Sudan threatens self -destruction as a ruling conflict and hunger

Sudan’s war is in a strategic pathetic situation. Each party offers its hopes for a new offensive, new weapons delivery, a new political union, but none of them can have a decisive advantage.

Losing the Sudanese people. Each month there is more who is hungry, moved, despairing.

Sudan’s armed forces triumphantly announced the restoration of Central Khartum in March.

He broadcasted his leader’s photos, General Abdel Fatah al-Burhan while passing through Ruins of the Republican Palace of the capitalControlled by the Paramiliars of Fast Support Forces (RSF), since the earliest days of the war in April 2023.

The army launched weapons purchased in Egypt, Turkey and other Middle East countries, including Qatar and Iran. But his offensive quickly stopped.

RSF led by General Mohammed Hamdan, known as “HEMEDI”, replied the devastating attack of drones on the port -barture, which is the temporary capital of the military government, as well as the main point of entry into humanitarian aid.

These were perennial drones that the army accused the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of the UAE accusation, and well-documented reports that it supports RSF during a 27-month conflict.

RSF also expanded the South Operations.

Hemedti concluded a deal with Abdel Aziz al-Hill, commander of the veteran’s veteran’s veteran’s liberation rebel, which controls Nuba mountains near the border with South Sudan.

Their forces can be forced to push to the border with Ethiopia, hoping to open new food routes.

Meanwhile, the RSF sided with the capital of the Northern Darfur, El Fashioner, protected by the coalition of former Darfur rebels, known as joint forces, allied with the army.

Most fighters are the ethnic SCO who have been in a rigid conflict with the Arab groups that make up the RSF core.

Month by the month of blockade, bombing and ground attacks have created a famine among the residents, with the people of the moved camp of the worse hit.

RSF and its allied Arab militias have a terrible recording, rape and ethnic purification. Human rights organizations have accused Genocide against the Masalite people of Western Darfur.

Skaro communities in El Fasher are afraid that if joint forces are broken, they will suffer from wild repression in the hands of RSF.

The pressure on El Phasher is growing. Last week, RSF captured the desert garrisons at the border with Libya, which was conducted by joint forces.

The military has accused the forces of loyal to Libyan strongman General Khalifa Haftar, who controls the east of the country, as well as reporting on the Emirate support in joining the attack.

Sudan’s civilian residents who ruled six years ago an unusual feat Overthrow of the long-standing leader of Omar al-Bashir through non-violent protestsThey are in disorder.

Different groups are leveled with Burhan, with hemedti, or trying to deprive a neutral position. They are all active in social media, polarized, harmonious and fragmented.

Committees next to the driving force of the civil revolution are clinging to life.

Most held back their political heads down, focusing on the basis of the main humanitarian activity. Known as “emergency response rooms”, help workers acknowledge that they are the most effective salvation channel.

But many lost funding When US Presidential Administration Donald Trump closed in the United States and other donors are not in breach.

Both armies and RSF see any form of civic activity as a threat.

They hack, arrest, torture and kill national assistance workers and human rights defenders.

There is no reliable peace process.

The UN Chief Diplomat, appointed Sudan, former Prime Minister Algeria Ramatan Lamar, formulated a peaceful plan, which was based on the assumption that the army would reach a military victory.

All that will remain for negotiations is the disarmament of the RSF and the reconstruction of the country. This is completely unrealistic.

Burhan has a great diplomatic advantage over Hemedti because the UN recognized the military side of Sudan’s government, even if it did not control the national capital.

The HEMEDTI attempt to launch a parallel administration for the huge territories controlled by RSF has received little authority.

Foreign Ministers at London Conference in AprilThe British Foreign Minister David Lami organized, could not agree with peace. The conference -Krela had to agree to a statement that covered the familiar soil.

As before, the progress was blocked because Saudi Arabia and the UAE could not agree.

Diplomats acknowledge that Sudan’s war is an African problem that needs Arabic solution.

The path to peace in Khartoum goes through Abu -Dabi, Riyadh and Cairo.

For Egypt, the main question is whether Burhan is able to retire from Sudan Islamists.

Under Bashir, the Islamist movement has been in power for 30 years and created a formidable and well -funded organization that still exists.

Islamists mobilized the fighting crews that were key until the recent victory of the Khartoum army.

Egypt’s President Abdul Fatah al-Sisi supports Burhan and wants him to put in the direction of Islamists, but knows that he cannot push General Sudan too much.

This issue acquires an additional sign of Israel’s attack on Iran and the fear of Islamists that they face irreversible defeat.

Another big question is whether the UAE will retreat from HEMEDTI support.

Once RSF lost Khartum, some hoped that Abu -Dabbi could compromise – but in a few weeks RSF has deployed drones that seem to come from the UAE.

The UAE is also faced with strategic problems as it is more in the Arab world in its agreement with Israel.

No one wants to see the Sudan divided. But the reality of the war indicates the actual section between the bitter against the confrontation of the warring camp.

Meanwhile, the largest and deep humanitarian emergency in the world is deteriorating without end.

More than half of 45 million Sudan’s people have been displaced. Almost a million in hunger.

Both sides continue to restrict access to fasting. The UN’s $ 4.2 billion ($ 3 billion) for the necessary assistance was only 13.3% at the end of May.

On the global scale and among the Arab brokers, Sudan is not a priority, an orphan, an orphan in the burning region.

It is a country where multilateral organizations – the United Nations and the African Union – can still be relevant.

They can remind all their obligations in the field of human rights and human life, and that no one sees a Sudan catastrophe continues to unfold.

The long -suffering Sudanese people certainly deserve this quantum mercy.

Alex de Vaal is the Executive Director of the World Peace Fund at the Fletcher Law and Diplomacy School at the U.S. UNIVER.