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A general view of the container terminal in the port of Tinwan from Port Tindao, Porto in Shandong province, China, March 17, 2023.
Cfoto | Future Edition Gets the image
In March, China’s exports jumped more than expected when the businesses were overloading the weekend to avoid non -US tariffs, while imports are expanding because sluggish domestic demand remains.
Last month, exports jumped by 12.4% in US dollars compared to a year earlier, according to customs authorities on Monday, which significantly exceeds the Reuters survey by 4.4% and marking the largest jump since October last year.
Imports in March decreased by 4.3% compared to a year, compared to economists’ expectations by 2% decrease.
In the first two months of the year in China was exports in China slowed more than expectedGrowth of only 2.3% per year, marking the slowest growth since April 2024. Imports scored more steep than expected, 8.4% compared to a year ago, their sharp drop since mid -2013.
“Exports are likely to weaken in the coming months when the American tariffs (which) have soared,” said Zhang Zhang, the president and the chief economist in Pinpoint Asset Management, adding that “in the short term I expect chaos in the supply chains and potential.”
Zhang said the trade policy remained very uncertain, making problems for businesses that seek to set up supply chains and capital expenses. “Even if the firms decide to transfer their supply networks, it takes time to create factories.”
The Chinese leadership has set an ambitious annual annual growth goal this year, and this is more difficult to achieve, given the prospects of escalation of the trade war and insufficient domestic consumption.
Since the inauguration of US President Donald Trump in January he imposed A total of 145% of tariffs With all the imports from China, including 20% duty, allegedly related to Beijing’s role in Fentanyl’s trade.
China has abandoned tit fares, including up to 15%focused on selected American goods and on board tariffs 125% in the last revenge Last Friday.
At a press conference, Lingjun Wang, Deputy Customs Administration, said at a press conference that the “violent use of the tariff tariffs” created winds for global transactions, CNBC translation, repeating Beijing’s call to negotiate with Washington.
China “will” carry out all the counterman announced by the United States strictly in accordance with the law, “continuing to open its economy for mutually profitable trade and investment cooperation with the countries of the world, Van said.
Pressure from Chinese officials has released stronger stimulation measures to support domestic consumption and housing market while reducing the economy’s dependence on export and investment.
The data published last week showed that Chinese consumers remain reluctant to spend and consumer prices are in the second month in a row, while manufacturers are falling on the 29th consecutive month.
There are several investment banks switched to China’s growth forecasts This year, referring to the influence of significant growth in the US on Chinese goods.
Last week, Goldman Sachs, the last one that entered the ranks, expects that the second largest economy in the world will grow by only 4.0% this year, which is 0.5 percentage point from the previous forecast. Although he believes that Beijing will further strengthen the policy to resist the violation of the tariffs, the Bank of Wall Rate believes that measures may not “fully compensate for the negative tariff effect.”
China must release its GDP growth figure for the first quarter on Wednesday, after which a high -level meeting of its higher -level decisions, known as the Politburo at the end of this month, took place. At the meeting, politicians will open more incentive measures to increase domestic demand and compensation for trading shock.
– Evelyn Chen in CNBC contributed to this story.