The world economy is facing the wind but as expected

The global economy may encounter an uncertain 2025 in light of tension and geopolitical conflicts, but there is a bright place that investors can comfort: aviation.

The profitability of the aviation industry is expected to improve in 2025, despite the fact that the global growth of the gross domestic product is projected to decrease to 2.5% in 2025 with 3.3% in 2024, the International Air Transport Association reports.

In a report published on Monday, IATA noted that the profit, profit from the operation and net income of the industry is expected to increase compared to 2024, although some of them were lower than the forecasts made in December.

For example, net income for the industry is forecast for $ 36 billion for $ 2025, which compared to $ 32.4 billion in 2024, but slightly lower than in December projection of $ 36.6 billion.

Pure profit of the aviation industry is also projected to 3.7% in 2025, with 3.4% last year.

It is projected that the total income has reached a record high level of $ 979 billion, which is 1.3% higher than last year, but compared to $ 1 trillion in the last forecast.

IATA attributed the best results, mainly on two factors: reducing reactive fuel and greater efficiency.

The passenger load factors are expected to reach over the whole time in 2025, an average of 84%, “because the expansion of the fleet and the modernization remains difficult to fail in the supply chain in the aerospace sector.” PLF Shows how effectively the airline fills its places.

Reactive fuel expenses are expected to be an average of $ 86 per barrel in 2025, decreasing compared to $ 99 in 2024, said IATA, saying that it would lead to a total fuel account of $ 236 billion, which is $ 261 billion.

“The latest financial data shows the minimum fuel hedge activity over the last year, which indicates that the airline will usually benefit the reduction of the fuel value. It is not expected that the fuel will affect the trade tensions,” IATA said.

India and Pakistan Recently closed the air space To each other’s planes after the military strikes, which were conducted by both parties in May. Pakistani planes are prohibited from Indian airspace until June 23, and Indian planes are banned from Pakistan until June 24.

“Uncertainty is not useful for business, but the basic basics of this market … And up, which we see ahead of Air India, moves us forward because we believe there is a great opportunity to implement,” Wilson added.

He said that India’s third-range air travel market has estimated that it is growing at an annual growth rate of 8% to 10%. “So, if the Indians start traveling … With China’s intensity, it will completely explode at the international level,” he said.

Adrian Noihauzer, President and CEO of the Colombian Flag, stated in an interview on Sunday, “when the world sneezes … Airlines just get sick very soon.”

However, he said, Avianca’s passengers are still holding up and the profit has improved. “So there is concern, but today we still see that there are figures.”

Income passenger kilometers or rpk, there are A measure of the volume of passengers carried out by the airline. The metric is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the airline and the demand for the passenger.

IATA has stated that “if the airline sees a consistent increase in RPKS on a certain route for months, it can push the carrier increase the frequency or deploy a larger aircraft to meet growing demand – potentially increasing the profit and share of the market.”

This is due to the strong demand of passengers in the Asia-Pacific region with visa relaxation in several Asian countries, especially in China, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand.

However, IATA noted that the economic landscape causes some problems and the GDP forecast for the region, in particular China, was reduced.