Russian ships have returned to the Syrian base of Tartus ahead of the expected withdrawal

Two Russian ships linked to its military have docked at the Kremlin’s naval base on the Syrian coast at Tartus, and experts believe the expected evacuation of the facility has finally begun.

Sparta and Sparta II docked in Tartus on Tuesday. Both ships are under US sanctions and are linked to the transportation of Russian weapons to Ukraine.

Analysts had expected Russia to reduce its military footprint in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime in December, which it supported throughout the civil war.

A large amount of military equipment has been moved into the port in recent weeks and was seen in satellite images analyzed by BBC Verify.

The pictures seem to show dozens of cars and other equipment parked in the port. Equipment first appeared in mid-December after footage of large convoys of Russian vehicles moving north towards the base – suggesting they were diverted from other outposts around the country.

The arrival of the ships coincides with Syrian media reports that Russia has canceled the lease of the port. The new transitional government in Damascus refused to confirm the BBC’s reports, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also refused to comment during a press conference in Moscow.

Tartus has been a key base for Russia in recent years, allowing it to refuel, resupply and repair ships in the Mediterranean.

The Kremlin appears keen to retain control of the base and said in December that Russian officials were in talks with the new authorities about continuing the presence.

Analysts suggested that the Sparta and Sparta II, ultimately owned by Defense Logistics LLC, a shipping company that operates as part of the Russian Ministry of Defense, were denied permission to dock at Tartus while discussions continued. The ships spent several weeks off the coast of Syria in the Mediterranean.

Marine tracking sites show the ships finally docked on Tuesday evening, after which they switched off their transponders.

The weather in recent days has made it difficult to get accurate satellite images. But images from the EU’s Sentinel satellites, which are low-resolution but able to penetrate cloud cover, showed the ships were in the military part of the port.

so far, no Russian warships were seen in Tartus after the fall of the Assad regime in early December. Earlier high-resolution satellite images showed dozens of military vehicles parked near where the ships now stand. There were also cranes nearby that could be used for loading equipment.

It is possible that two more Russian naval ships are also in the port, naval analyst Frederik Van Lockeren told BBC Verify. He said that the ships “Ivan Gren” and “Aleksandr Atrakovskii” could also be involved in the evacuation – this opinion was echoed by the Ukrainian military intelligence BBC Verify.

“After the termination of the 49-year lease, it became very clear to Russia that it could no longer rely on maintaining a military presence in Tartus, and therefore it seemed to make no sense to remain there and delay a naval evacuation,” Mr. Van Lokeren added.

But the evacuation of all Russian equipment may take some time, according to Anton Mardasov from the Middle East Institute’s Syria program.

“A lot more has been brought there over the years than these ships and vessels can take,” Mr Mardasov told BBC Verify.

Meanwhile, hostilities continue at the main Russian Khmeimim air base in Syria. Satellite images show large Russian planes being loaded with military equipment on various days since the fall of the Assad regime.

Ukrainian military intelligence said that since mid-December, Russian flights have transferred military personnel and equipment from Khmeimim to air bases in Libya at least 10 times. The Kremlin already supports the field commander from Tobruk Khalifa Haftar in eastern Libya.

For a long time, Moscow maintained a presence at two bases mentioned by Ukrainian intelligence — Al-Khadim and Al-Jufra. Former member of the UN working group on mercenaries, Dr Sorcha McLeod, told BBC Verify that the facilities were previously run by Wagner’s group.

She said that the Russian Ministry of Defense has taken responsibility for the bases through its new Africa Corps. The forces are controlled directly by Moscow and have took over most of the former role of the Wagner group.

Dr McLeod added that the redeployment of Russian forces to the country “makes sense given that Libya has become such a large hub for Africa Corps operations and access to West Africa”.

Additional reporting by Ned Davis and Joshua Cheetham. Graphics by Mesut Ersoz.