The forecast is forecast as a larger economy as possible

The forecast for US economic growth this year was granted the largest decline among the progressed economies by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of the uncertainty caused by trade tariffs.

It is expected that this year’s growth will be 1.8%, which is 2.7% compared to the IMF estimate in January.

A sharp increase in tariffs and uncertainty will lead to a “significant slowdown” in global growth, the fund predicts.

The prognosis for the UK was also shortenedIf the economy is expected to grow by 1.1% this year.

But the IMF predicted that the UK economic growth would be stronger than Germany, France and Italy.

However, inflation in the UK will be the highest in the world’s economy, this year by 3.1%, mainly thanks to higher bills, including for energy and water.

Forecasts come when leading economic politicians are gathering in Washington for the IMF and the World Bank.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gurinchy said the world economy “still carries significant scars” of “serious upheaval over the last four years”.

“Now he is seriously checking again,” he added.

This year, President Donald Trump has made a flurry of tariffs – taxes charged for goods brought to the United States from other countries.

In the growing trade war, the United States posted tariffs up to 145% on Chinese goods, while China returned from 125% of US products.

The United States also introduced 10% tax rate from the vast majority of other countries, while 90 days have stopped much higher rates for dozens of peoples.

Trump says tariffs will encourage US consumers to buy more US -made goods, increase the amount of tax, and will lead to huge levels of investment in the country.

However, the IMF emphasized the potential negative impact on global trade, given that modern supply chains are so interconnected.

Mr. Gurinhas said the uncertainty around trade policy was a “main factor”.

“When faced with increased uncertainty … The initial reaction of many firms will suspend, reduce investments and reduce purchases.”

The IMF predicts that this year the world economy will grow by 2.8%, which is 3.3% and 3.0% compared to the previous forecast in 2026.

The IMF said the decrease in the US growth forecast occurred because of greater uncertainty of politics, trade tensions and slower than expected consumer expenses. Tariffs are expected to achieve growth in 2026.

The IMF said there was a 40% likely recession in the United States this year, higher than 25% in October last year.

Earlier on Tuesday the bank group Institute of International Finance He said that the “small recession” was expected in the US at the end of this year, with negative growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2025.

China is expected to grow by 4% this year, which is 4.6% compared to the IMF estimate.

In the UK, the decrease revision reflects the effect of tariffs, higher borrowing costs and weaker consumer expenses as a result of higher energy bills and costs.

However the IMF’s 2025 forecast for the UK is now close to Growth forecast by 1% on budget liability for budget liability (OBR) last month. The IMF expects the UK by 1.4% next year.

Responding to the forecast, Chancellor Rachel Reivz said she showed that the UK is still the fastest developing European G7 country due to “reforms that will increase long-term growth in the UK.”

Reivz added that the “world has changed”, and this week it will be in Washington, “defending British interests and creating a business for free and fair trade.”

However, Mel Stray, the Conservative Chancellor of Shadows, said the IMF’s forecast was “an alarming charge of an economic approach.”

“The IMF downgraded the UK growth forecast, causing serious concern about distrust and the direction under childbirth. They also significantly revised their inflation forecast,” he said.

The IMF World Economic Forecast also contains the following predictions:

• The prediction of the eurozone growth for this year is trimmed up to 0.8% of 1%. Then it has to grow by 1.2% in 2026, which help higher state expenses in Germany
• Spain is the only advanced economy that saw that the growth forecast in 2025 is up to 2.5% with 2.3%. This is partly due to the reconstruction after the flood
• Canada’s growth forecast for this year is reduced to 1.4% with 2%, which reflects the tariff uncertainty and “geopolitical tension”
• Mexico sees the biggest decrease. The contract is now 0.3% this year compared to the January forecast of 1.4%.

Forecasts are never ideal, given the many factors that affect economic growth, and the IMF acknowledged that its recent forecasts were particularly difficult.

Data figures are what the IMF calls its “certificate”, depending on the situation on April 4, which took place two days after Trump’s announcement of wide tariffs.

Mr. Gurin said that while forecasting was the central scenario of the IMF, “there are many possible ways, which reflects the unpredictability related to the future trade policy and the diverse effects of tariffs in different countries.”

The IMF also considered the situation after the US temporarily suspended a lot of tariffs, simultaneously raising those in China.

Mr. Gurin said that the pause did not “significantly” changed the global forecast from its reference forecast, since the overall effective tariff rate of the United States and China remains high and the uncertainty in politics continues.