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The US dollar grew at the beginning of trading on Monday, taking advantage of its traditional security status after US military strikes on Iran-al-analytics warn that profit may be short-lived.
At one point the dollar index grew by 0.45%, indicating the profit from such currencies as Japanese yen. Euro and British poundas also Canadian. Australian and New Zealand Dollars. The last time it was noticed that at 9.30am at 9.30am.
“The escalation of the crisis in the Middle East after the US attacks in Iran over the weekend is expected to lead to some traditional effects of a safe shelter in the market (for example), since the price of oil is increasing, decreased capital prices and a stronger dollar,” said Kundbi-Nielsen, fixed income and research.
Despite the initial action, the increasing consensus among investment banks suggests that the dollar force may be temporary.
Some analysts say the conflict in the Middle East simply masks the concern in the financial policy of the United States, trade wars and weakening international demand for US assets, which are likely to take attention when the direct crisis demand disappears. This year, the dollar index decreased by more than 8%, reflecting long -term concern.
Immediate US dollar power is related to the fears of how Iran can avenge and with The closure of the Strait of the Highuz – Water path, vital for oil transit – at the top of these problems.
However, RBC Capital Markets Analysts have warned that the situation is more difficult, noting that Iran has asymmetrical opportunities for “strike on individual tankers and key ports”.
“So, we do not believe that this is a” complete closure “or” nothing “scenario when it comes to the waterway, and Iran can launch its asymmetrical opportunities for raising economic costs for joint operations of the United States/Israel,” said Halima Croft, a former CIA analyst, in the customer recording.
Jordan Rochester, the head of the FICC strategy for the EMEA region in Mizukho, also expressed some optimism when it came to the closure of Hormuz Strait.
“This is a bold call, but I doubt that the Hormuz Strait is blocked, and we avoid the oil level of 100-130 hours, which is advertised for sale with Iranian allies such as China, it may put pressure to continue oil flows,” he said in the morning note on Monday. “The United States also probably made the energy infrastructure of the red line attached to Israel’s support.”
However, the key indicator of security is safety- the US Treasury Market – It seems that he tells a completely different story through an unusually muted reaction.
The global crisis usually sends investors flocking to US state debt, but Kundbi-Nielsen Danske Bank said “the impact on the US treasurers is a little more uncertain, given the significant trade deficit and tariffs combined with the potential increase in the supply of treasures.”
The global trading war makes these financial problems.
With the approach of July 9, until the gathering of the run, the US threatens the tariff up to 50% of the majority of imports from the European Union.
“AS FAR AS The USD Goes, We’d Suspect That The USD Would Sinking Lower If It Weren’t For The War, Largely Because The News Persining To Us Imps is not Particular Good, And BeCause Data Fram. While weak, does not point to further deterioration to the us, “Said Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry, Macquarie’s Currency and Rates Strategists, in a June 20 notes
FX strategists from the Bank of America also point out that investors are largely relying on the US dollar, which adds impetus to any step down the currency.
According to a poll by the head of the BOFA Global Fund, published on June 16, the fund heads are currently considering a short-term dollar as the third-in-law trading was conducted earlier before US participation in the Middle East.
