That’s why Jamie Dimon is so gloomy in the economy

The more Jamie Dimon The wave, the better, seems to be his bank.

As Jpmorgan chase In recent years, its stellar CEO has grown more, more profitable and more important for the US economy, its stellar CEO has become more voice about what can go wrong – everything continues to go properly for him.

In the best of times and in the worst times, the public prognosis of the smoke is gloomy.

Be it his forecast 2022 “Hurricane“Impressing the US economy, its concern about the world order after the Great Patriotic War or its caution The fact that America gets into one or two recession and inflation, Dimon seems to be pushed by every income report, the appearance of TV and investors with another terrible warning.

“Its leading bank’s results are incredible,” said Ben macaqueMember of the Board of Four Banks and Investors through his firm strategic value. “Its results recorded not so good.”

For two decades running JPMorgan, 69 -year -old Dimon helped create a financial institution unlike any world.

A scattered giant both in the banking on the main street and in the Wall Street High Finance, the Dimon Bank, according to its words, the final game winner When it comes to money. It has more affiliates, deposits and users on the Internet than any peers and is a leading credit card and a small business franchise. It has the main share of the market both in trade and investment banks, and more than 10 trillion dollars moves on its world payments daily.

Review 20 Years Annual Dimon Investor letter And his public statements show a clear evolution. He became the CEO in 2006, and his first decade at the JPMorgan’s steering wheel was consumed by an American housing bubble, a financial crisis of 2008 and its long consequences, including the acquisition of two unsuccessful competitors, Bear Sturns And Washington is mutual.

As long as he started his second decade, the leading JPMorgan, as soon as the legal hangover with a mortgage crisis began to fade, the smoke began to see new storm clouds on the horizon.

“There will be another crisis,” he wrote at his CEO on April 2015 letterReflecting on potential triggers and noting that the last Gyrations in the US debt is a “warning shot” for markets.

This passage noted the beginning of more frequent financial warnings from the smoke, including the concerns of the recession – which did not happen until the 2020 pandem a two -month reduction – as well as problems around market crises and deficit in the US.

But it also noted the decade in which JPMorgan’s speech began to clap opponents. After aligning approximately $ 20 billion in annual profit for several years, the wide car, which Dimon overseen, began to truly reach its step.

JPMORGAN has brought six record annual income from 2015 to 2024, twice as much as the first decade of Dimon as CEO. JPMorgan is the world’s most valuable financial firm that trades and issues $ 18 billion annually on technology, including Artificial intelligenceto stay in this way.

While Dimon seems to be forever concerned about the economy and growth of geopolitical upheavals, the US economy continues to grab. This means that unemployment and consumer expenses were more elastic than expected, allowing JPMorgan to derive record income.

In 2022, Dimon told the number of professional investors to prepare for the economic storm: “Now it’s sunny, everything is in order, everyone believes that the Fed can handle it,” said Dimon, citing the federal reserve system that manages the post-pandemic economy.

“What Hurricane So, there, on the way, walking down the way, ”he said.

“It may be the most dangerous time that the world has seen in decades,” said Dimon next year’s earnings exemption.

But investors who listened to the smoke and made their portfolios more conservative would miss the best two -year mileage for S&P 500 In decades.

According to the former President of the top five financial institute, bankers know that wiser translate caution than optimism. Former Citigroup Eg Get up and dance“

“It is worth finding out that your reputation has a much more disadvantage if you are too optimistic, and everything is wrong,” said this former executive director who asked to stay unknown to the smoke. “It harms your bank, and you look like -hum, and on the contrary, you just look like you are very careful, thoughtful banker.”

Ultimately, a banking business is a calculated risk, and its management must be set up to the possibility that they do not reproach their loans, said bank analyst Mike mine from Wells Fargo.

“It’s an old cliché that a good banker carries an umbrella when the sun is shining; they always look around the corner, always realizing that it can go wrong,” mine said.

But other long -standing chimney observers see something else.

According to Portales Partners analyst Charles Piboda.

“I think this rhetoric is to keep its management team -oriented risks, or not,” the pybodi said. “With a high -performance franchise with high growth, he tries to prevent them from becoming complacent, so I think he rooted into his culture atmosphere of a permanent war.”

Dimon has no shortage to worry about, despite the fact that last year its bank brought a record $ 58.5 billion. Conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza fierce Donald TrumpTrade policy continues to overcome opponents and allies.

In fact, the cemetery of bank logos that are no longer used First republic – which were divided by JPMorgan.

During his bank Meeting on Investor Day This month, Dimon noted that in the last decade, JPMorgan has been one of the only firms that earn annual profitability by more than 17%.

“If you come back up to 10 years before, well, a lot of people earned over 17%,” – a smimon – Note. “Almost every one of them went bankrupt. Hear what I just said?

“Almost every major financial company in the world has hardly done it,” he said. “It’s a rough world there.”