The Chinese Trade War deficit gets into the shelf in the stages

Warnings about the blank store shelves were in headlines because several press reports indicate this The heads of the main retail shops of America told President Trump that a long trade war will lack.

If this can become a reality and which products would be the first?

Finance Minister Scott Severse Recently described A trade war with China as “impossible”.

Already a decrease in production orders from China and falls in Chinese reservation and swimming in the US, the national supply network is provided closer to the turning point. But when the supply chain reaches the return point when the orders are currently stopped to overcome to make the trading network supply replenished?

Clothing and shoes are one of the key consumer products. In 2024, imports from China accounts for about 37% of all US clothing imports and approximately 58% of all US shoe imports.

“These extremely high new tariff rates act as a ban on imports,” said Steve Lamar, president of the American Association and Shoes.

According to AAFA, in 2024, the average tariff rate for importing clothing and shoes from China was about 18.5%, but for many it is much higher than the additional duties. “If you add 145%to this, you get an average figure exceeding 160%, but in some cases the actual tariff exceeds 200%,” Lamar said.

Since such a large part of the clothing and shoes comes from China, the date of entry into force of the tariff has given the company little opportunity to move. “They will soon be transferred to the product deficit if the orders are canceled or the goods are kept until a trade transaction can be developed,” Lamar said.

Companies are waiting for many consequences from Growth prices to consumers alertnessand orders for the subjects of a large ticket shock About waiting for a shock sticker. Recent data on US supplies illustrate measures to mitigate the consequences that companies are unfolding to manage a fragile supply balance. According to Sonar, the rollback in Chinese imports was seen in recent Walmart, Ikea and target orders.

Reduced visits to Chinese freight ship to us

But the risk of retail deficit will largely depend on how much the “unstable” tariff level lasts and to what extent the company Overloaded inventory In the first months of 2025 based on Trump threats. A Recently stated the Minister of Government of China“Currently absolutely no negotiations on economics and trade between China and the USA”

If tariffs are indeed below and are considered more managed for absorption, production orders can restore and sending can begin again. But when high tariffs continue, the expectations that the US consumer will face a more persistent deficiency, especially since Chinese suppliers focus on other markets. If this happens, the US supply network will have to compete for production capacity.

The next few months will provide important information about the supply chain, said Michael Solarna, Vice President of the FNBO International Bank Business (First National Bank), the client base of which is small and medium-sized.

“We look at Port Container volumes in mid-May, June and July,” said Solarna. “We will look at the volume of containers and how long it will sit there. It’s early to say now.”

New Maritime intelligence data shows that continued sail as a result of the screeching, which stops the orders of ocean cargo.

“Many of these blank swimming were announced with a very limited pre-warning warning,” said Alan Murphy, CEO of Maritime Intelligence.

The canceled sails, which took place for the first time on the West Coast of Asia-Northern America, are now rising on the routes from Asia to the Parts of the East Coast.

“For the Asia-Northern Eastern Coast, there is now a major spike in blank swimming during the week, starting on May 5, which is quite extreme,” Murphy said.

In recent weeks covering the end of April and early May, the carriers planned checkers of the vessels, which made up 35% -42% of the planned power.

Low profitability and fast moving goods disappear first

Experts on the supply chain say that lower class stores will be severely affected by tariffs for inexpensive imports, and if they work on inventory, it will be noticed much faster.

“The connected retail system is built at speed and scale,” said Casey Armstrong, CMO Shipbo, Global Platform for Execution and Supply Chain. “If this engine stutters, it will not be from tariffs, customs delays, or search restrictions, which is the lowest that’s moving goods that disappear in the first place.”

Armstrong warned that the first signs of empty shelves will be shown, where in addition to clothing, price imports like toys, games and budget goods are dominated. “It’s a Canary in a coal mine with a broken supply chain,” he said.

Armstrong believes that toys and seasonal baby products, including subjects to school, will disappear first because of the shortened lead time and the terms of tariffs.

Fast fashion and clothes follow – basics, tees, leggings, socks and clothing for children. “There is often a rapid turnover on clothing, and thin boundaries of the middle level of the low buffer,” Armstrong said.

According to Armstrong, their components are often limited at home and stock electronics, their components are often not “final collected”, their components are often, Armstrong reports. “In addition, many products are often updated (phones, headphones, etc.). Some Amazon sellers and big side shops may have gaps in cheaper electronics and accessories,” he said.

But even as the overall orders and swimming from China decrease, this is not direct to a sharp decrease in the activity of each retail. Recently Home Depot has increased orders in the US from Chinese suppliers, Genius reports.

Big retail inventory – not the only showcases that may feel pain in the inventory DropShippers (businesses or people who work on online shops without keeping inventory) and those who rests on De minimis taxation from China Also affected, starting on May 2, when this trading gap is closed.

Jonathan Gold, Vice President of the Supply Chain and Customs Policy for the National Retaire Federation, said in accordance with his latest last Global Port Tracker The report, the measures to mitigate the consequences, such as the front loading of goods, led to the increase in the level of imports, so more inventory ahead of the tariffs, but it warned that the report also showed that the volumes of cargo were significantly reduced from the canceled or delayed orders from the tariffs.

Gold warned that at least consumers should be prepared for a smaller inventory and less choice, as well as increasing prices, especially in small retailers.

“In the coming months, the effects are likely to become sensitive, as the supplies subject to higher tariffs begin to arrive and wade through retail inventory,” Gold said. “Uncertainty around tariffs is a difficult task for businesses, especially for small businesses that are currently being prepared for critical orders for winter holidays.”