Trump ‘Chaos Agent and confusion, warning economists

World Market Volatility and Geopolitical Turbulence As a result of President Donald Trump’s return to White House led to warn that the US economy could head to recession – But economists say the decline is not in the cards.

“I don’t think we will talk about the recession in the US. The US economy is sustainable, I would say, largely, despite Donald Trump,” said Bank Bank Cholger Schmiding on Monday.

Sumiding, dubbing Trump “chaos and confusion”, said “zigzaging on the president’s tariffs shows that he has little idea of ​​the possible consequences of his tariff policy.”

However, “the US consumers have money that will spend (and) they will probably be. The labor market remains reasonable, and if energy prices are slightly decreasing, and probably some tax reductions and de -deregulation, I don’t think there is an inevitable recession risk,” Schmiding reports.

“But what is becoming more and more understandable in the long run, Trump harms US trends, that is, growth over the years after 2026. And it means higher prices for US consumers, which means in my opinion, the Fed (the Federal Reserve) has no reason to reduce rates with Trump as a president.

CNBC contacted the White House for the answer and waits for a reply.

In recent weeks, international stock markets have been shocked under their basis against the background of fears that Trump intends to revive the global trade war after the announcement of rigid tariffs for imports from China, Mexico and Canada.

The embarrassment and uncertainty followed when the president had announced last Friday that there would be an appeal And he delayed on April 2 at some tariffs for US neighbors and nearby trading partners.

Trump’s unconventional approach to trade and international diplomacy has left the markets not impressed, and we have indexes if they Strategists have warned that the mood on the negative market should continue in Trump’s 2.0 era. The US Futures fell earlier on Monday morning, which testifies to another rocky trip for US markets early in the new Week Trade Week.

Business leaders and economists have expressed concern that tariffs will lead to further inflation pressure on the US, and consumers are likely to blow at higher prices for imported goods.

They also warn that investments, jobs and growth can suffer if consumers tighten the belts and descend to wait for the period of economic unpredictability and Stagflation potential marked by high inflation and high unemployment.

This would put pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates, Instead of cutting their current indicator in range from 4.25%-4.5%in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Low interest rates can nourish more costs, and in turn inflation.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that the Central Bank could wait to learn how Trump’s aggressive actions are played before he was moving at interest rates again.

Recent Economic data show Consumer confidence has taken a hit In February, there will be food for reflection for Trump administration. Federal Reserve Bank Atlanta Gdpnow Last week, the tracker tracker also noted that between January and March between January and March between January and March, from January to March, it could be reduced by 2.4%. The technical recession is determined as it occurs when at least two consecutive quarters fit negative growth.

Data on jobs last week also showed that when the labor market in the US is still expanding, signs of weakness can also start crawling.

Wages for impassable increased increased by seasonally adjusted 151,000 per month, which exceeded the reduced revised 125,000 on January 125, but coming below 170,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones, Bureau of Labor Labor Labor on Friday. The unemployment rate increased to 4.1%.

US Economist’s TS Lombard Economist Stephen Blitz said the latest jobs “tell us that the economy continues to grow” and does not signal the “increased risks of the recession created by Trump’s array.”

In the Friday note, he stated that “the amount of Trump’s actions could still perish the economy in any way, including in the cost of capital.”

“Keep in mind that the presidents are known to take downturn in one of their presidents. This is a free pass, they blame the previous president and take a loan for recovery. My basic case is still a height, and the Fed that holds stationary.

Trump refused to exclude the possibility of recession this year, but insisted that this weekend the economy was in the “transition period”.

Answering a question about the Atlanta’s warning about economic cuts Futules “Fox News” on Sunday morning“Trump seemed to admit that his tariff plans could affect US growth.

“I hate to predict such things,” he said In an interview she aired on SundayAsked if the recession warning causes.

“There is a transition period because what we do is very big. We return wealth to America. That’s a big thing.” The White House leader added: “It takes a little time. It takes a little time.”

Last week, the JPMorgan intelligence unit noted that the US economy introduces “another period of uncertainty”, given the unpredictable nature of the tariffs. Analysts have stated that the Bear Ratio in US Actions, Waiting that the markets will see more volatility and growth, potentially “crater”.

“We have already seen the negative impact that the policy/trade in uncertainty on both home and corporate costs, so we probably see the greater value of this next month. Keep track of unemployment, dismissal, warnings, etc.

While the recession in the US was not the Bank’s basic scenario, JPMorgan analysts have warned that “the uncertain tariffs and the potential of the trade war will see acceleration in new tariffs (funds), we believe that stocks will dispute because US GDP assessments are reduced.”

“Given the lack of potential cessation of this escalation, the expectation is that the tariffs for these Canada and Mexico drive in the recession. Look for GDP growth expectations, and to revise profits, which will be substantially lower, forcing the projections of the year.