The new South Korean president has a Trump -form crisis to avoid

The new South Korean president, Lee Jo Mun, has won, but his honeymoon will barely last a day.

The former opposition leader does not enjoy the two -month transition period, which is usually provided by the new leader, so they can create their team and nail their vision of the country.

Instead, he immediately entered the office to fill the hole left by the impeachment of former President Jonah Suka Yoeol, who tried and could not bring the country to martial law in December last year.

Choosing Lee, almost 50% of the vote, the South Koreans severely rejected the military dictatorship, which was almost forced. Lee led to the promise that he would strengthen South Korea’s democracy and unite the country after a separate and violent six months.

But it will have to wait. For the first time, it has a Donald Trump crisis to avoid.

In the coming months, Trump has power to destabilize South Korea’s economy, its safety and changing relations with North Korea.

The South Koreans were scary when Trump hit 25% tariffs for all Korean imports in April, after hitting the country with aggressive tariffs on major industries – steel and cars. They suggested that being a long -standing military allies since the war in Korea and the US agreement with the United States will regret them.

When these tariffs come into force, “they could cause the economic crisis,” said Democratic Party Advisor Lee, Moon Chung-In.

South Korea’s economy has already slowed down Trump’s ads. Chaos of martial law narrowed it further. Then, in the first quarter of this year, he signed a contract. The correction of this was the demand of voters, even above, which corrected its decorative democracy.

But without the president, talks with Trump were on maintenance. They can no longer be postponed.

And in these negotiations there is much more than South Korea’s economy.

The US is currently guaranteed the safety of South Korea, promising to come to its protection both ordinary and nuclear weapons when it was attacked by its nuclear armed neighbor of North Korea. The country has 28,500 US troops.

However, Trump has made it clear that he did not plan to distinguish between trade and safety when negotiating from South Korea, signaling that Seoul does not lead to weight in any area.

A report on his social platform in April, Trump said that during the initial tariffs with South Korea, he “discussed the payment for the Great Military Defense, which we provide,” calling it “beautiful and effective purchases”.

This approach makes Seoul clearly vulnerable.

Evans Revere, a former senior US diplomat who fears a crisis. “For the first time in our lives, we have a US president who does not feel a moral and strategic commitment to Korea.”

In his first term, President Trump questioned the value that the US forces were located in Korea and threatened to withdraw them unless Seoul paid more. It seems that this time he will require more money.

Seoul may not want to pay more, but it can afford it. The big problem is that Trump’s calculations and its protection seem to have changed. It’s not just money. Washington’s main priority in Asia not just stops North Korea, which attacks the South but also hold China’s military ambitions in the region and against Taiwan.

Last year, a senior US defense official, Elbridge Kolby, said that South Korea would have to take over “preferred responsibility for its own self -defense against North Korea” so that the United States could be willing to fight China.

One option is that the troops located here would switch their attention to holding back China. The other Last month is outlined by several US defense officialsIt concludes that thousands of soldiers will be taken out of the peninsula in general and redistributed, and that Seoul’s military must also play a role in Beijing.

Not only can this be put in South Korea into a dangerous military position, but also to create diplomatically difficult.

President Lee, who historically skeptical of Korea’s alliance with the United States wants to use his presidency to improve relations with China, a powerful South Korean neighbor and trading partner. He said several times that South Korea should remain in conflict between China and Taiwan.

“We must keep the distance from the emergency in China in Taiwan. We can get along with both,” he said during the television discussion last month.

Political adviser Mr Mun, who once held the post of national security, confirmed the problems of Lee. “We are worried that America has abandoned us, but at the same time we are experiencing in order to secure the American strategy to hold and surround China,” he said. “If the US threatens us, we can let go (forces),” he said.

For Mr. Revere, a former American diplomat, this combination of Lee, Trump and China threatens to create a “perfect storm”. “Both leaders can be on a wide variety of pages, and this can become a recipe for problematic relationships. If it is going out, it will undermine peace and stability in northeast Asia.”

In Pyongyang, Kim Jong Un will undoubtedly watch and seek to use comfortable land. His nuclear weapons program is more dangerous than when -nothing, and nothing was able to convince him -including Donald Trump, who during his first term was the first president of the United States, who was met by the North Korean leader.

Since returning to the Trump’s office, he stated that he would like to resume negotiations with Kim that ended without consent in 2019. Seoul has a real concern that this time a couple can make a deal that is very bad for South Korea.

Fear is that Trump has accepted the “America first” approach and ask Kim to stop producing its intercontinental ballistic missiles that threaten the US mainland without resorting to several nuclear weapons aimed at Seoul. And in return Kim may require a high price.

Kim has much more leverage than in 2019. He has more nuclear warheads, his weapons are more advanced, and the sanctions that were supposed to exert pressure on his regime estimated that he was largely due to Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader provides someone’s economic and military support in return for assistance in North Korea, fighting the war in Ukraine.

So, it gives Kim a cover to make more daring US requests. He could ask Trump to accept North Korea as a state of nuclear weapons and agree to a transaction that would reduce Pyongyang’s weapons rather than get rid of them at all. Another of his requests is likely to be removed for the US safety that it provides South Korea, including troops.

“North Korea is now in the driver’s seat. The only curve of the ball is how much the risk of President Trump,” said Sydney Seiller, who participated in the 2019 talks on the US side. “The idea may be some conclusion of the squad (included in the transaction) is not really so far -fetched.”

Mr. Sayller emphasized that the United States “did not leave South Korea in the dust” but advised the new South Korean president to “establish relations with Trump” and be clear that they would expect part of any process when the conversations are materialized.

The new president must move quickly on all fronts, Mr -n reverse added, claiming that Lee’s first task should make a list of 10 reasons why South Korea is an indispensable partner and why US dollars are well spent; Causes that can persuade skeptical and transactional Trump.

One of the ACE South Korea cards hopes to play shipbuilding. It builds more vessels than any other Country Bar China, which is now a dominant in the world by the builder of ships and the home of the largest Military Fleet. This is a terrible prospect for the US whose own industry and fleet are in decline.

Last month, I visited the South Korean flagship in Ulsan on the Southern coast – the world’s largest in the world – where Hyundai Heavy Industries is building 40-50 new ships a year, including military -marital disgracers. Reliable cranes that cut metal sheets, creating vessels the size of small villages.

Seoul hopes he can use this experience to create, repair and maintain warships for the United States, and in this process to convince Washington that this is a valuable partner.

“Difficulties in the US shipbuilding affect their national security,” said Chen Wu, the head of the Hyundai military strategy. “This is one of the strongest cards we have to negotiate.”

In his campaign for President Lee Jo-Mun said he did not want to hurry in any agreements with Trump. Now he could soon be without this luxury.