“There is no alternative to Alexander Lukashenko”

There are moments in history when countries are gripped by election fever.

January 2025 in Belarus is not one of them.

Driving around Minsk, you will not see large billboards with portraits of candidates.

There is little campaigning.

The gray sky and wet snow of the Belarusian winter intensify the feeling of inactivity.

And inevitability.

The result of the 2025 presidential election is beyond doubt. Alexander Lukashenko, who was once called “the last dictator of Europe”, who ruled Belarus with an iron hand for more than 30 years, will be declared the winner and will receive the seventh presidential term.

His supporters call it an exercise in “Belarusian democracy”. His opponents dismiss the process as a “farce”.

Even Lukashenko himself claims that he is not interested in this process.

“I don’t follow the election campaign, I don’t have time,” the Belarusian leader told workers at the Minsk Automobile Plant this week.

The workers presented him with a gift: an ax for chopping firewood.

“I will try before the elections,” Lukashenko promised to thunderous applause.

Four and a half years ago, at another enterprise, the leader of Belarus was greeted much cooler.

A week after the 2020 presidential election, Alexander Lukashenko visited the Minsk wheeled tractor plant. The leaked video shows him being mocked and taunted by the workers. They shouted “Leave! Go away!”.

In 2020, the official election result — 80% for Mr. Lukashenka — sparked anger and mass protests across the country. Belarusians took to the streets to accuse their leader of stealing their votes and elections.

In the brutal police crackdown that followed, thousands of anti-government protesters and critics were arrested. In the end, a wave of repression quelled the protests, and with the help of Russia, Mr. Lukashenka clung to power.

Great Britain, the European Union and the United States refuse to recognize him as the legitimate president of Belarus.

The most ardent opponents (and potential competitors) of Alexander Lukashenko are either in prison or forced to emigrate.

That is why this week the European Parliament adopted a resolution in which it called on the EU to reject the upcoming presidential elections as “fake” and noted that the election campaign is taking place “under conditions of severe repression that do not even meet the requirements of the minimum standards of democratic elections.”

I remember interviewed Alexander Lukashenko in October last yearon the day of the announcement of the date of the presidential elections.

“How can these elections be free and democratic when the opposition leaders are in prisons or abroad?” I asked.

“Do you actually know who the opposition leaders are?” Lukashenko hit back.

“The opposition is a group of people that should serve the interests of at least a small number of people in the country. Where are these leaders you speak of? Wake up!”

Alexander Lukashenko is not the only candidate. There are four more. But they look more like spoilers than serious contenders.

I travel four hours from Minsk to meet one of them. Siarhei Syrankou is the leader of the Party of Communists of Belarus. In the city of Vitebsk, I am sitting at one of his pre-election events. In a large hall, Mr. Syrankou addresses a small audience, next to the party emblem – hammer and sickle.

His campaign slogan, to put it mildly, is unusual: “Not instead of, but together with Lukashenka!”

He is a presidential candidate who openly supports his opponent.

“There is no alternative to Alexander Lukashenko as the leader of our country,” Mr. Syrankou tells me. “Thus, we are participating in the election with the president’s team.”

“Why do you think there is no alternative?” I ask.

“Because Lukashenka is a man of the people, a man of the land, who did everything so that we would not have such chaos as in Ukraine.”

“You are fighting for power yourself, but you support another candidate. This is… unusual,” I guess.

“I am sure that Alexander Lukashenko will win the main victory. But even if he wins and I don’t, the communists will win,” Mr. Syrankou replied.

“The main communist in our country is the head of our state. Lukashenka still has an old membership card from the time of the Soviet Communist Party.”

The leader of the right-wing Liberal-Democratic Party of Belarus, Aleh Haidukevich, also appears on the ballot. He also does not run to win.

“If someone dares to assume that the election result is unknown, he is a liar,” Mr. Gaidukevich tells me.

“Obviously, Lukashenka will win. He has a great rating… We will fight to strengthen our positions and prepare for the next elections.”

Critics of Mr. Lukashenka reject the claim that his popularity is “enormous.” But there is no doubt that he has support.

On the outskirts of Vitebsk is the town of Oktyabrskaya. Talking to people there, I can see the concern that a change in leadership could cause instability.

“I want a stable salary, stability in the country,” welder Sergei tells me. “Other candidates make promises but may not keep them. I want to keep what is.”

“The situation today is very tense,” says Zenaida. “Perhaps there are other people worthy of power. But it will take a long time for the younger leader to sit down at the table and make important connections with other countries and with his own people.

“God forbid that we end up like Ukraine.”

Today in Belarus there is a fear of instability, fear of the unknown, fear of the government. Everything works in favor of Alexander Lukashenko.