Moldova is facing an energy crisis as the flow of Russian gas stops

Russian gas stopped flowing through Ukraine on New Year’s Day.

Kyiv is calling the day “historic” as its refusal to extend a transit agreement with Russia’s Gazprom has halted the return of cash to finance a full-scale invasion of Ukraine

But in neighboring Moldova, this step threatens to cause a crisis.

In Transnistria, a separatist region of eastern Moldova loyal to Moscow, the year began with heating only hospitals and critical infrastructure, not homes.

“The hot water was on until about 2am, I checked. Now it’s turned off and the radiators are barely warm,” Dmitry told the BBC by phone from his apartment in the enclave.

“We still have gas, but the pressure is very low – just what’s left in the pipes.”

– It’s the same everywhere.

Transnistria broke away from the rest of Moldova in a brief war when the Soviet Union collapsed. Russian troops are still stationed on its territory, and the economy is completely dependent on Russian gas, for which the authorities in Tiraspol do not pay anything.

“They just have a file where it says how much is owed each month,” explains Jakub Penkowski of the Polish Institute of International Affairs PSIM. “But Russia is not interested in asking for this money.”

Suddenly, this escape route through Ukraine was cut short.

In some cities of Transnistria, the authorities have created “heating points”, hotlines are open for help in finding firewood. Families were advised to gather in one room to keep warm and to cover gaps in windows and doors with blankets.

New Year’s Day brought sunshine to the enclave, but overnight temperatures are forecast to dip below 0C.

“It’s cold in the apartment now,” says Dmitriy, a local resident. – We don’t know what kind of frost January will bring.

Electricity is still coming.

But Transnistria’s main power plant in Kurchugan is already running on coal instead of Russian gas, and authorities say it will last only 50 days.

This spells trouble for the rest of Moldova, which gets 80% of its electricity from Curchugan.

The government in Chisinau says it has enough gas to heat the country until spring, and will switch to buying electricity from Europe, but that means huge cost increases.

A state of emergency was imposed last month, with businesses and citizens told to reduce consumption in a country braced for blackouts.

The sudden stoppage of gas supply through Ukraine also affects Slovakia and Hungary.

Both pro-Moscow governments are much slower than others in the EU to divest themselves of Russian fuel and end Russian war funding. Paying more for alternative supplies will squeeze their budget.

But Moldova is poorer and less stable – a prolonged crisis could have serious economic and political consequences.

This may be what Moscow wants.

Russia could supply its allies in Transnistria through Turkey, albeit at a higher cost, which would mean electricity for all of Moldova.

Instead, Gazprom claims it has stopped supplies because Chisinau owes nearly $700 million. The Moldovan government claims that an international audit estimated the true amount to be around $9 million, which has mostly been repaid.

“We do not see this as an energy crisis, but as a security crisis caused by Russia to destabilize Moldova both economically and socially,” Olga Roshka, a foreign policy adviser to the president of Moldova, told the BBC.

“It is clear that this is a shaping operation ahead of parliamentary elections in 2025 to create demand for the return of pro-Russian forces to power.”

Relations between Moldova and Moscow are strained.

While part of the USSR, the country began negotiations to join the EU and turned its back on Russia even more decisively after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

President Maia Sandu was re-elected last year despite evidence of a massive campaign against her being waged from Moscow.

It didn’t stop.

Before her inauguration, Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR, issued a surprising statement falsely claiming that it planned to take back Transnistria by force in order to restore energy supplies. He described the president as “crazy” and “emotionally unstable.”

Analyst Yakub Penkovskyi agrees that the Kremlin is taking advantage of Kiev’s decision to ban the transit of Russian gas.

“This is an excuse to create some political and social problems in Moldova,” he claims. “Electricity prices have already gone up about six times in three years and people are angry.”

As the humanitarian situation in Transnistria worsens, the pressure on Chisinau will increase. But Tiraspol refuses any help, even generators.

“They will create a narrative that Chisinau will freeze Transnistria into submission,” Olga Roshka believes.

And even if Tiraspol wants to buy gas elsewhere, the blow to its economy could be catastrophic.

“The prices here would go up, including for heating and food. But pensions here are small, and there is no work,” Dmitriy from Bendery in the buffer zone on the edge of Transnistria told me.

He says that people are barely “hanging on” there. Now life in other parts of Moldova will also become more difficult.

“Russia can wait for the elections, and then the non-European parties will probably win,” predicts Yakub Penkovski.

“Because Maya Sandu can talk about joining the EU. But what good is that if people don’t have money for electricity and gas?”

“This is the goal of Russia.”