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“Japanese he will be good – and perhaps the best candidate to hide from the tensions in trade and recession in the US for a number of acquaintances,” said Ebrahim Rahbar, head of the strategy for the absolute research strategy.
Zhanna Xiao | Newhua News Agency | Gets the image
Investors flock into safe assets after last week US President Donald Trump announced mutual tariffs – some look at Japanese, bonds, and several other “exotic” assets.
“Japanese he will be good – and perhaps the best candidate to hide from the tensions in trade and recession in the US for a number of acquaintances,” said Ebrahim Rahbar, head of the strategy for the absolute research strategy.
“It is cheap, likely to reduce the US interest rates narrower rates to the yen, and although Japan is a well -known exporter, his total dependence on trade is now lower, especially when fiscal policy was free,” he said by e -mail.
Yen intensified about 3% Against the green lapel since April 2, according to LSEG. Rahbar added that the Swiss Frank is another “obvious candidate” as an investment hedge. Frank also estimated more than 3% to 0.8522 against the US dollar. These steps come when other currencies around the world weaken.
Another strategist repeated the opinion that both he and the Swiss Frank are one of the best options for cushioning Trump’s tariffs.
“Both Japanese and Swiss Frank are good currencies that help to mitigate the visceral market reaction to the tariffs,” said Matt Orton, head of consultative solutions and the Raymond James Investment Management market strategy.
But Orton expects that the Swiss franc will act as a better hedge than he, given the uncertainty associated with hiking in Japan’s bank.
Usually it exceeds the times of world recessions or crises, said Jeff NG, head of the Asian Macro -Strategy Banking Corporation Sumitomo Mitsui. “Even if the world avoids a rigid landing (it) can also do it well, because Boj may go further on the wave of weakening of the Central Bank,” he said.
However, he warned that Japan’s economy also faces tariffs for Trump, especially from car tariffs and components. And the slowdown economy will mean that Boj will be more prone to low performance, keeping the yen weak.
A more interesting question is whether there may be more “exotic” hedges other than classic safe shelter, said Rahbar, who called the Brazilian real option.
“The idea is that it is cheap, has a high transfer and that it is relatively less exposed to world trade,” Rahbara said, adding that this year the Real was one of the main exceeding currencies.
Bonds and gold?
Investors also raise cash as well as low -risk fixed options such as treasury and bonds.
Bond yields are also declining, reflecting the increase in the demand for bonds, and the 10-year US Treasury profits decreased by 6% from April 2 to 3.873% on Monday.
On Monday, the 10-year-old government bond of Japan fell to a minimum of 1.05%, which 28.52%decreased compared to the closure of 2.469%. It is also the lowest when the 10-year JGB yield has been since December 2024.
Risk positioning dominates the markets, as participants sell shares in favor of treasury, gold bars, green selection futures, raw oil barrels, volatility call options, capital index has set derivatives and forecast contracts, said Jose Torres, senior economist.
Gold prices have grown to record high in the immediate consequences of the mutual tariff announcement. Although they have fallen a bit since then, the price of a safe shelter remains at an elevated level. Observers in the market expect it to have more opportunities if the world markets remain on the border.
“Gold remains increased by escalation of the uncertainty of trade, increased geopolitical tensions, weaker US dollar, increasing the Central Bank’s purchases and increasing the risk of recession,” said BMI analysts.
NG SMBC said gold is usually a safe refuge during the financial crisis, noting that the demand for private households and governments remains elastic. However, he says “prices are stretched up”.
The reasons for the starry start by 2025 are only stronger now that Trump announced his tariffs, said Adrian Ash, Bulionva Research Director.
“Limal trade, higher contributions and reducing profitability greatly harming the stock market, while geopolitical distrust deepens. Such a gloomy forecast for economic growth offers the perfect background for further profits in gold,” he said.
Last Friday, US shares restricted a tough week for investors, falling by 9.08%, according to FactSet, as Trump’s steps cause more calls for global economic slowing. Jpmorgan, eg raised the chances for the US and the global recession up to 60% By the end of the year compared to 40% earlier.
“There is no application now,” said Orton Reyan James James Investment Management.
