployment of these potentially alienated hard tactics against a close partner as India,” says Mr. Kegelman.

But he adds that the partnership has a lot of trust, given the work that has entered it over the last two decades.

“So that the lost potentially can be restored. But from the -the extent of the current malaise it can take a long time.”

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