Myanmar’s deadly earthquake deepens political upheaval, experts say

Myanmar’s ruling military junta seizes the consequences of the deadly earthquake as an opportunity to return control amid a depleting civil war. But analysts say the durable ceasefire remains unlikely.

A massive earthquake 7.7 two weeks ago, one of the strongest who got into Myanmar over the century, shocked the nation already devastated by the brutal civil war, which moved millions and reduced its economy.

The official number of dead grew up to 3471 as of SundayWith thousands of injured or missing. The prognostic modeling of the United States Geological Service counted the number of deaths of up to 10,000 best and economic losses exceeding the annual GDP destroyed by war that amounted to $ 66.8 billion in 2023According to the World Bank.

Just a few hours after the earthquake managers Cyclone Nargis that got into the Asian nation in 2008. Then Junta initially rejected international assistance, resulting in the death of more than 84,000 with tens of thousands.

This shift in his reaction, described by some as “uncharacteristic”, caused a cautious hope for political settlement between the junta and the resistance forces, as well as the previous natural disasters in the region led to peace talks. In 2004 the Tsunami of the Indian Ocean pushed the truce deal Between the Indonesian government and local rebels to facilitate assistance efforts.

However, analysts see little chance of a similar peace that occurs in Myanmar, which has suffered from natural disasters.

“The fighting lines are too deeply cut, and there are virtually no common grounds on which junta and opposition, including warring ethnic armed groups, can come to the table for any significant dialogue,” said Angan Chudhur, Singaporean Foreign Policy.

Any ceasefire declaration is likely to be “temporary and very vulnerable to be broken, given tensions on earth,” he said, waiting for the junta “quietly used the effects of the earthquake to degrade the resistance and get the top on the battlefield.”

Last Wednesday the military said 20-day ceasefire Continuing until April 22 to support humanitarian aid efforts, warning that it would be “accordingly” when the rebels initiated the attacks.

Myanmar has entered the political and humanitarian crisis since 2021, when its military supplanted the elected government, causing a long -standing civil war that moved 3.5 million and left its economy in the Tatra.

If anything, the earthquake can make the Myanmar “an even more unsuccessful and cruel state,” said Joshua Kourlatik, senior employee of South -East Asia and South Asia in the Foreign Relations Council.

“The reaction of a bad earthquake – no possibility to have a decent answer – only to increase the anger and disgust of public anger and disgust to the driving military, which have already been despised by the majority of the population, “said the Kurlantik, while” the opposition will again be backed up by the people, seeing the insufficient dunte. “

Armed conflicts and events (Acadled) that monitor global conflicts occupy Myanmar as The second largest of the violent and dangerous place in the world Last year.

About 90% 55 million country population subjected to political violence, Acling noted. His people also do not have sufficient access to electricity, communications, health and education and vulnerable to crimes, including human and drugs.

Prior to the ceasefire announcement, the military remained on a military basis and conducted several airstrikes in the affected earthquakes, the earthquake, According to Amnesty International.

The junta also sought Slow humanitarian effort Supporting tough security measures and used their strength to block the supplies for the earthquakes near the epicenter controlled by the anti -government forces, the UN Human Rights Office reports on Friday.

In the incident that emphasizes the problems of assisting against the background of a permanent civil war, the junta – Note His troops fired at the Chinese convoy of the Red Cross, which could not go into the conflict zone.

“The military junta has already shown through its permanent airstrikes that it would prefer resistance to eliminate the consequences of natural disasters,” said Scott Marsiel, Senior Advisor Bower Group ASIA and former US Ambassador to Myanmar.

During a rare foreign trip after a devastating earthquake, Junta Ming Aung Hlaing, avoided most world leaders, was warmly welcomed According to top Thai officials when he visited the Bangkok capital for a regional summit. On the sidelines of the summit he met Thai Premier Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi discuss rehabilitation after the ground effort and strengthening bilateral ties.

China was one of the first to send assistance workers and assistance for assistance in recovery in Myanmar, promises 100 million yuan ($ 13.7 million) deliveries. US, a key player in the early efforts to assist after Narga, promised relatively modest 9 million dollars In the humanitarian donations of the nation of South -East Asia, after US President Donald Trump the decision to cut foreign assistance.

Enchanted offensive with other Asian leaders after the earthquake can be an unexpected silver lining for junta to gain some benefit in the upcoming election.

“Support for elections held in the junta is equal to supporting the democratic transitional process,” Chudhur said, adding that foreign countries can regard it as a junta, “which is moving to some civil government, although the reality is very different.”

The promised elections were widely criticized as fake to retain the military in power through trusted persons, given that dozens of political parties were banned. But Junta Ming’s Chief is Holding justify The summit last Friday said that the planned elections in December 2025 would continue despite the disaster.