In difficult Sri Lanka, it will be difficult to fulfill the promises of the new leader

The stunning election victories of the new left-leaning president and his party have changed Sri Lanka’s political landscape, but the new leaders of the cash-strapped island are quickly realizing that campaign promises are easier to make than to keep.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake a great win in the presidential election in September, his National People’s Power (NPP) alliance quickly followed in the parliamentary election.

He and his supporters want the new year to be a turning point for the country, which is trying to recover from a devastating economic crisis and years of bad governance.

However, they have limited room for maneuver to fulfill the promises to voters who expect big things from the new government.

After the 2022 financial crash, the economic recovery has been fragile and Sri Lanka is far from out of the woods.

In November, the NPP won 159 seats in the 225-member assembly – an unprecedented two-thirds majority – giving Dissanayake a broad mandate to push through major economic and constitutional reforms.

However, even as the results came in, the new president had to prepare to meet a visiting delegation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with whom the outgoing government had agreed a $2.9bn (£2.31bn) aid package. .

The IMF deal was controversial as it led to severe austerity measures, tax hikes and cuts to energy subsidies – hitting ordinary citizens hard.

During the campaign, Dissanayake and his alliance promised to renegotiate parts of the agreement with the IMF.

But in his speech before the new parliament, he made a U-turn.

“The economy is in such a state that it cannot withstand even the slightest shock… There is no room for error,” Dissanayake said.

“This is not the time to discuss whether the terms (of the IMF loan) are good or bad, whether the agreement is good for us or not… The process took about two years and we cannot start all over again. “

The overwhelming verdict of voters in favor of the nuclear power plant is seen as the culmination of a popular uprising caused by the economic crisis. Rebellion President Gathabai Rajapaksa was overthrown in the summer of 2022, when Sri Lanka ran out of foreign currency and struggled to import food and fuel.

The country previously declared bankruptcy after defaulting on about $46 billion in foreign debt. India, China and Japan are among those who borrowed billions of dollars.

Recent election results also reflected people’s anger at established political parties — former presidents Mahinda Rajapaksa and Ranil Wickremesinghe, among others — for failing to deal with the economic collapse.

“One of the priorities for Dissanayake will be to provide some economic relief to the people due to excessive taxation and the cost of living crisis. Debt management is another big challenge,” veteran political analyst Professor Jayadeva Uyangoda told the BBC.

So far, the massive political change doesn’t seem to have affected people like Niluka Dilrukshi, a mother of four who lives in the suburbs of the capital, Colombo. Her husband works part-time, and the family is still struggling.

BBC talked to her about a sharp increase in the cost of living in January 2022, a few months before the outbreak of mass protests.

At the time, she said, her family ate only two meals a day instead of three, and the children were given only vegetables and rice because of the high cost of fish and meat.

“We are still struggling to make ends meet and nothing has changed. The price of rice, which is a staple food, has risen even more. We don’t get any help from the government,” says Ms. Dilrukshi.

People like her want the new government to take immediate measures to reduce the cost of basic necessities. Sri Lanka is an import-dependent country and needs foreign currency to import food and medicine.

For now, Colombo can keep its foreign exchange reserves as it has suspended debt repayments.

The real fight, experts say, will probably start in the next three to four years, when it starts paying back the debt.

People’s perception of President Dissanayake and his new government may change if their living standards do not change in the next two to three years.

“People have given him enormous powers. The IMF should respect this by allowing it to provide some assistance to the people through social welfare programmes,” says Professor Uyangoda.

Dissanayake also has to contend with India and China vying for influence in Sri Lanka, where both have invested heavily in recent years.

“Both India and China will try to include Colombo in their sphere of influence. I think the new government’s foreign policy will be very pragmatic, not aligning itself with anyone,” says Professor Uyangoda.

In a cautious diplomatic maneuver, Dissanayake chose Delhi as his first official overseas destination in mid-December. During the visit, India promised to supply liquefied natural gas for Sri Lanka’s power plants and to work on connecting the power grids of the two countries in the long term.

China’s growing presence in Sri Lanka, especially calls by Chinese “research” vessels to ports on the island – so close to India’s southern tip – has raised concerns in Delhi.

“I have assured the Prime Minister of India that we will not allow our land to be used in any way to the detriment of India’s interests,” Dissanayake said after talks with Narendra Modi.

Delhi will no doubt be pleased with this assurance, but Dissanayake will find out what Beijing has in store when he visits China in mid-January.