The forecast of the earthquake passed the viral. Does people give false hope?

Bron Dmitry calls himself a predictor of the earthquake.

In mid -October, he told tens of thousands of followers of social media that the earthquake would soon hit at the western point of California, south of the small coastal city of Euro.

Two months later, Magnituda 7.3 inflicted on the site in Northern California – putting millions under a tsunami warning and growing next on the Internet Mr. Dmitry when they turned to it to predict the next one.

“So, people who release what I do, as you can say, it is just a coincidence. A serious skill is required to find out where the earthquakes will go,” he said on the eve of the New Year.

But there is one problem: earthquakes cannot be predicted, scientists who study them say.

And it is this unpredictability that makes them so restless. Millions of people living on the west coast of North America are afraid that “big” can strike at any moment, changing landscapes and countless lives.

Lucy Jones, a seismologist who worked in the US Geological Service (USGS) for more than three decades and a book author called “Great”, has focused most of the studies on the likelihood of an earthquake and improving sustainability to resist such cataclysmic events.

While she studied the earthquakes, Mrs. Jones said there were people who wanted to answer when “big” – it means different things in different regions – they will happen and claim that the code has hacked.

“The need for human need to make the picture before the danger is extremely strong, it is a very normal human reaction to the fight,” she said the BBC. “But it has no prognostic force.”

According to the US Geological Service (USGS), when about 100,000 earthquakes are felt worldwide, it is clear that people want to warn.

The Eureka -Coastal City Square is 270 miles (434 km) north of San Francisco, where the earthquake took place in December, felt more than 700 earthquakes in the last year alone – including more than 10 over the last week, the data shows.

According to USGS, in this region, where Mr. Dmitry, it was correctly guessed that the earthquake is one of the most “seismically active areas”. Its volatility is associated with three tectonic plates, a zone known as Mendosin three times the junction.

It is the movement of the plates towards each other – whether above, below or nearby – causes stress. An earthquake may occur when the stress is released.

It was guessed that the earthquake would happen here – it is a simple bet, said Ms Jones, although a strong size of seven is quite rare.

Only 11 such earthquakes or the strongest since 1900 have occurred in the same region.

Although the assumption was correct, Mrs. Jones said the BBC that it is unlikely that the earthquake – including the largest types that destroy the society – if – will be able to predict any accuracy.

Ms. Jones notes the complex and “dynamic” set of geological factors that lead to the earthquake.

The magnitude of the earthquake is most likely formed when an event occurs, she said, using a gap of paper as an analogy: RIP will continue if there is nothing to stop it or slows down – for example, watermarks that leave the paper wet.

Scientists know why the earthquake is going on – sudden movements along the malfunction lines – but the forecasting of such an event is what USGs say that it is impossible to do, and something “we don’t expect to learn how in the foreseeable future.”

The agency notes that it can calculate the likelihood of an earthquake in a certain region for a certain number of years – but it is as close as they can come.

Geological records show that some of the largest types of earthquakes known as “big” for locals, happen with certain regularity. It is known that the subduction zone slides every 300 to 500 years, regularly subjected to the Pacific Northwest coast with 100 feet (30.5 meters) height of mega.

While San Andreas’s malfunction in Southern California is also the source of another “great” potential, with earthquakes held by bones every 200-300 years. Experts said the “big” could happen at any time in any region.

Ms. Jones says she had several thousand people who warned her about such forecasts of the great earthquake for her career – including people in the 1990s who would send faxes to their office in the hope of warning them.

“If you get the forecast every week, someone is lucky, right?” she says with laughter. “But then it usually goes to the head, and they predicted another 10, which was not right.”

It seems that such a scenario happened to Mr. Dmitry, who has no science. He has long predicted that an incredibly large 10.3 earthquake struck a blow to the southwest of Alaska or on the islands off the New Zealand coast, so strong that he said he could break global trade.

USGS says the earthquake’s forecasting must have three certain elements – date and time, earthquake and value placement – in order to benefit.

But Dmitry’s term continues to change.

At one point, he said he would come directly to US President Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Then he said it would certainly happen by 2030.

While this significant earthquake has not yet hit, Mr. Dmitry said he still believes it would happen.

“I don’t believe it is just by accident,” Mr. Dmitry said in the BBC. “It is no accident and no luck.”

This type of thinking is common when it comes to earthquakes, said Ms. Jones.

“Random distributions can look the way they have models, we see the constellations in the stars,” she said.

“A lot of people are really afraid of earthquakes, and the way with it is to predict (if) it happens.”

But just because you cannot predict if the earthquake is a strike does not mean that you should be unprepared, experts said.

Every year, on the third Thursday in October, millions of Americans participate in the largest earthquake drill: great.

It was created by a group in the center of the earthquake of South California, which included Ms Jones.

During training, people practice dropping, covers and holding: they kneel, cover under a durable object like a table, and hold on for one minute.

The drill has become so popular since its creation that it has laid out the coast earthquake to other states and countries.

If people are advised to reach open space from trees, buildings and power lines. Next to the ocean, people practice running away to the highest land after the tremb stops to prepare for the tsunami possibility.

“Now, though the earth is not shaking, although this is not a very tense situation, it’s a really best time for practice,” said Brian Terbush, the head of the earthquake and volcano program in the Washington State Emergency Department.

In addition to training, residents of the Western Coast use a telephone notification system that is supported by USGS called Shakealart.

The system works by revealing the waves of pressure emitted by the earthquake. Although this cannot predict when the earthquake happens in the distant future, it gives seconds of warning that can be rescue. Until now, he has been invented closest to the “predictor” of the earthquake.