Time us treats rare land as a force. China is already doing

In April 2025, China imposed new export elements of elements of rare land and permanent magnets obtained from them – materials that form the basis of modern life and modern war. Fighters, rocketsElectric cars, drones, wind turbines and even data centers rely on high -performance magnets made of these critical minerals. By limiting their flow, Beijing was not just bent in industrial muscles, he found that American and the rest of the dangerous vulnerability of the world. The last Chinese actions Show your willingness and ability to equip American and global addiction.

This is not a new problem. For over 15 years, the United States has known that its important mineral supply networks were too concentrated, too fragile and too exposed to Chinese leverage and control. Nevertheless, within the framework of the democratic and republican administrations, we were unable to respond with urgency and cohesiveness. Now the consequences of these failures have seized us by the neck and cascade in our commercial and defense sectors.

Following London talks, Washington and Beijing announced Friday A new trading base Under which China will restore export licenses on rare land over the next six months. US officials have publicly glorified a breakthrough – but they offered some details about what was given in return. This leaves the main questions unanswered: what were the compromises in the US? How will a deal be performed? And what happens when six months are over?

Skepticism is high. Recently, Ford stopped production at its Chicago factory due to lack of magnet-protruding that even short-term supplies have real consequences. Paper agreements are not supply chain solutions. Without transparency, timely approval and long -term planning, this can easily become another diplomatic cycle of one step forward, two steps back.

Even this limited appeal carries the risk. Described dozens of companies in Europe and North America The export license process in China is as very invasive . Some applicants were denied that they did not provide photos and documentation of their end users.

The executives say the process consists of “official information information”.

While firms are advised not to share a sensitive IP, the lowering details may mean uncertain delays. For companies that are on the protection networks, the consequences are anxious: valuable commercial intelligence can be used to display competitors, pricing or promoting Chinese substitutes.

It’s not just licensing – it’s a competitive observation. And until the US is building a safe, independent power throughout the supply chain, it remains both violation and the risk of data.

This vulnerability did not occur over the night. Many have watched this slow train crash over the years. In 2010, China disabled rare land exports to Japan during a marine dispute, a clear warning was lifted in the United States, but leaned back. In 2014, the Obama administration won the WTO case against China’s exports, but mistakenly believes that legal success will restrain further manipulations.

What did Trump, Biden

Trump’s first administration defined rare land as critical, but in particular, released them from the tariffs for China 2018, perhaps the unspoken recognition of the US dependence. Biden has accepted the most structured approach to this day: executive order 14017, a working group of critical minerals, and financing IIJA and IRA. Strategic partnerships such as Minerals Security Partnership have emerged. But progress was slow, hindered the resolution and unequal liabilities for the ally.

The second Trump administration returned with more aggressive measures, referring to Section 232, intensifying the Protection Law and offering a basic increase in financing in FY2026. The National Energy Council is now coordinating efforts. However, these measures, like the six-month Chinese, are still not enough from the capture of Beijing. And most importantly, the defensive sector remains disabled, without such a licensing window.

A recent G7 summit in Canada emphasized world rates. President of the European Commission Ursul von der Leyen directly accused China of “weapons” of his control Above key materials such as rare land, calling for a united G7 response. Result: A G7 Critical Minerals Plan Action. Although China was not mentioned by name, the implication was unmistakably. The plan obliges the G7 members to raise ESG standards and trace key resources; mobilize capital for new projects in critical mining and processing minerals; and cooperate in the field of innovation in processing, replacement and processing of technology.

Predictably, Beijing reacted with furious. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has rejected the plan as a “base” for protectionism, saying that the G7 is a confrontation with the fear of losing the market share.

Currently, Brussels indicates that trade negotiations with Beijing are ending effectively, so the chances of Chinese revenge – especially against the EU – are growing. When China is doubled, it risks pushing the EU, Japan, South Korea and India more densely into Washington’s orbit – exactly what he hopes to avoid.

China’s dominant position in rare land

The raw figures are stunning. China accounts for approximately 70% of worldwide rare land mining, but more than 90% of the processing power. It produces 92% of the worldwide Magnets Nonodyimo-Zalera (NDFEB) are used in everything from submarines to Teslas. This is not accidental. China subsidized processing on global acquisitions throughout the supply chain and increases production much faster than the West can approve and issue a single mine permit.

The US is like sites like MP’s material‘The mountain passage and the round top remain incomplete without treatment. DOD and DOE have offered grants, and the Trump 2016 budget looks on US power extension and provide access to critical minerals. But all this remains a dwarf of China’s head and long -standing industrial command and sector control.

China moved early and firmly to Africa and Latin America, cooperating with the governments in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bolivia and Chile; Investing in ports, rails and infrastructure clarification. Unlike this, the US efforts and interaction in these sets of issues have been in the cure and values ​​that prefer transparency and management, really important issues, but providing a limited impulse of critical problems. Even the recent Interior Ministry with Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of the Congo still remain symbolic, which hinder conflict and instability in these countries.

London talks and recent trade progress bought time. But time without strategy is not fruitful. The Chinese licensing mode remains intact, its data requires unusable. The defense sector remains closed. Meanwhile, the threats in Congress abolish pure energy and industrial policies can stop rare and earthly projects as they get craving.

This is a crucial moment. China is betting that internal divisions of America – between work, industry, environmentalists, tribal nations and political fractions – to prevent the appearance of the uniform, sustainable effort necessary for competition. They may be right. The US should prove them wrong.

Critical minerals – geopolitical force

The US should now consider critical minerals not as goods, but as instruments of geopolitical force. China is already doing. Escape from his clutch will require more than resolutions and short -term funding. It requires a coherent and long -term strategy for creating a full supply chain, which includes not only internal capabilities, but also reliable allies and partners. From mining and clarification to the production and disposal of magnets, each connection should be strengthened by focused investment, reform permit and strategic coordination.

A successful and sustainable policy requires commitments from one president to another. Also, the US cannot afford to attract allies and partners only rhetorically. Countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Chile and Indonesia (among others) need sustainable partnerships that are supported by funding, technology transfer and critical investments in infrastructure, not just our lectures on management.

A six-month payment of payment from China is not a solution is a stress test. This shows whether the US can finally focus and act, or retreat again. Beijing is betting it will be the last. Washington should respond to urgency, unity and strategy equal to the problem. There is still time but not much.

.By Dewardric McnealHead Director and Senior Analyst LongView Global and CNBC participant