India and Pakistan again face conflicts

Last week, a deadly militant attack in a shower in Kashmir, headed by India, who took 26 civil lives, returned the gloomy feeling of Duj Wu for the Security and Diplomats of India.

This is a familiar soil. In 2016, after 19 Indian soldiers died in urIndia launched “surgical strikes” through the control line – actually the border between India and Pakistan – focusing on militants bases.

In 2019, Pulvam bombingwho left 40 Indian paramilitary staff dead, suggested Airborns deep into the balacot – The first such action inside Pakistan since 1971 – sparkling raids and aerial.

And before that, horrible 2008 Mumbai’s attacks – 60 -hour siege in hotels, railway station and Jewish center – took 166 lives.

Whenever India occupied Pakistani militants responsible for the attacks, accusing Islamabad of silent support, Pakistan’s accusation was invariably denied.

Since 2016, and especially after the airstrikes of 2019, the escalation threshold has shifted dramatically. Cross -border and air strikes in India have become a new norm, causing revenge from Pakistan. This further strengthened the already changing situation.

Once again, according to experts, India is in flight between escalation and restraint – a delicate balance of response and curb. One person who understands this repetitive cycle is Ozji Bisaria, the former High Commissioner of India in Pakistan during the Pulvama attack, which seized its consequences in its memoir, anger management: problem diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan.

“There are amazing parallels between the consequences of the pullaam bombing and the murder in the funeral,” Mr. Bisaria told me on Thursday, 10 days after the last attack.

However, he notes, Molar means a change. Unlike Pulvama and Uri, which are aimed at security forces, this attack hit civilians – tourists from all over India – causing memories of Mumbai’s 2008 attacks. “This attack carries elements of the pulvama, but much more Mumbai,” he explains.

“We are again in the conflict, and the story unfolds almost the same,” says Mr. Bisaria.

A week after Delhi’s last attack, Delhi quickly moved with measures: closing the main crossing of the border, suspending a key water distribution contract, exile diplomats and stopping most visas for Pakistani citizens – what days to leave. In recent days, troops on both sides exchanged intermittent fire.

Delhi also banned all the Pakistani plane – commercial and military – from the air space, reflecting the previous step of Islamabad. Pakistan avenged his own suspension in a visa and rejected the 1972 peace treaty with India. .

In Memoir, Mr. Bisaria tells about India’s response after Pulvama’s attack on February 14, 2019.

After the morning he was summoned in Delhi when the government quickly moved to stop the trade – Recalling the status of the most popular PakistanProvided in 1996. In the following days, the Security Committee (CCS) introduced 200% of customs duties on Pakistani goods, effectively stopping imports and suspended trade in weight.

Mr. Bisaria notes that a wider set of measures for scaling with Pakistan was proposed, most of which were further implemented.

These included the suspension of a cross -border train known as Samjhauta Express, and bus service connecting Delhi and Lahore; Postponing negotiations between border guards on both sides and talks on historical Corridor card To one of the most holy shrines of Sikhism, stopping the issuance of a visa, the cessation of the sacral border, the ban on the Indian journey to Pakistan and the suspension of flights between the two countries.

“How difficult it was to build trust, I thought. And how easy it was to break it,” Mr. Bisaria writes.

“All confidence enhancement measures planned, agreed and implemented over the years in these difficult relationships can be cut off in a yellow notebook in minutes.”

The force of the Indian Verkhovna Commission in Islamabad was reduced from 110 to 55 after Pulvama. (Now it stands 30 after the moon attack.) India has also launched a diplomatic offensive.

A day after the attack, the then Foreign Minister Viji Gokhale informed messengers from 25 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Russia and France, the role of Jaishe-Mahammad (Jem), Pakistan’s militant group and accused Pakistan as state policy. Jem, appointed terrorist organization India, UN, UK and USA, had took responsibility for bombing.

The diplomatic offensive of India continued on February 25, 10 days after the attack, clicking on the Jema Jemo Masood AzharThe reign of the UN Committee on the UN Committee and the Submission in the “Autonomous Terror List” in the EU.

While there was pressure to cancel Treaty on waters Indo . In total, 48 bilateral agreements were considered to suspend. Delhi convened a comprehensive meeting, which led to unanimous permission.

At the same time, communication channels remained open-including the hotline between the General Directors of the Military Action of both countries (DGMO), a key link to military contact, as well as both high commissions. In 2019, as now, Pakistan said the attack was “Operation False-Flag”.

Such This time More than 80 “respects” – local supporters who may have provided material and technical assistance, shelter and exploration militants from a Pakistani group, took place in Kashmir. Radnate Singh, the then Minister of Internal Affairs of India, visited Jammu and Kashmir, and also prepared a dossier -still and suspected criminals.

At a meeting with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sushma Svara, Mr. Bisaria told her that “India’s diplomatic variants in the fight against a terrorist attack were limited.”

“She gave me the impression that some tough actions were at an angle, after which, I should expect the role of diplomacy to expand,” Mr. Bisaria writes.

On February 26, Indian airstrikes are the first on the international border since 1971 – aimed at the Gemma training camp.

Six hours later, the Indian Foreign Minister announced that the strikes had killed a “very large number of” militants and commanders. Pakistan was rapidly denied a lawsuit. Delhi has more high -level meetings in Delhi.

The crisis has grown dramatically the next morning, February 27, when Pakistan launched air raids.

In the next dog fighting, an Indian fighter was shot down, and his pilot, the wing commander, Abkhinandan, was thrown and landed in Kashmir, which was introduced to Pakistan. The detained by Pakistani troops, his detention on the enemy’s territory caused a wave of national concern and further strengthened the tension between two nuclear armed neighbors.

Mr. Bisaria writes India, which activates several diplomatic channels, and US and UK messengers who press Islamabad. The Indian message was “any attempt by Pakistan to extend the situation or harm the pilot, will escalate in India.”

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan announced the release of the pilot on February 28, with A transfer that arises on 1 March Under the prisoner of war. Pakistan presented this step as a “gesture of goodwill” aimed at de -escalation.

Until March 5, when the dust that settled from Pulvama, Balacott and the Return of the pilot, the political temperature of India has cooled down. The Cabinet’s Security Committee has decided to return the High Commissioner of India back to Pakistan, signaling the transition to diplomacy.

“I arrived in Islamabad on March 10, 22 days after the departure after Pulvama. The most serious military exchange after Cargil was under less than a month,” Mr. Bisaria writes, “Bisaria”, “writes,”

“India was ready to give old -fashioned diplomacy another chance …. This is when India reached a strategic and military goal, and Pakistan has declared the concept of victory for its home audience.”

Mr. Bisaria called it “testing and entertaining time” to become a diplomat. This time, he notes, the main difference is that the purpose was the Indian civilians, and the attack happened “ironically when the situation in Kashmir has improved significantly.”

He views the escalation as inevitable, but notes that also “de -escalation instinct as well as escalation instinct.” When the Security Cabinet Committee (CCS) is found during such conflicts, their decisions weigh the economic impact of conflicts and seek measures that harm Pakistan without causing reactions against India.

“The body language and optics are similar (this time),” he says, but emphasizes what he sees the most significant step: the threat to India will cancel the Indo Waters. “If India was acting on it, it would have long -term, serious consequences for Pakistan.”

“Remember, we’re still in the center of the crisis,” says Mr. Bisaria. “We have not yet seen any kinetic (military) action.”