Tariffs can take much less than the White House projects, say economists

President Donald Trump talks about it tariffs will make the US ”rich“But these riches are likely to be much less than the White House expects, economists said.

The final amount may have great consequences for the US economy, the country’s debt and legislative negotiations on the package package, economists said.

The White House Trade Advisor, Peter Navaro, is estimated to arrive at about $ 600 billion a year and $ 6 trillion in ten years. Auto for tariffs would have added another 100 billion dollars a year, he said On “Fox News Sunday”.

Navaro made projection as a US plans to announce Wednesday more tariffs against US trading partners.

Economists expect the Trump administration’s tariff policy to bring much less income than Navarre claims. Some projects will be less than half the total income.

Approximately $ 600 billion to $ 700 billion a year, “not even in the field of opportunity,” said Mark Zandy, Moody’s Chief Economist. “If you get up to $ 100 billion to $ 200 billion, you will be lucky.”

The White House refused to respond to the CNBC comment request for tariffs.

White House considered 20% tariff on most imports Reported about the Washington Post On Tuesday. President Trump sailing This idea is on the company’s way. The Trump administration may eventually choose another policy, such as tariffs for the country based on the relevant trade and barriers of each country.

But the 20% tariff rate seems to meet Navarro’s income forecasts, economists said.

US import About 3.3 trillion in 2024. The application of a 20% tariff rate for all this import will be given by about $ 660 billion.

“It is almost certain that Peter Navarre’s mental mathematics are engaged in this mental mathematics,” said Ernie Tedeska, director of economics in the Yale budget laboratory and a former chief economist of the White House Economic Advisers during the Baden administration.

All because the exact assessment of income should take into account many economic consequences of tariffs in the US and worldwide, economists said. They said these effects are combined to reduce profits.

According to Tedeschyna, a wide tariff for a wide tariff will remove about $ 250 billion a year (or 2.5 trillion), citing analysis Posted on Monday.

There are ways to attract large sums – but they will have higher tariff rates, economists said. For example, 50% on the tariff board would raise about $ 780 billion a year, In the hall Economist at the Institute of International Economy Peterson.

Even this is an optimistic assessment: it does not take into account the decrease in economic growth in the US because of revenge or negative effects of growth of the tariffs themselves, they write.

Tariffs at all increase prices for consumers. A wide tariff by 20% will cost an average consumer from $ 3400 to $ 4,200 a year, according to the Yale budget laboratory.

Consumers, of course, buy less imported goods when they are more expensive, economists said. According to them, lower demand means lower imports and lower tariff profit from this import.

Tariffs are also expected to cause “decreased economic activity”,-said Robert McClalland, senior employee of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

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For example, US companies that do not transmit consumer cost tariffs with higher prices can see profits (and their income tax), economists said. Consumers can return to expenses, further income and tax revenues, economists said. Companies accepting the financial blow can cancel the workers, they said.

Foreign countries are expected to avenge their own tariffs for US products that will damage companies that export products abroad. Other countries may experience an economic downturn, which further reduces the demand for US products.

“If you get a 20% tariff rate, you are going to get a recession that will break, and it will undermine your financial situation,” Zandy said.

Economists have stated that there would also be a certain level of failure to comply with the tariff policy, as well as to resolve for some countries, industries and products. For example, if in February the White House charged tariffs on China, this endlessly released Import “De Minimis” worth $ 800 and less.

The Trump administration may also bring some tariff income to the payment of some parties affected by the trade war, economists said.

President Trump did this in his first term: the government has allocated $ 61 billion in “help” payments to US farmers who have faced foam tariffs, which was almost all (92%) revenues from Chinese goods from 2018 to 2020, In the hall Foreign Relations Council.

Tariffs will also probably have a short life, spreading their potential impact on income, economists said. They are issued by the executive order and can be easily repealed, regardless of whether President Trump or the future president, they said.

“There is a zero probability that these tariffs will last 10 years,” Zandy said. “If they serve until next year, I would be very surprised.”

Expanding the law on tax reduction for 2017, signed by President Trump, will cost 4.5 trillion in ten years, In the hall into the tax fund. Trump has also called for other tax benefits, such as tips, payment of overtime or social security assistance, as well as tax payments for automotive loans for US cars.

If the tariffs do not cover the full cost of such a package, then the republican lawmakers should find cuts elsewhere or increase the country’s debt, economists said.