Markets return trust in Trump while trading deals continue to go

The previous US-Kita’s previous trade transaction has brought a fresh wave of optimism to Wall Street that President Donald Trump would not allow the stock market to get out of control.

The idea of ​​”Trump put” the restored couple after more than a month of heavy and registered instability caused by the president’s trade war. For Trump, this was uncharacteristic of the event on Wall -Rate, given how much accent he made in the financial markets during his first term.

Investors yet at least can comfort that the White House is on their side even if the mood is during Strong action He conducted a dose of flutter.

“Among the icebergs, the uncertainty swims optimism that the president will not allow this to get out of his hands and throw us into the recession,” said Sam Stolol, Chief Investment Strategist in CFRA. “We must realize that uncertainty has not been completely cleared. We can breathe a sigh of relief because we now have a 90-day pause.”

Following the announcement of the weekend that the fighting parties suspended mutual tariffs for the 90th day of the negotiations, the main average rates were rallied, posting better than 2% profits in directions. The small capital index of Rasel 2000, which took the main blow of the tariff, increased by more than 3%.

This step followed by a familiar model during Trump’s trade war. The markets were intensely sensitive to the risk of headlines, which seems to come daily.

Even with a big rally on Monday, there was still a strong hint of caution on the street.

“We must realize that the uncertainty was not fully cleared,” said Stolol. “We all know that both countries do not want a trade war, but they do not want to lose their face at the same time.”

Secretary Talks on the resume In the next few weeks. He also noted the US position that aspiring “strategic” junction From China and remains serious in its determination on the fentale part of the tariffs.

However, the availability of market veteran, like inflammation at the steering wheel, causes problems that negotiations can leave the rails, said Dario Perkins, head of the Global Macro -Strategy TS Lombard.

“Talks about” trade deals “helped to cancel the damage from (April 2) Liberation Day – the shares were bounced even at tariffs much higher than at the beginning of the year, and with the mass uncertainty in what will bring the next six months,” the client said. “It helps that Scott IDent has become the main press -secretary of Trump 2.0. He has a real talent for a banal policy so that they look intellectually agreed and” market “.

However, Perkins sees the cause to steam. He expects essentially “from here” from here “confusion”.

“I’m not saying that the bull’s case is completely inaccessible,” he said. “Trump clearly wants fast” transactions “, even fake. Both UK and China are more spinning than a substance. But the scenario with nonsense seems likely.”

Indeed, markets face other obstacles that are not included in the trade designs. Barclays strategists say they are “neutral risk assets” given these winds. “Now the attention should be paid from politics to hard data, with inflation in the main attention,” – said Barclays.

Among other winds The expected economic growth is weakenedA lesser profit from the corporation and the likelihood that Federal Reserve Or maybe slower to reduce interest rates if tariffs do not pose a rapid threat of recession.

Already on Monday, traders pushed the following Fed speed, now by September, with only two cuts expected by the end of 2025. This decreased compared to three cuts.

Even with trading transactions, there may be so much Trump to help the market.

It is “(like) ridiculous that an optimistic case for Trump 2.0 is basically that it will cancel most of what has done so far,” Perkins said.