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US President Donald Trump provides extensive expenses and tax legislation known as “one big beautiful bill” after he signed it at the White House in Washington, USA, July 4, 2025.
Leah milis | Reuters
S&P Global said he expects a “meaningful” income of the federal government from the president Donald TrumpWide Tariff policy “Usually compensate for the weaker”, which is expected from the recently accepted Trump The main bill on taxes and expenses.
S&P Global quotes this forecast on Monday as it supported your AA+ rating About the long-term sovereign US debt and its A-1+ rating on “short-term unwanted sovereign loan”.
But the company warned: “We could reduce the rating over the next two or three years, when a high deficit is already increasing, which reflects political inability to retain cost growth or manage the consequences of revenue from changes in the tax code.”
He also warned that ratings could “under pressure if political events weighs the force of US institutions and the effectiveness of long -term policy or the independence of the federal reserve.”
“This, in turn, may endanger the dollar status as a leading reserve currency in the loan world,” said S&P Global.
Trump has imposed a wide and often high import tariff from other countries since the return of the White House in January.
In July, Trump is the so -called ‘A great beautiful bill “ became a law. The legislation provides for the reduction of the federal government, as well as reducing tax rates.
July 21, Congress’s budget It has estimated that the law would lead to a pure increase in the deficit of the federal budget by 3.4 trillion. Dollars compared to 2025 to 2034.
“This increase in the deficit, it is estimated, stems from a $ 1.1 trillion reduction and a $ 4.5 trillion revenue reduction,” CBO said at the time.
On Monday, S&P Global stated: “Among the growth of effective tariff tariffs, we expect a significant tariff income, usually compensates for weaker financial results, which may otherwise be related to the recent financial legislation containing both reduction and taxes and expenses.”
Last week, the Ministry of Finance said that in July, nearly $ 21 billion in customs duties collections in the United States as a result of Trump’s tariff policy. However, the deficit of the federal budget increased by almost 20% per month, the department reports.
But S&P Global said “” the forecast remains stable, which reflects our expectation of constant stability in the US economy; reliable, effective execution of monetary policy; high but not growth, fiscal deficit, which is at the heart of increasing pure total state debt; and increasing the debt of 5 trillion. “
“The stable outlook indicates our expectation that although the results of the fiscal deficit deficit will not improve, we do not design constant deterioration over the next few years,” S&P said.
“This includes our opinion that changes that are included in domestic and international politics do not weigh the stability and diversity of the US economy,” the company said.
“And, in turn, the widespread savings of income, including a reliable tariff income, will offset any financial promotion from tax reducing and increasing costs.”
