Iran’s Parliament approves the lock of the mountainuz

Iran may threaten to close the Hormus Strait, but the experts said CNBC that it was also the loser.

In the main step after us struck the Iranian nuclear sites, Country Parliament on Sunday It was reported that he approved the closure of the Strait of Mountains, risking to feel his neighbors and trading partners.

The decision to close the waterway is now based on the country’s national security council, and this may have caused the ghost of higher energy prices and the enhancement of geopolitical tensions, and Washington urged Beijing to prevent the closure of the Strait.

Wanda Hari, founder of Energy Intelligence Vanda Insights, said CNBC “A boxed box as Asia“That the closure possibility remains” absolutely minimalistic “.

When Iran blocks the strait, the country risks turning its neighboring countries that produce oil into enemies and risk with them, she said.

In addition, the closure would also provoke the Iran market in Asia, especially in China which Consider most exports of Iranian oil.

“So very little to achieve, and a lot of harm that Iran can do,” Hari said.

Her opinion is supported by Andrew Bishop, the senior partner and the global leader of the policy at the Signum Global Advisors Advisory Firm.

According to him, Iran will not want to withstand China, adding that the supply violation also “put the goal” for its own oil production, export infrastructure and the regime “at a time when there is little reason to doubt us, and Israeli determination is to be” caused “.

Clayton Saigl, a senior energy security officer and climate change at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that since China is “very dependent” on the Gulf Persian flows, not just Iran, “its interest in national security really evaluates the stabilization of the situation and the safety streams.”

Currently there are no signs of threats for commercial delivery that runs the waterway according to A joint sea information center. “The US -related court has successfully moved the Hormone Strait without interruption, which is a positive sign for the immediate future.”

The Harmus Strait is the only sea route from the Gulf to the open ocean, and about 20% of the world’s oil is carried on the waterway. The American Energy Information Administration has described It is like “the most important oil transit point”.

“Iran’s operations in Harmus and it are unlikely to” all or nothing, “but instead move on a sliding scale from a complete failure to no one,” said Bishop Signum.

“The best strategy (for Iran) would be the division of oil hormus, it is easy enough to harm the US through moderate movement up, but not enough to provoke a serious reaction of the US to Iran’s oil and exports,” he added.

On Sunday, Patrick de Haan, head of the oil analysis in Gasbuddy, said in a report on X that the price of the pump in the US could rise to $ 3.35- $ 3.50 per gallon in the following days, compared to the country’s $ 3.139 per week.

When Iran decides to close the strait, it probably uses small boats for a partial blockade, or for a more complete solution, mines the waterway, according to David Rosh, the Quantum strategist.

On Sunday S & P Global Commodity Insights He wrote that any Iranian closure of the Strait will mean that not only Iran’s own exports, but also in the nearby Persian Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar.

This potentially removes more than 17 billion barrels of oil from the world markets and will affect regional refineries, causing a deficit of raw materials, the research firm said. Violation of supplies will affect Asia, Europe, and North America.

In addition to oil, natural gas flows can also be “strongly influenced,” S&P said, when the Qatar’s gas exports are about 77 million metric tons a year, potentially unable to enter the key markets in Asia and Europe.

Exports of the Qatar’s SPG accounts for about 20% of the world’s world supply.

“Alternative oil and gas routes in the Middle East are limited, with the pipeline capacity not enough to compensate potential marine disruptions through the Gulf and the Red Sea,” S&P added.

A Bank of Commonwealth Australia He noted that “there is a limited volume to bypass the Horm Strait.” Pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE have only a spare capacity of 2.6 million barrels a day, while the Strait controls the transportation of 20 million barrels of oil and oil products per day, the bank said in the note.

All of these are an increase in the risk of energy prices, and Goldman Sachs estimated that the price market at a geopolitical prize for a risk of $ 12.

When the oil flows through the strait, one month decreased by 50% and then remain 10% for another 11 months, Brent is projected to “jump” about $ 110 for a short time, Goldman said.

Brent Currently, oil futures are $ 78.95 a barrel while Intermediate Western Texas Futures traded at $ 75.75.