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Owners of the 70-year-old “Octopus Balls” stores, restaurant-chat during training on Tokyo Street on February 21, 2025.
Richard A. Brooks | AFP | Gets the image
Jinflation of faste In March, he increased by 3.6% a year, noting three consecutively, that the title’s inflation rate above 2% of the Japanese bank’s target.
The figure was lower than the 3.7%observed in February.
The so -called “basic” inflation rate, which deprives prices of both fresh food and energy and is carefully monitored by BOJ, increased to 2.9% with 2.6% a month earlier.
The main inflation in the country – depriving fresh food prices – was 3.2%according to Reuters expectations. It was also compared to a 3% rise in February.
Data release occurs when Japan is closed in trade negotiations with the United States, and US President Donald Trump has written that there was a “great progress”.
Asia He came into force on March 12.
Trump, however, suspended his “mutual” tariffs of 24% on Japan for 90 days, leaving the base tariff for 10%.
A strong inflation figure will allow Japan to increase interest rates and normalize its monetary policy.
However, when tariffs from the US approach, Japan’s GDP may face pressure down and restrain the BOJ room to raise rates.
This opinion was shared by Nomura’s analysts in a note on April 16, which states that they are reconsidering their forecast from two hikes to one hike Boj from March 2027. Now Nomura expects Boj to hike only once in January 2026.
Nomura expects Japan’s real GDP to grow into a “close to zero” by a quarter of a quarter in July-September 2025 due to Trump tariffs.
Thus, the rise in wages, which is a backward indicator, may be under pressure down about the time of 2026, or spring wages, Nomura reports. This is likely to make it difficult to increase Boj’s speed during or after Shunto 2026.
