The UK government does not recognize this but tax raises come

The UK government hates to acknowledge this, but economists say it is likely that the Treasury will have to hiking in the fall, if it includes a black hole in state finances it effectively created for itself.

National Institute for Economic and Social Studies (NIESR)-Apostle Economic Analytical Center, which warns that taxes should rise at the end of this year when British Chancellor Rachel Riviz will comply with its independently imposed “fiscal rule”.

These rules are oriented by the end of the decade, both balanced and budget-called “stability rules” that require daily costs funded by tax resources rather than debt-and debt as a gDP share (2029-30).

“The government does not go on the way to fulfill its” stability rules “, and our forecast suggests that currently £ 41.2 billion in 2029-30,” Niesr said in an economic forecast published on Wednesday.

“Significant adjustments in the autumn budget will be required if the chancellor remains appropriate for its financial rule,” the report added.

If the government has corrected its expense plans for the next couple of years in its recent expense review, “the only, affordable lever is an increase in a moderate but sustainable way,” the report called “Three Chancellor” said.

“Trilem” refers to the binding of the Riviz, thanks to its own financial rules, taxation and expenses made over the last year, and the Labor Party Manifesto does not raise taxes on “workers”.

“Simply put, the chancellor cannot simultaneously comply with his financial rules, fulfill the costs and maintain the manifesto, promising to avoid taxes for the workers.

It is worth noting that the NiesR forecast for a budget deficit may be even higher, approximately £ 51.1 billion, if it wants to save about £ 9.9 billion, which planned the treasury, but slowly tapped after cutting off the fuel fuel for fuel for cutting fuel.

“In order for the chancellor to really change the dial and build a buffer in size by its financial rules, it will have to look at either the increase in income taxes. Profit.

British Prime Minister Kayer Older was asked about the NIESR report on Wednesday, and the opinion that the tax would be necessary, but said he “did not recognize” the figures. However, he refused to exclude VAT hike, income tax and corporation tax in the fall, Reported about Sky News.

“Some figures that are outlined are not the numbers I admit, but the budget will not be by the end of the year, and so we will have a forecast, and we will lay out our plans,” he said.

Niesr said Chancellor Riviz is facing “unenviable decisions” for the autumn budget when it opens taxation and plans for the next year.

“Unfortunately, the most politically acceptable choice to increase taxes will either lead to very little income, or will have great distortions or both,” the analytical center said, according to some measures – for example, the extension of income tax thresholds – especially affect poor households. “

Other measures such as reducing current taxes worth of taxation, or increasing capital gains rate, may not save savings, warns an analytical tank.

The government can also change the reduction of the national insurance of workers (NICS), but “while this will lead to significant revenues compared to the parliamentary term,” this will again lead to the manifesto does not raise taxes on working people and may have strong “distortions, persuading the creation of jobs, and therefore more likely to increase.”

If the jerk announced Its government budget last fall presented a $ £ 70 billion, funded by higher borrowings and 40 billion pounds that were mostly affected by British enterprises.

At the time, she insisted that this was a one -time step, saying that “we are not going to return with a greater tax increase or really more borrowing.”

Riviz can potentially adjust tax rates and corporation assistance, which can also raise significant tax revenues, but this will be contrary to its previous promise of tax on the corporation by 25% for parliamentary service.

This may also have a negative effect About the confidence in the business that has already taken the stroke after the hike to the NIC employers who came into force in April.