The decision on the interest rate of the European Central Bank, September 2025.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank conducted interest rates because economic uncertainty is maintained as a result of US aggressive tariff program Donald Trump.

On the eve of the markets, prices were about 99% likely that the ECB’s main level of deposit remained 2% in the second time. Latest Central Bank rates in June, reducing rates from last year’s recording tall with 4%.

“Currently, inflation is about 2% of the medium-term target, and the evaluation of the inflation council as a whole does not change,” the ECB said.

The Central Bank added that it would follow an approach that depends on the meetings and will not be pre -taken to a particular interest rate. The ECB suggested little guidance on the future direction on tariffs.

ECB is fighting global economic uncertainty despite inflation in the euro area hover In recent months about 2% of the Central Bank’s target and the EU Infection of the trade agreement from the US

Transatlantic partners agreed Up to 15% of EU export tariffs in the US in July, as well as additional details about the frames that occur last month. It discussed some issues for key European sectors such as pharmaceuticals.

However, Questions remain Because some issues – such as the provisions for the wine and spirits sector remain open. Concerns about further tariffs also grew after Trump’s threat from revenge in the EU after he got AlphabetGoogle with Google with 3.45 billion dollars Antimonopoly fine.

Fears of the influence of tariffs on economic growth will remain. Growth in the euro area remained sluggish, even when the rates declined, with the latest last images showing only 0.1% growth in the second quarter after expanding 0.6% in the previous period.

On Thursday, Lagarda noted that “the risks of economic growth became more balanced.”

“While the latest trade agreements have reduced uncertainty, the updated deterioration of trade relations can reduce exports and reduce investment and consumption,” she said. Lagarda also noted that “the inflation forecast remains more uncertain than usual, as a result, the trade policy remains.”

In response to the question of Annette Weisbach CNBC, the logard added that the uncertainty of trade was “clearly decreased” because the risks like European policy towards the United States decreased. But, according to Lagard, the uncertainty did not return to the “normal”, the previous level, adding that “perhaps there will be no normal level”.

Economists and analysts were divided into whether the speed of speed awaiting forward should be expected.

Based on economic expectations, the Central Bank “is in no hurry to reduce the rates,” said Thomas Pu, the chief economist of the RSM consulting firm.

But, he noted, “15% of the EU export tariff in the US, along with increased uncertainty, weighs the door potentially open to further reduce the rate at the end of the year.”

“The combination of the hit for investment and export, a stronger euro, as well as cheaper imports from China, can mitigate growth and inflation enough to guarantee another rate at the end of this year,” Piu in the note.

Elsewhere, Irene Lavra, Eurozone economist in Schroders, said the reports on Thursday “confirm our opinion that the weakening cycle is over”.

Lavra sees that the trade is uncertain, and the economic recovery zone is when companies become less careful and the labor markets continue to be tough.

“The risks have moved to the eurozone from the uncertainty of trade to political instability, and France is now in financial attention. But the sustainability of the economy and the strengthening of domestic demand means that the ECB can afford to keep the monetary policy of unchanged,” she said.

As the decision on the interest rate is widely expected, the attention of Thursday was focused on the press conference of Lagarda and the latest inflation forecasts and economic growth. The Central Bank last updated its economic forecasts in June.

“The new ECB officers are presenting a picture of inflation, similar to the projected in June. They see the headlines inflation on average 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027,” the Central Bank said.

In June this year inflation averaged 2%, 1.6% next year and 2% in 2027.

It is expected that the so -called basic inflation, which deprives food and energy costs, average 2.4%on average, unchanged.

Looking at economic growth, the ECB stated that “presumably the economy would grow by 1.2% in 2025, revised from 0.9% expected in June.”

The forecast for 2026 was cut up to 1% growth.