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BitcoinThe “historical” cycle shows the signs that this may be broken as a change in investor profile and supports regulators that redo market dynamics.
If this often predictable picture is broken, it would have significant consequences for how investors evaluate cryptocurrency price activities and potential terms when investing in bitcoin.
“This is not officially over until we see a positive profit in 2026. But I think we will, say this: I think the 4-year cycle is over,” said CNBC Matthew Hogan, Chief Investment Management.
What is Bitcoin cycle?
In general, the bitcoin cycle refers to a four -year price movement that revolves around a key event known as a half -rewarded hornburg, which is written in the Bitcoin code.
Twice happens every four years, with the last Takes place in April 2024. And the one that was before, in May 2020.
If it is doubled, rewards in the form of bitcoin given the so -called “miners” – Subjects that support the functioning of the Bitcoin network – cut in half. This reduces bitcoin supply to the market. Thus, there is only 21 million bitcoin.
Usually, Bitcoin rallied in the month after half to reach the fresh maximum. Then Bitcoin will break up by reducing approximately 70% to 80% of the peak that led to The start of “Crypto -Zima”, A long period of depressive prices for digital coins. The cost of other crystals will also fall sharply during this period. Then Bitcoin will trade within the range for a while, and, as it approaches the next half, it usually assesses its price. Then the cycle is repeated.
Bitcoin’s price usually moved to 4-year cycles.
What happened to the Bitcoin cycle?
Was an unprecedented market reaction around the latter twice when Bitcoin struck fresh All the time high More than $ 73,000 in March 2024, approximately a month before half and not reached the new heights after the famous event was expected.
“In each previous cycle, new highs came over the whole time 12-18 months after the attack,” said CNBC Saksham Diwan, Coindesk Data Research Analyst.
The main factor was Approval in the US Bitcoin Exchange Funds (ETFs) Which started trade in January 2024. ETFs track the price movement Bitcoin, without the investor, actually had to own the crystal.
A great tributary in ETFs, and hope that it can bring more Traditional institutional investors Which remained away from the cry, helped increase the price of Bitcoin.
“This time, to notice the demand of Bitcoin ETF, in fact, in the front of the typical prices after the gland. This was really the first obvious sign that institutional flows could change the traditional dynamics of the cycle,” Divan said.
What factors helped change the bitcoin cycle?
ETF was the first major factor to break the four -year Bitcoin rhythm. He brought investors with deep pockets who were interested in cryptocurrency for a longer term.
But a number of other market factors have changed.
Hougan Hougan Bitwise Asset indicates the “blast in the cry”, which often preceded the crystal. He referred to Accident so -called initial coin sentences (ICO) in 2018 and Collapse krypto -exchange ftx in 2022.
Meanwhile, the macroeconomic environment and regulation are becoming more favorable.
“Interest rates are likely to decline than next year, and the fact that the regulators and legislators are now ready to interact with the cry, and not stablely abandon it, dramatically reduce the risk of future explosions,” Hogan said.
Gary Hensler, a former leader of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, hacked the sector and opened a number of cases against the crystals. Those in the field said they were Being unfairly focused. According to the current US President Donald Trump, SEC has have abandoned some cases against the crypto -firm. Washington looked to submit New laws around the cry and even launched Bitcoin’s strategic reserve.
Meanwhile, State -owned companies accumulate cryptocurrenciesEspecially Bitcoin as part of a new strategy.
“As the market maturity increases, the long-term accumulation of owners at all times and reduced volatility, the traditional 4-year rhythm is replaced more sensitive to liquidity, macro-correlated behavior,” said CNBC Ryan Chow, co-founder of Solv Protocol.
Where are we in the cycle now?
One of the key points is that the historically the most significant price for bitcoin occurred between 500 and 720 after a fracture, Diwan reports with Coindesk Data. Bitcoin reached the maximum during this window in cycles 2016 and 2020, the rug noted.
“If this picture was repeated, then it should be observed at the potential acceleration between the Q3 2025 and the early quarter of 2026,” Divan said, adding that “price actions (B) this cycle was noticeable compared to the previous periods after the gland.”
Hougan by Management Asset Asset said the four -year cycle is over, but in order for it to be dead, Bitcoin must have a good 2026 that, as it expects it will happen.
“I do not think we have canceled volatility, but I think a) forces that have historically created a four-year cycle, weaker than they were in the past, and b) there are other very strong forces that move on another term, which I think to overcome our four-year tendency,” Hogan said.
The last Bitcoin record was reached on July 14 as it pushed above $ 123,000.
Are 80% of the past crashes?
One of the excellent features of the previous cycles is that Bitcoin will immerse up about 70% to 80% of record high after twice.
Crypto Industry insiders said CNBC that this would no longer happen, given the reasons they laid out to support the changing four -year cycle.
“We believe that the era of hard 70-80% of the final conclusions are behind us,” said Chow Solv Protocol.
He noted that the largest correction of this cycle was about 26% on the final basis compared to about 84% after 2017 and 77% after 2021.
Chow said the long-term Bitcoin owners and “stable institutional tributaries contribute to greater absorption, he added that in the reaction to macro shops or regulatory surprises, they may be smaller and less than in previous cycles.”
Hugan also said that the fall 30% to 50% are possible, but: “I will argue that 70% of appeals are the past.”
