The ban le Pen was outraged by the extreme right France

Outrage is a valuable political currency, and the extreme right -wing France conducted this week, trying fiercely and predictably to take advantage of the perceived injustice of the court to block its totemic leader, Marin Le Pen, standing in the 2027 presidential election.

Essential waves throbbing with indignation.

“Be indignant,” said one of the key MPs on French television, if anyone doubted what their reaction should be.

But it remains unclear whether the tough verdict will expand the support of her party, the national action (RN), or will lead to greater fragmentation of the French extreme right. In any case, this has created a feverish mood among the nation’s politicians.

Le Pen and her allies boldly stated that the institutions of France and the democracy itself were “shot”, “dead” or “violated”. The country’s justice system has turned into a “political” hit, staggering in the right of the nation to choose their own leaders. And Marin Le Pen is widely reflected with something close to certainty, as the President of France, who expects as the most popular politician of the country, severely lost her almost inevitable procession towards the Ellis Palace.

“The system has released a nuclear bomb, and when it uses such a powerful weapon against us, it is obviously because we are going to win the election,” Le Peng nominated at the press conference, comparing himself to the poisoned, jailed, and now the dead politician of the opposition politician Alexei.

As France evaluates its latest political jolts, uneven discard began.

Nervous influence, which may have a decision on the indentation in the country, Prime Minister François Bayru admitted that he felt “anxious” sentence and worried about “shock” for public opinion.

But other central politicians have accepted a firm line, emphasizing the need for a clear break between the justice and policy system.

In an early poll, it seems that the French public is taking a quiet line, breaking – or at least destroying – a pH indignation bubble. The poll, made within a few hours after the court ruling, showed less than a third of the country – 31% felt that the decision to block Le Pen immediately, from the struggle to public positions was unfair.

Especially, this figure was less than 37% of French people who recently expressed interest in voting for it as president.

In other words, many people who love her as politics also consider her crimes to get rid of her position.

And remember that the French presidential election is two more years – eternity in the current political climate.

Emmanuel Macron has no right to act for another period and is not a clear alternative to Le Pen, on the left or the French policy center, has not yet appeared. The share of voting, Le Pena invariably increased during the previous three unsuccessful applications for higher work, but at best to consider it prematurely for 2027.

Anyone who followed the case against her and her colleagues in the party impartially will fight to conclude that the sentences in the foam case were unfounded.

The testimony of a massive and coordinated project for fraud and related taxpayers included jaw jaws that expose emails that suggest that officials know exactly what they are doing, and the illegality of their actions.

What corruption was for the party, not for personal benefits, of course, nothing changes. Corruption is corruption. In addition, other parties were also found guilty of similar offenses.

As for the punishments made by the court, it seems fair to say that Le Pen and her party made a strategic mistake in their approach to the case.

If they recognized the facts and their mistakes and cooperated in the facilitating a quick trial, not helping to pull the trial for almost decades, the judges – as they had already understood – could take their attitude to the case when considering punishments.

“Neither during the investigation nor the court (Le Pen) showed any awareness of the need for the elected official, nor the following duties,” the judges wrote in a document that explains often outrageously why they were such a tough sentence.

They unfolded Le Pen for seeking to detain or avoid justice through a defense system that ignores the disclosure of truth. “

It is worth noting that there is wider hypocrisy here, demonstrated by the elites in the political spectrum of France, which recently mumbled sympathy for Le Pen. Nine years have passed since the deputies voted to strengthen corruption laws, presenting the most sanction – because they immediately banned criminals in public positions – who were used by judges in the case.

Such cruelty was accepted by the public as an antidote to the judiciary, which stops by condescending culture of consistent appeals that allow – and sometimes allow – politicians to evade responsibility for decades.

Now her critics on the Internet have happily mocked with many past cases when she called for more stringent corruption laws.

“When we are going to learn lessons and effectively bring a lifetime uncertainty for those who have been convicted of actions committed in office or during their positions?” she asked in 2013.

Smart people can reasonably disagree on the decision to sentence the court in the case of Le Pena. But the concept with admiration was approved by populist and violent politicians across Europe and the US-what it is the victim of a conspirating political plot, clearly did not convince the majority of French people.

At least not yet.

So where does this verdict, obviously the seismic moment in French policy-kicks a national action and a wider right movement?

The short answer is that no one knows. There are so many variables of the fate of the rapid appeal of Le Pen, to the strategy of continuity of the pH, to the state of non-standard finances of France, to a broader political climate and to appetite for popp to populate both in France and in the global level, it is even more questionable game than usual.

The most direct question is, given the slow pace of the legal complaint, which Le Pen promised to initiate – whether the pH would seek prompt revenge in the parliament, trying to knock down the foul government of the François Coalition.

This can lead to new parliamentary elections this summer and the possibility that the pH can take advantage of the victim status to increase its advantage in the parliament and may even push the country to a deadlock in which President Macron can – another “can” feel.

One person who will now face additional control is practically, but not quite anointed with a successor, 29-year-old Jordan Bardel, who can be called as a replacement for presidential candidate if his own “narrow path” remains blocked when addressing.

If the popularity of the brothel among the French youth is a sign of his prospects, he could come up with victory in 2027. He found a way to take advantage of the frustrations of people who have been angry with the falling standards and concern for immigration.

But the transformation of youth support into actual voices is not always simple, but other, more experienced and basic figures can also feel the opportunity.

The Interior Minister Bruno Retalo is widely regarded as a potential contender. Some even wonder if a provocative television person Cyril Khanun may become a serious political force on French politics.

Meanwhile, the brothel, as well as the pH, in general, is engaged in a very disciplined party on the detoxification of the party, once openly opened a racist and anti -Semitic brand. For example, in February, he refused plans to perform on the far right America after former Donald Trump’s former advisor Steve Benan made a Nazi salute.

But the events of this week have shown that the pH was delighted to clearly Trump-Yin and the populist accusation strategy in the “swamp” unleashed officials. Meanwhile, the brothel complained about the recent closure of the two right-wing media channels, as well as his own legal struggle of his party.

“Today, there is an extremely serious drift that does not reflect the idea we have in French democracy,” he said.

This is the language that goes well with the main district of RN, but its broader attractiveness can be limited in a country that remains largely tied to its institutions.

To create it in another way, will the French voters be more motivated by the belief that Le Pen was unfairly punished or concerned that the judges were victims of death threats and other icons?

As for Marin Le Pen, she promised that she would not be outdated. But her fate is not quite in her hands now. At the age of 56, she sometimes became a familiar figure, and fiery, but personally accessible, warm and political terms, deeply influential and disciplined. So what’s next for her?

France has had one le-pene or other (Maritime Corps, Jean-Marie has run four times) on his presidential newsletter since 1988. Always unsuccessful.

History may well look back this week when the fate of the Maritime Le-Pen was sealed in one of three ways: as the first woman of France and the first far-right president, she swept into power to the rush of indignation. As a four -time lost to the French presidential election, he finally abandoned the government. Or as a person whose rising political career was early and shuddered at her own miscalculations about a serious theft scandal.

BBC Indepth is home to the site and application for better analysis, with fresh prospects that dispute assumptions and a deep report on the biggest issues of the day. And we demonstrate the contents that cause reasoning, from different BBC sounds, and iPlayer too. You can send us your reviews in the Indepth section by clicking the button below.