India strike – how will Pakistan answer? Four key questions

In a dramatic operation, India said during the night that has launched missile and air strikes on nine sections across Pakistan and Kashmir, which will introduce into Pakistan, focusing on what is called belligerent positions based on “reliable intelligence”.

The strikes, which lasted only 25 minutes between 1:05 and 1:30 India’s time (19:35 and 20:00 GMT on Tuesday), sent shock waves in the region, and residents who woke up from the thunderstorms.

Pakistan said only six seats were impressed and claimed that they had beaten five Indian fighters and the drone – India did not confirm.

Islamabad said 26 people were killed and 46 were injured in Indian strokes and shelling on the control line (LOC) – in fact, the border between India and Pakistan. Meanwhile, the Indian army reported that 10 civilians were killed by Pakistani shelling on the side of the actual border.

This sharp escalation occurs after last month A deadly warlike assault At tourists in a murgome in Kashmir, which cancels India, pushes tensions between nuclear rivals to new dangerous heights. India claims that it has obvious evidence connecting terrorists and external subjects based in Pakistan, with the attack – the claim of Pakistan strongly denies. Islamabad also noted that India has not offered any evidence confirming its requirements.

In 2016, after 19 Indian soldiers died in urIndia launched “surgical strokes” across the area.

In 2019, Pulvam bombingwho left 40 Indian paramilitary staff dead, suggested Airborns deep into the balacot – The first such action inside Pakistan since 1971 – sparkling raids and aerial.

Experts point out that the retribution for the attack of the moon stands out for its wider sphere, focusing on the infrastructure of the three major militants based in Pakistan.

India states that this impressed nine militant purposes across Pakistan and Pakistan Kashmir, who got deep into key centers Lashkar-e- Taiba (Let), Jaish-E-Mohammedand Hizbul Mujahideen.

Among the closest goals were two camps in Sialkot, just 6-18 km from the border, the Indian spokesman reports.

The deepest blow, says India, was the Jaish-e-Maham headquarters in Bahawalpur, 100 km in Pakistan. A camp with permission to Muzafarabad, 30 km from Loc and the capital of Kashmir, who released Pakistan, was linked to recent attacks in Kashmir, headed by India, the spokesman said.

Pakistan says six seats were impressed, but he denies allegations that there were terror camps.

“This time it strikes the expansion of India’s goals over the past samples. Earlier, the strikes like a balacot, focused on Kashmir, headed by Pakistan, across the control-millitated border,” Srinat Raghavan said in Delhi.

“This time India has been hit by Penjab Pakistan across the international border, Orientation to terrorist infrastructureHeadquarters and famous places in the booles and the murdake associated with Lashkar-e-Tabai. They also struck Jaish-e-Mahamed and Hizbul’s assets. This suggests a broader, more geographical answer, signaling that several groups are now in the cross -path of India – and sending a broader message, “he says.

International Border of India-Pakistan Officially recognized limit Counting both countries, reaching from Gujarat to Jamm.

Aji Bisaria, a former Indian Supreme Commissioner in Pakistan, told the BBC that what India has done is “a balacot plus response designed to create deterrence, focusing on famous terrorist centers, but is accompanied by a strong de-escalate.”

“These strikes were more accurate, focused and more prominent than in the past. Therefore (they) are less refusing Pakistan,” says Mr. Bisaria.

Indian sources say the strikes were aimed at “restraining”.

“The Indian government believes that the restraint created in 2019 has wore subtly and it should be restored,” says Professor Ragovan.

“It seems to reflect the doctrine of Israel that the curb requires periodic, repeated blows. But if we assume that the blow alone scares terrorism, we run the risk of giving Pakistan any stimulus to revenge – and this can quickly get out of control.”

Most experts agree that Pakistan’s revenge is inevitable – and diplomacy will come into the game.

“Pakistan’s response is sure to come. The task will be managed by the following escalation level. It is here that crisis diplomacy will be important,” Mr. Bisaria says.

“Pakistan will receive tips to restrict. But the main thing will be diplomacy after Pakistani’s response, to ensure that both countries do not quickly rise on the escalation ladder.”

Pakistani experts, such as Ejaz Hussein, a political and military analyst based in Lahore, say that Indian surgical strikes were directed on the spot such as Muridke and Bahawalpur, “largely expected, given the existing tension.”

D -R Hussein believes the rewards can be.

“Given the Pakistani military rhetoric and the stated determination to resolve the results, retaliation, perhaps in the form of surgical strikes across the border, probably in the coming days,” he said BBC.

But Dr. Hussein is worried that surgical strikes on both sides can “grow into a limited ordinary war.”

Christopher Clary of the University of Olbani in the US believes that given the scale of India’s blows, “visible damage in key places” and reported loss, Pakistan is very likely to avenge.

“To do otherwise, in fact, India will give India permit for Pakistan’s strike when Delhi feels victim and contrary to Pakistani’s commitment to revenge” Quid Pro Quo Plus “,” said Mr. Claire, who studies South Asia’s policy, said the BBC.

“Given the stated goals of India groups and objects related to terrorism and militancy in India, I think this is probably – but far from definitely – Pakistan will be limited to attacks on Indian military purposes,“He said.

Despite the increasing tension, some experts still consider the hope of de-escalation.

“There is a decent chance that we avoid this crisis with only one round of mutual strokes of the confrontation and the period of reinforced firing on the control line,” says Mr. Clair.

However, the risk of further escalation remains high, making it the “most dangerous” crisis of India-Pakistan since then 2002 – And even more dangerous than the 2016 and 2019 confrontations, he adds.

Experts in Pakistan point out that, despite the lack of military hysteria leading to India’s strike, the situation may change quickly.

“We have a deeply destroyed political society, and the most popular leader of the country behind bars. The imprisonment of Imran Khan has caused a strong anti-war reaction,” says Faruk, an analyst based in Islamabad, and former defense correspondent Jane weekly.

“Today, the Pakistani public is much less seeking to support the military compared to 2016 or 2019 -the usual wave of war hysteria is not noticeable. But if public opinion changes in the Central Punjab, where anti -Indies feelings are more common, we could see the increase in citizens’ pressure on the military.

Dr. Hussein repeats similar moods.

“I believe that the current confrontation with India enables the Pakistani military to return public support, especially in the city middle classes who recently criticized this for perceived political intervention,” he says.

“The active position of the military is already increasing through the main and social media, and some outlets claim that six -seven Indian planes have been beaten.

“Although these claims are guaranteed by an independent check, they serve to strengthen the image of the military among the public segments, which are conditionally united around national defense stories during the external threat.”

India again goes along the subtle border between escalation and restraint.

Shortly after the attack in the funeral, India quickly avenged, closing the main border crossing, suspending the water distribution agreement, expelling diplomats and stopping most visas for Pakistani citizens. The troops on both sides exchanged small hands, and India banned all Pakistani planes from their air space, reflecting the previous step of Pakistan. In response, Pakistan rejected the 1972 peace treaty and took his own retaliation.

This reflects India’s actions after Pulvama’s attack in 2019, when it quickly recalled the status of the most popular Pakistan, imposed heavy tariffs and suspended key trade and transport ties.

The crisis grew when India launched air strikes, after which the Pakistani air raids and the western Indian pilot were paid by the Nodanandan, more enhancing the tension. However, diplomatic channels eventually led to de -escalation, and Pakistan released the pilot to the gesture of good will.

“India was ready to give old-fashioned diplomacy another chance …. This is when India reached a strategic and military goal, and Pakistan said the concept of victory of his home audience,” Mr. Bisaria told me last week.