If the supreme leader appears, it will lead the changed Iran

Having spent almost two weeks in a secret bunker somewhere in Iran during the war of his country with Israel, the supreme leader Ayatalai Ali Khamenei, 86, may want to take advantage of the ceasefire.

It is believed that he was covered in dishonest, because the fear of being killed by Israel. Even top state officials apparently had no contact with him.

He would be good to be careful despite the delicate ceasefire that US President Donald Trump and Emir Qatar. Although, as reportedly, President Trump said Israel not to kill Iran’s supreme leader, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not rule out this.

If – or really when – he goes out of the hide, he will see the landscape of death and destruction. It will undoubtedly still appear on state television, stating the victory in the conflict. It is fascinating to restore your image. But he will face new realities – even a new era.

The war left the country significantly weakened, and it has decreased.

During the war, Israel quickly took over Iran’s control and attacked its military infrastructure. The best commanders of the Revolutionary Guard and the army were quickly killed.

The degree of damage to the military is still unclear and disputed, but repeated explosions of the army and revolutionary bases and installations indicate a significant degradation of Iran’s military power. Militarization has long used a large number of resources of the country.

Well -known Iran’s nuclear facilities, which have earned the country for almost two decades of the United States and international sanctions, with approximately the cost of hundreds of billion dollars, now damaged from airstrikes, although it is difficult to evaluate. What was everything for, many are asking.

The huge number of Iranians exclusively contains Ayatollah Khamenei, who first became the leader in 1989, responsible for the creation of Iran at the course of collision with Israel and the US, who eventually brought a significant destruction of his country and people.

They will blame him of achieving the ideological purpose of the destruction of Israel – that many Iranians do not support. They will blame him for perception as stupid – his belief that the achievement of nuclear status will make his regime invincible. The sanctions were crippled by the Iranian economy, reducing the upper exporter of oil to the poor and the shadow of its former I am.

“It is difficult to estimate how long the Iranian regime can survive with such significant tension, but it looks like the beginning of the end,” says Professor Lina Hatib, visiting the University of Harvard.

“Ali Homena will probably become the last” supreme leader of the “Islamic Republic in the full sense of the word.”

Above were noise with dissent. In the midst of the war, one semi -final Iranian news agency reported that some major figures of the regime call on the quieter religious scientists based in the Holy City of QOM, separated from Ayatollah to intervene and make changes to the leadership.

“According to Professor Ali Ansari, director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at Saint Endrus University.

“It is quite clear that there are huge differences in the leadership, and there is a huge misfortune among ordinary people.”

Over the past two weeks, many Iranians have struggled with the contradictory feelings of the need to defend their country compared to their deep hatred of the regime. They rallied for the country without going out to protect the regime, but look after each other. There were reports of great solidarity and intimacy.

People in cities and villages outside the urban areas opened their doors to those who escaped from the bombing in their cities, the shopkeepers who did not plan the basic goods, the neighbors knocked on each other to ask if they needed anything.

But many people also knew that Israel is probably looking for changes in Iran. Changing the regime is what many Iranians want. However, they can draw a line on changing the regime developed and imposed by foreign states.

In its almost 40 -year management of Ayatollah Khamenei, one of the longest modern autocrats in the world, cut any opposition in the country. Opposition political leaders are either in prison or escaped from the country. Abroad, opposition figures were unable to formulate a position that unites the opposition to the regime.

They were ineffective in creating any similarity of an organization capable of capturing in the country when there is an opportunity.

And during the two weeks of the war, when the collapse of the regime could become an opportunity if the war continued mercilessly, many believed that the likely scenario was not absorbed the day after the opposition, but the origin of the country into chaos and lawlessness.

“It is unlikely that the Iranian regime will be overthrown through the domestic opposition. The regime remains a strong home and enhances household oppression to crush the disagreement,” says Professor Hatib.

Now Iranians are afraid of further pushes the regime. In the last two weeks after the outbreak of the war with Israel, at least six people were shot on espionage for Israel. Authorities say about 700 people have paid for it.

One Iranian woman told the BBC Persian what she is afraid of more than the death and destruction of the war is a regime that is injured and humiliated, turning her anger against her own people.

“If the regime is unable to supply basic goods and services, it will grow anger and disappointment,” says Professor Ansari.

“I see it as the process set. I do not see it as something that, in a popular sense, to use” used until “until the bombing is over.”

Few people in Iran believe that the ceasefire will last on Monday – and many believe that Israel is not over when it has a complete advantage in the sky over Iran.

The only thing that seems to have escaped destruction is Iran’s ballistic bins that Israel have been difficult to find when they are located in tunnels under the mountains across the country.

The Chief of Staff of Israeli Defense Forces, Eala Zamir, said Israel had started his attack on Iran, knowing that “Iran had about 2500 surface-surface missiles.” The missiles that fired Iran caused significant death and destruction in Israel.

Israel will be concerned about the rest of the possible 1500 in the hands of the Iranian side.

Tel -Vavve, Washington and other western and regional capitals have a serious problem that Iran can still hurry to build a nuclear bomb, and what he continued to deny while trying to do.

Although Iran’s nuclear facilities have almost certainly been created and may have made useless during Israel and US blasts, Iran said it had moved its high -enriched uranium to a safe secret place.

According to experts, 60% uranium, when enriched up to 90%, which is a relatively easy step, is enough for nine bombs. Before the start of the war, Iran announced that he created another new secret facility for enrichment, which was supposed to quickly come into the stream.

The Iranian Parliament voted in favor of dramatically reduced cooperation with the UN Nuclear Path, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This still requires approval, but if it passes Iran, which is in one step from the exit of the nuclear non-proliferation of the contract, the NPT-like Hardliners, who support the pressure of the supreme leader to the breakthrough of Iran to build a bomb.

Ayatollah khamenei can be sure his survivor’s mode is simple. But at the age of 86 and patients, he also knows that his own days can be numbered, and he may want to ensure the continuity of the regime with an orderly transition of power – to another senior clergy or even a leadership council.

In any case, the rest of the leading commanders of the Revolutionary Guard, who were faithful to the supreme leader, may seek power from the person.

Credit on Figure: Pacific Press via Getty

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