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The headlines can announce the ceasefire but let’s be clear: Israeli-Iran war This is far from over. What we see is not peace is a tactical intermission. Weapons can be silent instantly, but the war remains alive in motifs, methods and thinking.
Don’t be fooled. Israel-Iran cessation of fire is a tactical intermission rather than a long peace
President Donald Trump On June 23, the announcement of a “complete ceasefire” between Israel and Iran led to twelve days of death. However, his own comments in the following hours, including on the way to the NATO summit, betrayed the unstable nature of this agreement – and the volatility of players’ participants.
Israel retreats from heavy beats on Iran, supporting the ceasefire after Trump pressure
Before landing the Air Force, the first Trump released a pointed public reproach: “Calm down, Israel!” He warned the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu What any strike against Iran after an effective ceasefire will be a violation. His words reflected not only the diplomatic urgency, but also the fragility of the agreement he had just announced.
And yet, for several hours, Iran, and Israel, have taken limited actions. Trump, noticeably disappointed, criticized both sides for the violation of the faith: “They don’t know what they are doing.” He added: “I have to force Israel to calm down now,” emphasizing the degree in the United States – not mutual trust – was a Lynchpine of the Early Survival of Certaining Fire.
This is the truth: the war is not over. He just shifted the forms.
Has the war between Israel and Iran ended? Only if we determine the “war” in the narrowest kinetic plan. But if we understand the war as a clash of will, ideologies and strategic goals – then this war continues, just under the other flag.
No contracts, checking regime and mutual recognition of legitimacy between the two states. Iran continues to deny Israel’s right to existenceAnd Israel is considering Iran’s nuclear program – and its regional proxy network – as existential threats. The official cessation of hostilities requires more silence; This requires permission. We are nowhere nearby.
To understand why this war is not over, let’s look at each side’s strategic goals. Israeli’s company was aimed at degradation of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure – especially at the Fordow underground enrichment site. In the short term, it does not eliminate Iran’s scientific knowledge or ideological commitment to nuclear power. Tehran has a technical talent, raw materials and – more dangerous – motivation to restore and accelerate the weapon program.
Iranian missile strikes At the bases of Israel and the USA in Qatar and Iraq, although they were largely intercepted – served as symbolic warnings. More importantly, Tehran gave sign that it retains the ability to hit deeply into the region. This message was not only for Tel -Vaviv – it was for Washington, Riyadh and the world.
Terms: Israeli-Iranian cessation of Trump’s fire nearly falls apart hours after announcement
The shadow war continues behind the scenes. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is still weapons in Lebanon trained by militias in Iraq and SyriaAnd it manages the proxy through the goose in Yemen. Israeli airstrikes in Damascus and other places in Syria are stored, albeit at the bottom. Cyber -operations, the supervision of the drone and the targeting for exploration remain in full readiness. These are not post -war conditions. These are indicators of unresolved and developing conflict.
Even diplomacy associated with ceasefire reflects its fragility. The agreement was instituted on indirect channels, without an official joint communique, without UN approval, and the next roadmap. Iran did not re -engaged in the International Atomic Energy Agency. Israel, of course, supports its right to strike again. The rhetoric has cooled down, but the posture remains hardened.
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And here is the political reality. Leaders of both countries face household districts that are skeptical of compromise. Chordliners in Tehran see ceasefire as a pause for reboot rather than a step towards reconciliation. In Jerusalem, the Israeli public generally supports preventive actions against the enemy of the nuclear armed armed. There is no political incentive on either side – no strategic trust – to get away from confrontation.
The map shows damage to Iran Fordow’s nuclear pad after the US hit Midnight Hammer. (Fox News)
So, did the war end? Only if we determine the “war” in the narrowest kinetic plan. But if we understand the war as a clash of will, ideologies and strategic goals – then this war continues, just under the other flag.
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The international community should not confuse this silence with peace. Rather, it should prepare for what goes on: a stable period of hidden confrontation, regional volatility and a constant risk of returning an open war with a slight warning. Diplomats should act urgently, not naive. Military leaders Must remain alert. And political leaders, especially in Washington, are the temptation to announce the victory before the conflict is really resolved.
The visible annoyance of Trump and his stupid warnings serve as a reminder: this ceasefire is no safer than the temperature and tactics of the opponents he bind. The Israeli-Iran war is not over. It just went into the following and perhaps the most dangerous, phase.
Click here to read away from Robert Maginis
