The underwater volcano off Oregon will erupt this year, scientists predict

Bring on the BOOM. It is, of course, the Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano off Oregon that scientists predict will erupt this year.

U Axial Seamount is the most active submarine volcano in its northeastern part of the Pacific Ocean, according to the dedicated seamount blog. It is placed on the Crest Juan de Fucaabout 300 miles (483 kilometers) west of the Oregon coast. And based on recent observations, the deep sea volcano is fit to erupt for the first time since 2015. A group of earth scientists led by William Chadwick, a volcanologist at Oregon State University, reported his predictions at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union last month.

Scientists first studied the volcano in the late 1970s, which is known to have erupted three times, in 1998, 2011, and 2015. The key piece of data in predicting a volcanic eruption is to know the degree to which the seamount is inflated – a sign that the magma has. built below the surface, swelling the upper features of the structure.

Axial’s inflation and seismicity are monitored by a network of NSF-funded sensors called the Ocean Observatories Initiative Regional Cabled Array (don’t worry, we won’t test you on it). Last year, after a sustained period of slowing inflation, Axial’s inflation rate increased from a slow recovery (since October 2023) to about twice the January 2024 rate since last June. In addition to its increased inflation (about 9.84 inches, or 25 centimeters, per year), the seismicity of the underwater volcano has increased to hundreds of earthquakes per day. In July, scientists studying data from Axial determined that “the next eruption looks like it could happen anytime between NOW and the end of 2025,” according to the blog.

Well, no eruption has happened since then, and in October 2024 the team published another update. “The rate of inflation in Axial has been steady for the past 6 months and the rate of seismicity is moderate,” the team wrote. “An eruption doesn’t seem imminent, but it can’t do this forever.” In other words, there was no change to their prediction, and given that it is now 2025, the team’s prediction is that an eruption will occur this year.

In their AGU presentation, the team stated that Axial has swelled to more than 95% of its limit before the 2015 eruption – a major indicator that an eruption is somewhere around the corner.

If the 2015 eruption By any indication, the expected eruption could be accompanied by thousands of earthquakes and a sea floor drop of nearly 8 feet (2.4 meters). The sea floor falls because magma is ejected from the swollen volcano into the ocean. Once that is done, the magma begins to slowly take over the mountain, starting the whole process over again.

Underwater volcanoes can be dangerous; look no further than the Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha’apai eruption what you do cleared the South Pacific in 2022, forcing mass evacuations, covering Tonga in ash, and causing many deaths and tens of millions of dollars in damage. Chadwick – the head of the research team – said Science News that predicting the potential impact of the eruption on humanity is difficult, but volcanoes on land are generally more dangerous than seamounts. For reference, the 2015 Axial eruption it did not cause any reported impact on the ground.