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Oil prices, which have passed around a two -week maximum in the early trading on Wednesday, with the support of the US and China agreement will temporarily reduce its mutual tariffs and the fall of the US dollar.
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Stretch Drop in prices for raw He raised the pressure on Big Oil’s attachment to highlight cash shareholders.
Supermajors Western Energy has long sought to return the money to investors through the redemption and dividend programs to keep their shareholders happy. Energy executives also have expressed confidence that they can continue to reward investors after a relatively reliable income set in the first quarter.
Some analysts, however, are less convinced of the promise of large oil to return the increasing return of shareholders, citing the already stretched balances and a sharp fall in the raw prices.
Prices Trading policy back and back.
Espen Erlingsen, Head of the Research Department in Rystad Energy Consultation, – Note The latest volatility of the market has left energy specialties with “several economically attractive options” that allow the reinfisted, while maintaining the competitive base of capital.
“As companies like Shell and Exxonmobil Keep going forward with large -scale ransom programs, despite reducing cash tributaries, the durability of these strategies is speaking. So far the majors are holding the line. But if oil prices remain depression, adjustments can be inevitable, “the research note published on Thursday notes.
Redemption, which are usually more flexible than dividends, “probably the first lever,” he added. In this direction, the weak prices for raw raw materials mean that in energy specialties there will be less money to return to shareholders.
The BP logo is visible at the gas station on this illustration made in Poland on March 15, 2025.
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Concerns investors about the resilience of Big Oil’s returns come in a year of record payments.
Analysts in Rystad stated PP. Total energy. EniExxon Mobil and Chevron In 2024, he rose to a tremendous $ 119 billion, beating the previous record set in 2023.
Payments, which calls shareholders’ payments as a share of corporate cash flow (CFFO), at the same time jumped up to 56%last year, Ristad said. It was much higher than the range of 30% to 40%, which was typical for the industry from 2012 to 2022, analysts added.
If the shareholders’ payments remained at the level of 2024 during 2025, Ristad stated that this means that companies would distribute more than 80% of their cash flow to investors. The assessment was based on CFFO’s first quarter Big Oil as a proxy for the full year.
The point of maximum weakness
For European specialties, the Bank of America’s analysts said at the beginning of the year in a note called “Goodbye, Redemption?” What it expected to reduce such returns, from companies whose balances have already been stretched.
Bank Wall -Rate quotes BP, Repeat And Annie at the time. Added that only shell, total energy and Even They were among the regional players who would probably retain their corresponding 2025.
Repsol and ENI representatives were not immediately available for comments when CNBC appealed.
So far, the BP-Annex European Major in Energy, which has reduced its redemption speed. Last month, British oil company pushed published A sharp drop in profit in the first quarter and reduced ransom to $ 750 million, which is $ 1.75 billion in the previous quarter.
BP that was the subject of intense Speculation of the absorptionalso report A much smaller monetary flow and increased pure debt for the first quarter.
Lydia Kryfor, Head of the European Energy Department, Joint Studies in Barclays, said the BP’s future looks “really light” – provided that the company may survive the next six months.
“When I think, if this is the point of maximum weakness for BP, it is over the next six months, ultimately. The debt continues to grow a little, the production continues to fall until mid-2016,” said Rainfort Steve Sedvik in CNBC on Thursday.
“If I get to the end of the year, I hope we will see that the amount of deprivation that reduces debt. Things like … Sell business by lubricantsThis can raise $ 12 billion to $ 15 billion. This reduces the debt, you begin to see the benefit of savings, and then the production growth begins to beat next year, ”she added.
