India implies us in Trump’s tariff plan

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10% collection of all Indian goods in the US is noticeably better than 26% import tax. I am sure.

But the threat of the highest figure exceeded in India has not disappeared.

US President Donald Trump first broke the established international trading system, announcing worldwide “mutual” tariffs earlier this month, and then turned the course on Wednesday, returning to 10% of the tax rate in almost all countries.

Although this can be a short-term relief, the agreement on the US agreement is still seizing for India.

But unlike other Asian economies, which are openly dependent on exports, the consumer economy in India gives her a stronger hand in any trade negotiations from the United States, experts say.

According to the World Bank, exports of goods (and services not subject to tariff) are about five of the Indian economy. Meanwhile, exports amounted to 65% and 87% of GDP for new market competitors such as Thailand and Vietnam, respectively.

While the US will impose tariffs on imports of goods that take into account 56.1% of the total exports of IndiaServices have not yet been targeted. Some of the largest companies in India, eg Tcs and InfosysIt is unlikely that the tariffs will be subjected to the direct impact, and it may be exposed to this issue indirectly if a global economic slowdown occurred, given that most of their customers are abroad.

Indian export destinations for goods are also significantly diversified, and the US accounts for only 18% unloading in 2023-2024, the Ministry of Commerce and Indian Industry reports.

“The structure of trading from India to the US is quite different than, say, China as an example, a -in the services component,” said James Sullivan, the head of the Asia -Tsikhakan Studies Jpmorgan, said CNBC Squawk Box Asia. “The US administration is almost completely focused on trading in goods, not on trade in services where the US is actually surplus.”

“If this story begins to change, we must admit that most Indian exports to the US are IT services,” Sullivan added. “These actions have taken a significant blow from the risk of recession in the US, and the lack of corporate costs, which then got into IT services.”

While in India there are some strengths, the task facing Indian negotiators can become more complicated competitors who look at a much worse scenario.

Now in China, the total rate of 125% (at the time of this press) is threatened, while Vietnam risks returning 46% of “mutual” import duties – the highest indicator that the US introduction.

Their economic vulnerability, since exports to the US is a considerable part of GDP, has led to divergent reactions. While China has decided to respond to countermeasures, Vietnam suggested destroying all tariffs by potentially paving the way to the US free trade agreement

“There was just a very productive call for Lama, the Secretary -General of the Communist Party of Vietnam, who told me that Vietnam wants to reduce his tariffs to zero if they could conclude an agreement with the US, Trump posted social media and social media on the social media sites X Shortly after the opening of its tariff program.

On Wednesday, the secretary of the Treasury Scott Baissance, who is holding trade negotiations, showed that he met with participants of Vietnam talks on this day.

Vietnam preventively proposed to reduce the tariffs for agricultural and energy import tariffs as soon as the tariffs were opened, he went on, promising to purchase aerospace, protection and security products in the US

The fact is that Vietnam throws a kitchen shell on the production of tariffs and strives for free trade. However, this step can also push other countries to compete by offering the US even more favorable trade conditions.

In the short term, while Apple It is reported that the iPhone made more made in India in India to offset the steep tariffs for China, Cupertino executives may also wonder whether zero tariffs in Vietnam may have a transaction-can be better than India.

For companies, it would be natural to think that while 26% tariffs for India is better than 125% tariffs for China, 0% Vietnam tariffs would be even better. And this school of thought will also not be limited to California.

Japanese Electronics Manufacturer Sourcenext Corp This week announced plans to create a new factory in Vietnam after the existing object in China has become inappropriate for export to the US

At first glance, all this may seem to threaten the current relatively favorable position of India with the US

“Although India wants to have its own solution for the production industry IT (US-Vietnam transaction) will certainly have a certain impact on its (negotiations) with the United States,” said Mark Kurtnik, director of Aubrey Capital, said CNBC India. “And remember that the bully is always more forgiven by those who have previously succumbed. Those who hang for longer make him lick the chops.”

Shell Global Fund of the Developing Has 32% distribution in China and 30% distribution to India.

Far from the race to lower to the lower tariff decline, however, Murotossian believes that India uses negotiations with the US, indicating that exports to goods is a tiny share of the common economy. This means that the Indian participants in the US talks are unlikely to have a mandate to make broad concessions similar to Vietnam.

Others agree.

“The tariff situation is still developing, but India is relatively well positioned because of its low dependence on export of goods, and therefore may have some flexibility in the development of its possible position,” said the Abhir Elesevarap, the head of the Indian shares to the BNP Parbas. “Most India sectors receive less than 10% of their export income, with the exception of IT services and pharmaceuticals.”

“India will not compromise in certain areas such as agriculture, and therefore is in the best winner,” said Gavrov Narain, Chief Advisor of the Capital Growth Fund in London.

“My own feeling is that India will try to compensate for a negative trade balance … by making higher imports in areas such as oil / protection, etc. However, it can reduce tariffs to 0% in many areas such as pharmaceuticals and cars where there is already a very well-developed, inexpensive production.

Naene added that even in the short term India will see “limited impact” from tariffs, because supply chains cannot be easily changed when the apple emphasizes.

“I think the companies will take a long-term, structural approach to the destruction of its supply chains. India has the advantage that it is not perceived as simply redirecting from China, which works in favor,” Naene added.

For investors in Indian stocks the market is less forgiven. In addition to the tariff markets of turbulence, shares in India are still considered too expensive with high rates.

“According to profits, it still takes a reset below,” said Ozoty Suresh, head of the Indian shares at Macquarie Capital. “We believe that the worst is lagging and we could see tributaries in the coming months.”

Suresh also suggested that investors could hide from the current turbulence, putting in stocks, which receive most of their income at the local level, not exporters with great capitalization. Analyst Macquarie said he prefers a telecommunications firm Bharti AirtelOil and gas firm Urgeand The ultra -technical cement Until the dust is settled.

India’s reserve bank lowers rates. On Wednesday the Central Bank of India cut your political rate by 25 basic points to 6%Noting the lowest level since September 2022, when the growth concerns the fifth largest economy in the world. Reduction rate meets the expectations of analysts surveyed by Reuters. The IRB has also reduced the growth expectations for the financial year 2025-26 to 6.5% from 6.7%.

“Optimistic” RBI forecast. Mridul Saggar, Professor of Economics of Indian Business School IIM Kozhikode and former RBI Executive Director, said the country This year’s growth can be about 6% He called the RBI projection “optimistic”.

A The Indian government expects to achieve the goal of growth. Despite the violations caused by Trump‘s Tariffs, India are likely to hit it Predicted expansion of gross domestic product by 6.3%-6.8% .

The tariffs for the European Union can be cut. According to the Reuters report quoted by the sources, the government of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is considering reducing it Tariffs on EU car imports up to 10% of 100% In the stages. However, domestic automakers want to tariffs for 30% minimally and in order to remain duties of electrical vehicles that have not changed by 110%.

Indian shares fell on Thursday, thrown trend in Asian actions. A Nifty 50 This week the index closed by 0.6%, heading for 2.2% of the loss. This year the index decreased by 5.3%.

A 10-year government bond in India decreased slightly to 6.43%, which is 3 databases compared to last week.

On CNBC television this week Pranjul Bhandari, HSBC chief economist, estimated that 26% Trump tariffs in India can Set up 0.5 percentage item From the economic growth of the country. If global trading models change, such as China, which exports more goods to India, it can also harm the internal production sector of India. “Direct or indirect, our meaning is that the growth will need help” in the next few quarters, Bjandar added.

Meanwhile, Saln Varma, Chief Economist Nomura in India and ex-Japon Asia, stated that there is that Two factors Make a portfolio and direct investment in India attractive. First, the difference in the degree of tariffs between India and China stands for India, which “makes sense” for transnational companies to overcome its production in India. Secondly, the India is a strategic ally of the United States and works with the world’s largest economy on long-term trade plans.

China’s economic growth in the first quarter will be the main economic event on Wednesday, which should be paid to the next week. Consumer price index reports for India, Japan and UK will give photo about inflation in these economies.

April 11: India’s consumer price index for March, industrial and industrial production for FebruaryChina imports and exports to March, US Price Index for March, British gross domestic product in February

April 14: Indian wholesale price index for March

April 16: Chinese gross domestic product for the first quarter, retail sales in March, consumer price index, finals, March, Consumer Price Index for March

April 16: press conference of the European Central Bank

April 18: Japanese consumer price index for March