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BBC’s security correspondent
Iran fiercely responded to the US Air Forces at three of its nuclear sites, promising what it calls “eternal consequences”.
But by words, feverish discussions in Iran will take place at the highest level.
Should they escape the conflict through revenge against the US interests, or as their US President Donald Trump called, to agree that in practice means to abandon all nuclear enrichment within Iran?
This internal discussion will take place at a time when many senior Iranian commanders will look at their shoulders, wondering whether they will be the next goal of Israeli, or anyone in the room has already betrayed them with an overseas spy agency Israel.
Overall, there are three different strategic action courses that are now open to Iran. None of them are risking, and the uppermost in the minds of those who make decisions will be the survival of the Islamic Republic.
Many will launch blood. Iran was humiliated, first, Israel, now what was often called “Greater Satan”, its term for the United States.
Iran’s constant exchange with Israel continues its tenth day, but revenge for the United States brings a whole new risk level not only for Iran but for the whole region.
It is believed that Iran retains about half of its original stock of about 3,000 missiles, using and losing the rest in the Fire Exchange with Israel.
Iran has a target list of about 20 US bases to choose from the West Middle East.
One of the closest and most obvious is the wide headquarters of the Fifth Fleet of the Mighty Military Fleet in Salman’s mine in Bahrain. But Iran can be reluctant to hit the neighboring Arab state of the Persian Gulf. It may be likely to use their trustees in Iraq and Syria to attack any of the relatively isolated US bases in AT-Tanf, Ain Al-Asad or Erbil. Iran has a form here.
When Trump has ordered the Iran QuDS Qassim Suleimani leader in 2020, Iran responded, focusing on US servicemen in Iraq, but avoid murder, giving the previous message. This may not do this this time.
Iran can also launch “attacks on Roy” on US military ships, using drones and fast torpedo boats, which has been exhausting over the years for years.
The purpose, if he went down this way, would be overcome by the US military -maritime defense through a large amount. He can also ask for his allies in Yemen, geese, restore his attacks on Western delivery that runs between the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea.
There are also economic goals that Iran can strike, but it will confront its Arabian Gulf neighbors, which have recently reached the difficult modus Vivendi with the Islamic Republic.
The biggest and most devastating goal here would be the breath of the vital Hormuz strait, through which more than 20 percent of the global oil reserves go daily. Iran could do this by sowing sea mines, creating a deadly danger for both the Military and Marsh and commercial delivery.
Then there is cyber. Iran, along with North Korea, Russia and China, has a complex offensive cyber. Undoubtedly, the introduction of devastating malware into US networks or businesses is undoubtedly considered one of the options.
This will mean the expectation until the current tension subsides and started an unexpected attack during Iran’s choice, if the US bases were no longer the war as possible.
Such an attack can also aim for US diplomatic, consular or trade missions or extend to killing people. It is known that the risk to Iran is that it is likely to cause updated US attacks, just like ordinary Iranians return to normal.
It will take huge restraint from Iran, but it would save it from further attacks in the United States. This can even choose a diplomatic route and return to negotiations from the US, although Iran’s foreign minister noted that Iran never left these negotiations, which, he said, Israel and the US.
But restarting the US and Iran talks in Muscat, Rome or anywhere, it would be necessary to do only if Iran is ready to accept the red line, which both the US and Israel insist. Namely, in order for Iran to retain its civic nuclear program, it must send everything uranium outside the country for enrichment.
Nothing after taking such a beating also makes the Iranian regime weak, especially after all its warnings about the terrible consequences when the US has attacked. After all, it may decide that the risk of weakening its contribution to the population exceeds the cost of any further attacks in the US.